Malaysia Retail Report Q4 2010

Date: July 22, 2010
Pages: 59
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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The Q410 BMI Malaysia Retail Report forecasts that total retail sales will grow from MYR153.76bn (US$43.65bn) in 2010 to MYR251.63bn (US$71.44bn) by 2014. A low unemployment rate, rising disposable incomes and a strong tourism industry are key factors behind the forecast growth. Malaysia’s nominal GDP is forecast to be US$219.42bn in 2010 and BMI forecasts average annual GDP growth of 4.8% over the forecast period through to 2014. With the population expected to increase to 29.6mn by 2014, GDP per capita is predicted to rise from US$7,978 in 2010 to US$9,720 in 2014. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$4,329 in 2010 to US$5,702 by the end of the forecast period.

Malaysia is classified as an upper-middle income country by the World Bank, with the proportion of middle-income households estimated at more than 50% in 2007. According to the Department of Statistics Malaysia, urban households on average spent 1.8-times more than rural households between 2004 and 2005. Average consumer spending was MYR2,285 per month in urban areas and MYR1,301 per month in rural areas. With the urban population predicted to account for almost 76% of the total by 2015, according to UN data, this is likely to have a positive effect on retail sales.

BMI forecasts vehicle sales of US$6.04bn in 2010, rising to US$9.36bn by the end of the forecast period (+55.0%). Over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are forecast to be US$404mn in 2010 and to increase to US$557mn by the end of the forecast period (+38.0%). Consumer electronic sales are predicted to rise from US$8.58bn in 2010 to US$11.06bn by the end of the forecast period (+21.6%). Although Malaysia is increasingly one of emerging Asia’s more established mass grocery retail (MGR) markets, BMI continues to predict a bright medium-term future for the sector, with industry sales forecast to increase by 50% to reach MYR20.7bn (US$7.02bn) in 2014.

Tourism is an important contributor to the retail sector. In 2007, the year of the 50th anniversary of Malaysia’s independence, the country received 20.9mn visitors, helped by the Visit Malaysia campaign. Tourism receipts amounted to MYR46.07bn (US$13.82bn).

Tourist arrivals increased by 5.5% to 22.05mn in 2008, surpassing the 21.5mn target set by the government under the Ninth Malaysia Plan for 2006-2010. Shopping is the second-highest contributor to the country’s tourism receipts, and shopping revenue is estimated to have increased by 30% to MYR16bn (US$4.6bn) in 2008.

Tourist arrivals from January to August 2009 totalled 15.38mn, up 4.4% from 14.73mn in the same period of 2008. Tourism Minister Ng Yen Yen has said that Malaysia aims to attract 24mn tourists and earn MYR54bn (US$16.93bn) in tourism receipts in 2010.

Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2010 are a forecast US$2.66trn. China and India are predicted to account for almost 91% of regional retail sales in 2010, and by 2014 their share of the regional market is expected to be more than 92%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2010-2014 is forecast by BMI at 72.2%, an annual average 14%. India should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by China. Malaysia’s forecast market share of 1.5% in 2010 is expected to decrease to 1.4% by 2014.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Malaysia Retail Business Environment SWOT
Malaysia Political SWOT
Malaysia Economic SWOT
Business Environment Outlook
Asia Pacific Retail Business Environment Ratings
  Table: Asia Pacific Retail Business Environment Ratings
Malaysia’s Retail Rating
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Market Overview
Key Players
Current Trends
Industry Forecast Scenario
Retail Growth Outlook
  Table: Key Retail Indicators, 2007-2014
  Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2010f
Macroeconomic Outlook
  Table: Malaysia – Economic Activity
Regional Retail Outlook
Asia Pacific Retail Regional Outlook
  Table: Asia Retail Sales, 2007-2014 (US$bn)
  Table: Asia Food Consumption, 2007-2014 (US$$bn)
  Table: Asia Macroeconomic Outlook, 2007-2014
Mass Grocery Retail
Malaysia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Market Overview
  Table: Structure Of Malaysia’s MGR Market – Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2003-2008
  Table: Structure Of Malaysia’s MGR Market – Value Sales By Format, 2003-2008 (US$bn)
  Table: Structure Of Malaysia’s MGR Market – Value Sales By Format, 2003-2008 (MYRbn)
  Table: Average Sales Per Outlet By Format, 2008
Industry Forecast Scenario
  Table: Malaysia MGR Sales, 2005-2014
  Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format, 2008 & 2018 (%)
Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
Malaysia Consumer Electronics SWOT
Malaysia Electronics Industry SWOT
Market Overview
  Table: Computers: Sales
  Table: AV: Sales
Mobile Handsets
  Table: Mobile Communications
Industry Forecast Scenario
  Table: Consumer Electronics Overview
Industry Developments
Malaysia Autos Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
  Table: Malaysia Autos Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts
  Table: Malaysia Autos Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts
Industry Developments
Country Snapshot: Malaysia Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
  Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
  Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
  Table: Education, 2000-2003
  Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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