Venezuela Retail Report Q4 2015

Date: October 14, 2015
Pages: 62
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Our projections have been downgraded for growth rates across all sub-sectors of the retail sector. High inflation is a key driver behind this trend. The government has implemented price controls on certain goods, subsidising basics such as milk and soap. However, there are now severe shortages for many basic products and food staples, which has led to many retailers to limit the number of purchases consumers are able to make. The issue of chronic shortages has been compounded by currency controls which have restricted the number of dollars available for the purchase of imports.

As a result of high inflation and a chronic shortage of basic goods in Venezuela, together with an unstable economic outlook we maintain our negative outlook for household spending trends over the remainder of 2015 and the first half of 2016, and this will weigh on the retail sector's growth potential. Moreover, the tough regulatory environment looks set to remain a barrier to entry for international investors within the retail sector until 2019, while the difficulties surrounding importing items poses a significant risk, as does the ever thriving domestic black market. However, as the economy recovers, we expect the burgeoning middle-class with higher disposable incomes to stimulate growth across the retail sector.
BMI Industry View
Retail SWOT
Industry Forecast
Headline Retail Forecast
  Table: Total Household Spending (Venezuela 2012-2019)
  Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Venezuela 2012-2019)
  Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Venezuela 2012-2019)
  Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Venezuela 2012-2019)
Retail Sector Forecast
Food And Drink
  Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Venezuela 2012-2019)
Clothing And Footwear
  Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Venezuela 2012-2019)
Household Goods
  Table: Household Goods Spending (Venezuela 2012-2019)
Personal Care
  Table: Personal Care Spending (Venezuela 2012-2019)
Household Income And Numbers Forecast
  Table: Household Data, 2011-2018
  Table: Labour Market Data, 2011-2018
Demographic Forecast
  Table: Total Population (Venezuela 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Babies (Venezuela 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Young Children (Venezuela 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Children (Venezuela 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Venezuela 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Young People (Venezuela 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Venezuela 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: 21yrs + (Venezuela 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Young Adults (Venezuela 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Middle Aged (Venezuela 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Urban (Venezuela 2012-2019)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
  Table: Venezuela - Private Consumption Forecasts
  Table: Venezuela - Government Consumption Forecasts
  Table: Venezuela - Fixed Investment Forecasts
  Table: Venezuela - Net Exports Forecasts
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Latin America Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Latin America Retail Risk/Reward Index
Venezuela - Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Malls And Department Stores
Mass Grocery Retail
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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