Russia Retail Report Q4 2012

Date: September 19, 2012
Pages: 90
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: R9AD0428038EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

The Russian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Russia’s economic outlook of weakening external demand and continued uncertainty over the policy environment.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Russian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the ongoing crisis in the country’s main export market, Europe, on the Russian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.

The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Russian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

Russian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 55% to 2016, compared with a regional growth average of 44%. The country comes third in BMI’s Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it underperforms significantly for Risk.

Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to grow much faster than overall food sales throughout the forecast period, by more than 220% to US$275.18bn by 2016. This would take MGR’s share of the overall food market from 36.3% in 2012 to 67.2% by the end of the forecast period.

In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the fact that the Russian government has committed to spending billions on infrastructure over the next 10 years, particularly railroads and highways, which should translate to better logistics for expanding retailers. Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
  • Although strong government revenue flows are less assured in light of a recessionary outlook in Europe and weaker growth at home, BMI has adjusted upwards its real government expenditure growth forecast for 2012, which sees our real GDP growth forecast for Russia this year rise moderately to 3.4% from 3.2% previously.
  • BMI believes that weak external demand and a moderation in oil prices is likely to persist into 2013, when we see growth edging only slightly higher to 3.5% on account of higher fixed investment and improvement in private consumption. Thereafter, we see scope for economic growth to accelerate again, peaking at 4.5% in 2014 and 2015, as the economy benefits from higher spending on infrastructure, especially ahead of the Sochi Winter Olympics in 2014 and the FIFA World Cup in 2016.
  • Despite a surge in real wage growth since the start of the year, BMI sees real private consumption growth slowing somewhat to 4.3% this year, from 6.4% in 2011. We expect higher inflation towards the second half of the year to see real wage growth moderate.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Russia Retail Business Environment SWOT
Russia Political SWOT
Russia Economic SWOT
Market Overview
Current Trends
Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Retail Growth Outlook
  Table: Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2016
  Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2012f
Macroeconomic Outlook
  Table: Economic Activity
Regional Retail Outlook
Central And Eastern Europe Retail Outlook
  Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Trends, 2008-2016
  Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn, unless stated)
  Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales By % Share, 2009-2016
Regional Retail Trends
Risk/Reward Ratings
  Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
Russia’s Retail Rating
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Mass Grocery Retail
Russia Mass Grocery Retail SWOT
Market Overview
Leading Retailers
  Table: Mass Retail Grocery Market By Number Of Outlets
  Table: Mass Retail Grocery Market By Value
  Table: Average Sales Value per Retail Outlet – 2011
Industry Forecast Scenario
  Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales
  Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type
Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
Russia Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
Market Overview
Russia Retail Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page
  Table: PC Sales, 2008-2016
  Table: AV Sales, 2009-2016
Mobile Handsets
  Table: Mobile Communications, 2008-2016
  Table: Three Most Popular Models In Different Pricing Categories In MTS Retail Network Q311, % Of Total Units Sold
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Electronics Market
  Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2008-2016
Industry Developments
Russia Autos Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
Domestic Sales
  Table: Autos Sales
  Table: Autos Production
  Table: Autos Trade
WTO Membership: Beginning Of A New Age?
Kaliningrad: The New Autos Hub
Russia Demographic Outlook
  Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
  Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
  Table: Russia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
  Table: Russia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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Russia Retail Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,295.00 Nov, 2015 · 67 pages
Russia Retail Report Q2 2016 US$ 1,295.00 Feb, 2016 · 59 pages
Russia Retail Report Q3 2016 US$ 1,295.00 May, 2016 · 61 pages
Russia Retail Sector 2011 US$ 740.00 Sep, 2011 · 52 pages

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