East Africa Agribusiness Report Q4 2012

Date: September 12, 2012
Pages: 136
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Uganda’s coffee sector is expected to see limited production growth in the short term, as the country’s coffee trees have long surpassed their peak potential. However, we remain positive about the sector’s expansion in the longer run, as tree yields are likely to improve, as will crop resistance to disease. We are less optimistic regarding the grains sector and expect production to increase only slightly in the long term, mainly as a result of increased export demand. Uganda’s food security is expected to remain relatively stable, as the price of rice, which is considered a staple good in the country, is cooling off. Corn prices are also likely to decline in the coming weeks as the bulk of newly harvested crops reaches the main markets.

Key Views
  • Coffee production growth to 2015/16: 17.7% to 2.7mn tonnes. The Uganda Coffee Production Campaign has developed new disease-resistant coffee trees; this is expected to boost yields over our forecast period. High coffee prices will very likely encourage greater fertiliser use.
  • Corn production growth to 2016: 19.5% to 1.6mn tonnes. Growth will mainly come from greater export potential, as the country is the main corn exporter in the region save South Africa.
  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: US$1.1mn in 2012; growth to average 4.9% annually between 2010/11 and 2015/16.
  • 2012 real GDP growth: 4.8% (down from 5.9% in 2011; predicted to average 6.8% over 2011- 2016).
  • Consumer price inflation: 7.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) annual average in 2012 (up from 27% y-o-y in 2011).
Key Developments

We continue to forecast a reduction in Uganda grains production for the 2011/12 season, largely due to the late onset of the rainy season, which lasts from March to May. Recent weather forecasts indicate that the country is expected to receive slightly below-average rainfall for the duration of the 2011/12 season. Nevertheless, the country is still expected to be a net corn exporter, a relatively rare feat for countries in the region. The Ugandan corn harvest is a significant part of regional food security and is harvested at several different times of the year starting in June and ending in October. As a result of sufficient 2012 aggregate grain output in the country, overall food security in the country is expected to be stable. In the capital, Kampala, maize prices are relatively high as the lean season progresses and household stocks are gradually being depleted. That said, prices are likely to decline in the coming weeks as the bulk of newly harvested crops reaches Uganda’s main markets.

For the 2011/12 and 2012/13 seasons, we are forecasting slightly higher coffee production in Uganda, as farmers have increased purchases of fertilisers in recent years on the back of high prices. Even though fertilisers and other inputs remain expensive by historical standards, robusta prices peaked at approximately the same time as arabica prices, meaning that the profitability of the entire sector encouraged farmers to risk purchasing additional inputs. Strong export demand will also support production, as exports are a key source of revenue for Uganda’s coffee sector. Moreover, coffee exports contribute around 30% of all foreign exchange earnings for Uganda.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Uganda Agricultural SWOT
Uganda Business Environment SWOT
Kenya Agriculture SWOT
Kenya Business Environment SWOT
Ethiopia Agriculture SWOT
Ethiopia Business Environment SWOT
Supply & Demand Analysis
Uganda Grains Outlook
  Table: Uganda Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
  Table: Uganda Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Kenya Grains Outlook
  Table: Kenya Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
  Table: Kenya Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
  Table: Kenya Barley Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
  Table: Kenya Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
  Table: Kenya Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
  Table: Kenya Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Ethiopia Grains Outlook
  Table: Ethiopia Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
  Table: Ethiopia Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
  Table: Ethiopia Barley Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
  Table: Ethiopia Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
  Table: Ethiopia Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
  Table: Ethiopia Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Uganda Coffee Outlook
  Table: Uganda Coffee Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
  Table: Uganda Coffee Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Kenya Coffee Outlook
  Table: Kenya Coffee Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
  Table: Kenya Coffee Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Ethiopia Coffee Outlook
  Table: Ethiopia Coffee Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
  Table: Ethiopia Coffee Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Kenya Sugar Outlook
  Table: Kenya Sugar Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
  Table: Kenya Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Ethiopia Sugar Outlook
  Table: Ethiopia Sugar Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
  Table: Ethiopia Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Commodity Price Analysis
Monthly Grains Update
East Africa Agribusiness Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page
Wheat: Little Potential For Export Restrictions
Corn: US Downgrades Tighten Market Further
Soybean: South America In The Spotlight
Rice: The Only Well-Supplied Grain Market
  Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts
Monthly Softs Update
Cocoa: Looking Supported
Coffee: Supported In Short Term
Palm Oil: Heading Back To Support
Sugar: Searching For Support
Cotton: Still In A Downward Trend Channel
  Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Africa GM Seeds Outlook
  Table: Select Countries – Global Rank By Corn Yields In 2011/12
EMEA Machinery Outlook
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
  Table: Uganda – Food Consumption
  Table: Uganda – Sugar Confectionery
  Table: Uganda – Dairy
  Table: Uganda – Beer
  Table: Uganda – Carbonated Soft Drinks
  Table: Uganda – Tea
Mass Grocery Retail
  Table: Uganda – Mass Grocery Retail
  Table: Kenya – Food Consumption
  Table: Kenya – Meat
  Table: Kenya – Fish
  Table: Kenya – Dairy
  Table: Kenya – Snack Foods
  Table: Kenya – Beer
  Table: Kenya – Carbonated Drinks
  Table: Kenya – Fruit/Vegetable Juice
Mass Grocery Retail
  Table: Kenya – Mass Grocery Retail Sales
Country Snapshot
  Table: Uganda’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000)
  Table: Uganda’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
  Table: Uganda’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
  Table: Uganda’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
East Africa Agribusiness Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page
  Table: Kenya’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000)
  Table: Kenya’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
  Table: Kenya’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
  Table: Kenya’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
  Table: Ethiopia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
  Table: Ethiopia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
  Table: Ethiopia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
  Table: Ethiopia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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