Venezuela Retail Report Q2 2015

Date: April 15, 2015
Pages: 57
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: As a result of high inflation and a chronic shortage of basic goods in Venezuela the economic outlook remains unstable at the beginning of our period which has seen us forecast negative year-onyear growth rates of total household spending in 2015 and 2016. Moreover, the tough regulatory environment looks set to remain a barrier to entry for international investors within the retail sector until 2019. However, the burgeoning middle-class will stimulate growth in the sector which will see a more positive outlook for retailers by the end of our period. Our projections have been downgraded for growth rates across all sub-sectors of the retail sector and we expect all sub-sectors of the retail sector to experience negative growth, in USD terms, until 2017. High inflation is a key driver behind this trend, with inflation hitting 64% in Q3 2014, and remaining high since.

The government have implemented price controls on certain goods, subsidising basics such as milk and soap however it is such products which are now in severe shortage in Venezuela and have led to many retailers limiting the number of purchases consumers are able to make as well as high queues. The issue of chronic shortages has been compounded by currency controls which have restricted the number of dollars needed for imports. Moreover, price controls and nationalisations have hurt local production which looks likely to lead to a dampening of purchasing power as net income is expected to fall in both 2015 and 2016. We expect this trend to contribute towards the forecasted decline in growth across the retail sector over the next two years as many households will be unable to afford products, particularly imported ones.
BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Headline Retail Forecast
  Table: Total Household Spending (Venezuela 2012-2019)
  Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Venezuela 2012-2019)
  Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Venezuela 2012-2019)
  Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Venezuela 2012-2019)
Retail Sub-Sectors Forecast
Food And Drink
  Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Venezuela 2012-2019)
Clothing And Footwear
  Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Venezuela 2012-2019)
Household Goods
  Table: Household Goods Spending (Venezuela 2012-2019)
Personal Care
  Table: Personal Care Spending (Venezuela 2012-2019)
Household Income And Numbers Forecast
  Table: Household Data, 2011-2018
  Table: Labour Market Data, 2011-2018
Demographic Forecast
  Table: Total Population (Venezuela 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Babies (Venezuela 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Young Children (Venezuela 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Children (Venezuela 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Venezuela 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Young People (Venezuela 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Venezuela 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: 21yrs + (Venezuela 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Young Adults (Venezuela 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Middle Aged (Venezuela 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Urban (Venezuela 2012-2019)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Latin America Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Latin America Retail Risk/Reward Index
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Retail Subsectors
Competitive Landscape
Malls And Department Stores
Mass Grocery Retail
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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