China Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

Date: September 14, 2016
Pages: 114
Price:
US$ 1,295.00
Publisher: BMI RESEARCH
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: CF1B2779CA7EN
Leaflet:

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: China's weight in the global agricultural sector is growing, as the country has an increasing impact on international production balances and prices. China will maintain its appetite for key commodities for the foreseeable future, with particular potential for production growth in sugar, dairy and livestock. High demand growth, strong government support and the potential for investment and consolidation in these industries will help them outperform in the coming years. However, the agribusiness sector is experiencing challenging times, seen in the slowdown in meat and milk powder consumption in 2015.

Key Forecasts
  • Soybean production growth to 2019/20: 0.9% to 12.3mn tonnes. In spite of the increase in production in 2016/17, soybean production will remain low in China as the crop lack attractiveness for farmers.
  • Pork production growth to 2019/20: 13.0% to 62.1mn tonnes. Increased production continues to be encouraged on the back of elevated local livestock prices. The increased availability of vaccinations and the ongoing commercialisation of the industry are also likely to boost output.
  • Sugar consumption growth to 2020: 16.7% to 19.6mn tonnes. Consumption will be boosted by rising income, which will support demand for products in key industries, such as the confectionery, dairy, beverage, and food processing
  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD1,327mn in 2016 (up 2.9% compared with 2015, growth forecast to average 4.3% annually between 2016 and 2020).
  • 2016 real GDP growth: 6.3% (down from 6.9% in 2015, forecast to average 5.8% between 2016 and 2020).
  • 2016 consumer price inflation: 1.8% y-o-y average (up from 1.5% in 2015, forecast to average 2.3% between 2016 and 2020).
  • 2016 Central Bank policy rate: 4.10% eop (down from 4.35% eop in 2015; forecast to average 4.10% eop between 2016 and 2020.
BMI Industry View
SWOT
Industry Forecast
Grains Outlook
Latest Updates
  Table: China - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook
  Table: China - Risks To Grains Outlook
Structural Trends
  Table: China Minimum Price Support Programmes
  Table: Grains Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020)
Rice Outlook
Latest Updates
  Table: China - Rice Production And Consumption Outlook
  Table: China - Risks To Rice Outlook
Structural Trends
  Table: China Grains Procurement Prices (CNY/tonne)
  Table: Rice Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020)
Oilseeds Outlook
Latest Updates
  Table: China - Oilseeds Production And Consumption Outlook
  Table: China - Risks To Oilseeds Outlook
Structural Trends
  Table: Soybean Production & Consumption (China 2012-2020)
  Table: Palm Oil Consumption (China 2013-2020)
Sugar Outlook
Latest Updates
  Table: China - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook
  Table: China - Risks To Sugar Outlook
Structural Trends
  Table: China - Sugarcane Floor Price (CNY/tonne) & Production By Province
  Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020)
Cotton Outlook
Latest Updates
  Table: China - Cotton Production And Consumption Outlook
  Table: China - Risks To Cotton Outlook
Structural Trends
  Table: Cotton Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020)
Dairy Outlook
Latest Updates
  Table: China - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook
  Table: China - Risks To Dairy Outlook
Structural Trends
  Table: Selected Countries - Milk Production Cost, USD/100 kg milk ECM
  Table: Dairy Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020)
Livestock Outlook
Latest Updates
  Table: China - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook
  Table: China - Risks To Livestock Outlook
Structural Trends
  Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020)
Commodities Price Analysis
Global - Global Commodities Strategy
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Featured Analysis
13TH FIVE-YEAR PLAN: IMPLICATIONS FOR AGRIBUSINESS
Upstream Analysis
Asia GM Outlook
  Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares)
Asia Machinery Outlook
  Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
Downstream Analysis
Food
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Food Sales (China 2013-2020)
Regional Overview
Competitive Landscape
  Table: China - Major Agribusiness Companies
Appendix
13TH FIVE-YEAR PLAN: KEY POINTS
Summary Of Contents
  Charter 1: OVERVIEW
  Table: Targets
  Charter 2: INNOVATION TO DRIVE DEVELOPMENT
  Charter 3: ECONOMIC INSTITUTIONS
  Charter 4: MODERNISATION OF THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
  Charter 5: INDUSTRIES
  Charter 6: EXPAND THE NETWORK ECONOMY
  Charter 7: BUILD A MODERN INFRASTRUCTURE NETWORK
  Charter 8: NEW-TYPE URBANISATION
  Charter 9: COORDINATION OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
  Charter 10: ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
  Charter 11: CONTINUE OPENING UP
Others:
Demographic Forecast
  Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025)
  Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025)
  Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
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