Poland Retail Report Q3 2016

Date: June 8, 2016
Pages: 62
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Polish GDP contracted by 0.1% y-o-y in Q116, its first contraction since 2012. Despite this, we remain sanguine towards the Polish economy and forecast real GDP growth of 3.7%in 2016 and 3.5% in 2017. This will support rising household incomes, which in turn will benefit the country's retail sector. Maintenance of loose monetary policy in 2016 will support consumer spending, but rising inflation in 2017 on the back of rising commodity prices and base effects wearing off is likely to temper the rate of growth household spending.

Key Views And Developments
  • We expect total household spending to amount to USD263bn in 2016, down by 2.5%, mostly due to the appreciated US dollar. In zloty terms, we expect a rise of 4.4% over the year.
  • Housing and utilities will account for 24.3% of total spending in 2016, reflecting the dominance of essential spending within the Polish household spending budget.
  • The percentage of households in the crucial USD10,000+ net income bracket is expected to reach 62.7% in 2016, representing 8.6mn households.
BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Headline Retail Forecast
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Total Household Spending (Poland 2013-2020)
  Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Poland 2013-2020)
  Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of GDP (Poland 2013-2020)
  Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Poland 2013-2020)
Retail Sub-Sector Forecast
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Food, Drink And Tobacco
  Table: Food, Drink And Tobacco Spending (Poland 2013-2020)
Clothing And Footwear
  Table: Clothing And Footwear Spending (Poland 2013-2020)
Household Goods
  Table: Household Goods Spending (Poland 2013-2020)
Personal Care
  Table: Personal Care Spending (Poland 2013-2020)
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Household Income Data (Poland 2013-2020)
  Table: Labour Market Data (Poland 2013-2020)
Demographic Forecast
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Total Population (Poland 2013-2020)
  Table: Population: Babies (Poland 2013-2020)
  Table: Population: Young Children (Poland 2013-2020)
  Table: Population: Children (Poland 2013-2020)
  Table: Population: Young Teens And Older Children (Poland 2013-2020)
  Table: Population: Young People (Poland 2013-2020)
  Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Poland 2013-2020)
  Table: Population: 21 Years Plus (Poland 2013-2020)
  Table: Population: Young Adults (Poland 2013-2020)
  Table: Population: Middle Aged (Poland 2013-2020)
  Table: Population: Urban/Rural (Poland 2013-2020)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q316
Poland Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Department Stores
Shopping Centres
Clothing And Footwear
Household Goods, Homeware And Home Improvement
Pharmacies And Drug Stores
E-Commerce And Online Marketplaces
Competitive Landscape
Clothing And Footwear
  Table: Selected Clothing And Footwear Retailers
Household Goods, Homeware And Home Improvement
  Table: Selected Household Goods, Homeware And Home Improvement Retailers
  Table: Selected Electronics Retailers
Department Stores
  Table: Selected Department Stores
E-Commerce And Online Marketplaces
  Table: Selected E-commerce Retailers And Online Marketplaces
Drug Stores And Pharmacies
  Table: Selected Drug Stores And Pharmacies
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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