Poland Retail Report Q2 2016

Date: March 9, 2016
Pages: 65
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: PCB9478771CEN

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BMI View: Preliminary real GDP estimates for 2015 indicate that the Polish economy beat expectations, growing by 3.6% against consensus expectations for growth of 3.5%. This continued strong economic performance will support growth in employment opportunities and household incomes, directly benefiting the retail sector. We believe that amendments to the 2016 budget will prove to be growth positive in the short-run and the government's policies to increase social transfers to households via child benefits will also support increases in household consumption.

Key Views & Developments
  • We expect total household spending to amount toUSD272bn in 2016, down by 1.5%, mostly due to appreciated US dollar. In Polish zloty terms, we expect a rise of 4.4% this year.
  • Essential spending will continue to account for the majority of household spending, with the largest sector represented by housing and utilities at 24.3% in 2016.
  • The number of households falling into the key USD10,000+ wage bracket is expected to reach 7.9mn in 2016, representing 57.4% of all households.
BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Headline Retail Forecast
  Table: Total Household Spending (Poland 2013-2020)
  Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Poland 2013-2020)
  Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Poland 2013-2020)
  Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Poland 2013-2020)
Retail Sector Forecast
  Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Poland 2013-2020)
  Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Poland 2013-2020)
  Table: Household Goods Spending (Poland 2013-2020)
  Table: Personal Care Spending (Poland 2013-2020)
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
  Table: Household Income Data (Poland 2013-2020)
  Table: Labour Market Data (Poland 2013-2020)
Demographic Forecast
  Table: Total Population (Poland 2013-2020)
  Table: Population: Babies (Poland 2013-2020)
  Table: Population: Young Children (Poland 2013-2020)
  Table: Population: Children (Poland 2013-2020)
  Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Poland 2013-2020)
  Table: Population: Young People (Poland 2013-2020)
  Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Poland 2013-2020)
  Table: Population: 21yrs + (Poland 2013-2020)
  Table: Population: Young Adults (Poland 2013-2020)
  Table: Population: Middle Aged (Poland 2013-2020)
  Table: Population: Urban (Poland 2013-2020)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q216
Poland Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Clothing & Footwear
  Table: Selected Clothing & Footwear Retailers
Household Goods
  Table: Selected Household Goods/Homeware/Home Improvement Retailers
  Table: Selected Electronics Retailers
Department Stores
  Table: Selected Department Stores
  Table: Selected E-commerce/Online Marketplaces
  Table: Selected Drug Stores/Pharmacies
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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