Ethiopia Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

Date: January 27, 2016
Pages: 64
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: Download
ID: E6C2474E6A6EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Production prospects look broadly favourable for the Ethiopian agriculture sector over the long term. This will largely be due to more investment in the sector, along with higher incomes contributing to consumption growth. We believe the sugar sector has the most potential, as investments in new sugar refineries will make sugar one of the few reliable agricultural exports over the forecast period. In terms of grains, the country's food security will remain in a precarious situation due to recent droughts linked to El NiƱo. Moreover, even with recent multinational interest in the country's farmland, Ethiopia is most likely to remain a net grains importer over the medium term.

Key Forecasts
  • Sugar production growth to 2019/20: 148.8% to 746,500 tonnes. Investment by the state-run sugar corporation is likely to lead to a significant increase in the area dedicated to sugar production. The aim of the plan is to make Ethiopia one of the world's top 10 largest sugar exporters.
  • Coffee consumption growth to 2020: 4.2% to 3.1mn bags. Economic gains will boost consumption, although Ethiopians already have high per capita consumption rates compared with neighbouring Kenya and Uganda.
  • 2016 real GDP growth: 7.8% (down from 8.1% in 2015; predicted to average 7.5% from 2016 until 2020).
  • 2016 consumer price inflation: 10.5% average in 2016 (up from 10.4% in 2015).
BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Sugar Outlook
  Table: Ethiopia - Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Key Risks To Outlook
  Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Ethiopia 2012-2020)
Grains Outlook
  Table: Ethiopia - Grains Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Key Risks To Outlook
  Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Ethiopia 2012-2020)
  Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Ethiopia 2014-2020)
Coffee Outlook
  Table: Ethiopia - Coffee Production & Consumption Outlook
  Table: Key Risks To Outlook
  Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Ethiopia 2012-2020)
Commodities Price Analysis
Global Commodities Strategy
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Featured Analysis
African Agriculture: Lower Growth Over Coming Years
  Table: African Union CAADP Objectives To 2025
  Table: Indonesia - Select Inward Cocoa Investment Projects
  Table: Most Popular Brands Are Foreign - New Tractor Sales Current Market Share In South Africa In 2014 (%)
Upstream Analysis
Africa GM Outlook
  Table: Farm Size By Region
Africa Machinery Outlook
  Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions
  Table: Farm Size By Region (2012)
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
Regional Overview
Middle East & Africa Regional Overview
Demographic Forecast
  Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
  Table: Key Population Ratios (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
  Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group % (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
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