China Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

Date: March 2, 2016
Pages: 97
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: China's weight in the global agricultural sector is swelling, as the country has a growing impact on international production balances and prices. China will maintain its appetite for key commodities for the foreseeable future, with particular potential for production growth in sugar, dairy and livestock. High demand growth, strong government support and the potential for investment and consolidation in these industries will help them outperform in the coming years. However, the agribusiness sector is experiencing challenging times, seen in the slowdown in meat and milk powder consumption in 2015.

Key Forecasts
  • Corn production growth to 2019/20: 12.3% to 242mn tonnes. Given the decrease in public support to corn production, output expansion will be driven by a steady improvements in corn yields and the probable adoption of GM corn in the coming years. China's production deficit will amount around 6mn tonnnes by the end of our forecast period.
  • Pork production growth to 2019/20: 16.1% to 65.5mn tonnes. Increased production continues to be encouraged on the back of elevated local livestock prices. The increased availability of vaccinations and the ongoing commercialisation of the industry are also likely to boost output.
  • Sugar consumption growth to 2020: 18.5% to 20mn tonnes. Consumption will be boosted by rising income, which will support demand for products in key industries, such as the confectionery, dairy, beverage, and food processing
  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD1,410mn in 2016 (up 4.7% compared with 2015, growth forecast to average 4.2% annually between 2016 and 2020).
  • 2016 real GDP growth: 6.3% (down from 6.9% expected in 2015, forecast to average 5.7% between 2016 and 2020).
  • 2016 consumer price inflation: 1.5% y-o-y ave (up from 1.3% expected in 2015, forecast to average 2.3% between 2016 and 2020).
BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Grains Outlook
  Table: China - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook
  Table: China - Risks To Grains Outlook
  Table: Grains Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020)
Rice Outlook
  Table: China - Rice Production And Consumption Outlook
  Table: China - Risks To Rice Outlook
  Table: China Grain Procurement Prices (CNY/tonne)
  Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Cina 2013-2020)
Oilseeds Outlook
  Table: China - Soybean Production And Consumption Outlook
  Table: China - Risks To Soybean Outlook
  Table: Soybean Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020)
Sugar Outlook
  Table: China - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook
  Table: China - Risks To Sugar Outlook
  Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020)
Cotton Outlook
  Table: China - Cotton Production And Consumption Outlook
  Table: China - Risks To Cotton Outlook
  Table: Cotton Production & Consumption (China 2012-2020)
Dairy Outlook
  Table: China - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook
  Table: China - Risks To Dairy Outlook
  Table: Dairy Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020)
Livestock Outlook
  Table: China - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook
  Table: China - Risks To Livestock Outlook
  Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020)
Featured Analysis
Provincial Agricultural Landscape: Diverging Trends
  Table: China - Agribusiness Production By Provinces, 2014 (% of total)
  Table: China - Agribusiness Production Growth By Provinces (% chg between 2010 and 2014)
Commodities Price Analysis
Global Commodities Strategy
  Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Asia Machinery Outlook
  Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
Asia GM Outlook
  Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares)
Downstream Analysis
Regional Overview
  Table: Impact Of El NiƱo On Crops
Competitive Landscape
  Table: China - Major Agribusiness Companies
Demographic Forecast
  Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025)
  Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025)
  Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
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