Philippines Retail Report Q4 2010

Date: August 22, 2010
Pages: 57
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: P852C47A374EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

The Q410 BMI Philippines Retail Report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow from a forecast PHP1.33trn (US$29.85bn) in 2010 to PHP1.64trn (US$36.83bn) by 2014. Strong underlying economic growth, an expanding population (especially in urban areas), rising consumer spending and the continued development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth in the Philippines’ retail sales.

The Philippines’ nominal GDP is a forecast US$174.46bn in 2010. Average annual GDP growth of 4.6% is predicted by BMI through to 2014, reaching US$261.33bn. With the population expected to increase from an estimated 93.6mn in 2010 to 100.9mn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by nearly 52% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$2,586. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$1,419 in 2010 to US$1,938 by 2014.

Although salaries in the Philippines remain low – BMI forecasts the 2010 average annual wage at US$2,000 – household incomes are substantially bolstered by contributions from family members working overseas. Total remittances into the country rose by 4.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) over the first nine months of 2009, bringing the total to US$12.8bn, up from US$12.3bn in 9M08. BMI forecasts 14.5% growth in remittances in 2010, up from the 5.6% growth estimated for 2009, on the back of the US and global recovery.

With the majority of remittances going into consumption rather than investments, the retail industry is one of the beneficiaries. In urban areas in particular there are also increasing numbers of dual-income, middle-class families and young professionals who are boosting retail sales.

The country’s growing youth population represents a key element of future retail spending. According to UN data, 36.7% of the Philippine population was in the 20-44 age range in 2005. This is forecast to increase to nearly 39% by 2015. The proportion of the population classified by the UN as economically active was 60.9% in 2005 and should rise to almost 63% by 2015. The urban population, which accounted for 62.6% of the total in 2005, is predicted to reach nearly 70% by 2015. About 50% of the country’s total retail sales are concentrated in the Manila metropolitan area.

Consumer electronic sales are forecast to be worth US$3.78bn in 2010, according to BMI data, rising to US$4.89bn by 2014 (+29%). Sales of over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical products are forecast to increase from US$763mn in 2010 to US$1.03bn by 2014, a rise of more than 35%. Vehicle sales should increase by 22%, from US$1.32bn in 2010 to US$1.61bn by the end of forecast period.

Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2010 are forecast at US$2.66trn. China and India are predicted to account for almost 91% of regional retail sales in 2010, and by 2014 their share of the regional market is expected to be more than 92%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2010-2014 is forecast by BMI at 72.2%, an annual average 14%. India should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by China. For the Philippines, the forecast market share of 1.1% in 2010 is expected to decrease to 0.8% by 2014.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Philippines Retail Business Environment SWOT
Philippines Political SWOT
Philippines Economic SWOT
Business Environment Outlook
Asia Pacific Retail Business Environment Ratings
    Table: Asia Pacific Retail Business Environment Ratings
Philippines’ Retail Rating
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Market Overview
Current Trends
Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
Retail Growth Outlook
    Table: Key Retail Indicators, 2007-2014
    Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2010f
Macroeconomic Outlook
    Table: Philippines Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Regional Retail Outlook
Asia Pacific Retail Regional Outlook
    Table: Asia Retail Sales, 2007-2014 (US$bn)
    Table: Asia Food Consumption, 2007-2014 (US$$bn)
    Table: Asia Macroeconomic Outlook, 2007-2014
Consumer Electronics
Philippines Consumer Electronics SWOT
Philippines Electronics Industry SWOT
Market Overview
    Table: Computers – Demand, 2007-2014
    Table: AV – Demand, 2007-2014
Mobile Handsets
    Table: Mobile Handsets – Demand, 2007-2014
    Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2007-2014
Industry Developments
Philippines Autos Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
    Table: Philippines Auto Industry – Production & Sales
    Table: Philippines Motorcycle Production And Sales (Units)
    Table: Philippines Auto Industry – Exports And Imports
Industry Developments
Over-the-Counter (OTC) Pharmaceuticals
Philippines Pharmaceuticals Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
    Table: Top
OTC Brands In The Philippines (MAT September 2007, PHPbn)
Industry Developments
Country Snapshot: Philippines Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
    Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
    Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
    Table: Education, 2002-2005
    Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
    Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
    Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2007-2012 (US$)
    Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2004-2006
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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