Romania Retail Report Q4 2012

Date: September 19, 2012
Pages: 72
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: R8A710806D4EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

The Romanian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags up short-term concerns about the impact on Romania’s economic outlook of the domestic banking sector's exposure to deleveraging Western European parent banks.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Romanian retail market while minimising investment risk. It also explores the impact of renewed uncertainty over the future of the eurozone on the Romanian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. We analyse the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Romanian retail sector as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

Romanian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 35% to 2016, compared with a regional growth average of 44%. The country comes ninth out of 10 in BMI’s Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs), although it outperforms slightly on the rewards side.

Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to grow by nearly 45%, compared with 22.3% for overall food sales. MGR is predicted to expand its share of the total food market to 58.6% by 2016, when value sales should reach US$12.77bn.

In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the fact that large-scale infrastructure improvement is ongoing and that Romania will receive substantial influxes of EU funds and loans over the coming years. The EUR7.1bn (US$9.2bn) investment into rural development during 2007-2013 forms part of the national budget.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
  • BMI has revised down its forecasts for Romanian real GDP growth in 2012 and 2013. We now expect growth of 1.0% and 2.1% in 2012 and 2013 respectively, from a previous forecast of 1.4% and 2.3% growth. Renewed uncertainty over the future of the eurozone will weigh on Romania's trade and investment flows, while the domestic banking sector's exposure to deleveraging Western European parent banks is set to limit credit availability and weigh on headline growth.
  • BMI has moderately revised down its forecast for 2012 private consumption growth to 2.6%, from 2.8% previously. This remains higher than the 1.3% growth registered in 2011, and we reiterate our expectation for less austere fiscal policy to feed through to higher private consumption. We have similarly revised down our 2013 private consumption growth to 3.8%, from 4.0% previously.
  • BMI has revised down its short-term annual growth forecasts for foreign tourist arrivals to slight negative growth in 2012 of -1.2% (from -0.5% previously), with positive growth of 2.3% in 2013. The long-term outlook for arrivals is favourable, bolstered by the stimulus provided by the EU, the establishment of tourism promotion offices overseas and an enhanced marketing programme to boost interest in the country.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Romania Retail Business Environment SWOT
Romania Political SWOT
Romania Economic SWOT
Market Overview
Current Trends
Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Retail Growth Outlook
  Table: Retail Sales Indicators, 2010-2016
Macroeconomic Outlook
  Table: Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Regional Retail Outlook
Central And Eastern Europe Retail Outlook
  Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Trends, 2008-2016
  Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn, unless stated)
  Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales By % Share, 2009-2016
Regional Retail Trends
Business Environment Outlook
  Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
Romania’s Retail Rating
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Mass Grocery Retail
Romania Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Leading Retailers
  Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Sector By Estimated Number Of Outlets
  Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Sector – Estimated Sales Value By Format
  Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Sector – Average Sales Value Per Retail Outlet – 2011
Industry Forecast Scenario
  Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts
  Table: Mass Grocery Retail By Format (%)
Industry Developments
Romania Autos Industry SWOT
Market Overview
  Table: Romania Car Sales
Electric Vehicles
Used Vehicles
Romania Retail Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page
  Table: Top 20 Used Car Makes
Industry Forecast Scenario
  Table: Autos Sales, Production And Trade, 2011-2016
OTC Pharmaceuticals
Romania Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
  Table: OTC Medicine Sales By Subsector, 2007-2010
  Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2008-2016
Demographic Outlook
  Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
  Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
  Table: Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
  Table: Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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Romania Retail Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,295.00 Nov, 2015 · 66 pages
Romania Retail Report Q3 2016 US$ 1,295.00 Jun, 2016 · 63 pages

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