Malaysia Retail Report Q1 2016

Date: November 25, 2015
Pages: 74
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The retail market will begin to bounce back in 2016 after a rough year during 2015, characterised by the weak ringgit, removal of subsidies and the lowest consumer confidence levels seen in 10 years. The short-term outlook is bearish and we expect that it will take a number of years to alter spending habits away from saving and paying down high levels of consumer debt, back towards retail spending.

As a highly oil & gas dependent country, Malaysia has been hit by the changing oil price landscape in 2015. Fossil fuels directly contribute to 30% of all government revenues in Malaysia and a 40% drop in oil price in 12 months requires the country to rebalance its budget. First, fuel subsidies were removed allowing petrol price to rise. Consumers and businesses are facing higher transportation costs, and due to inelastic nature of demand for petrol, Malaysians will see their disposable incomes decline in 2015-2016. Second, the government moved further in rebalancing the budget and introduced a Goods and Services Tax (GST) in April 2015. Most of the retail products qualify for the new 6% tax which is in turn squeezing profit margins for retailers and decreasing the purchasing power of Malaysian wages. As a result, consumer sentiment fell to a six-year low in July 2015, according to the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research. The holy month of Ramadan, which typically generates large volumes of sales as stores launch promotions in order to attract customers, was disappointing for retailers, some of whom faced 20% declines in sales compared with last year. Consequently, we forecast that total household spending will have fallen by 5.2% in US dollar terms by the end of 2015.
BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Headline Retail Forecast
  Table: Total Household Spending (Malaysia 2012-2019)
  Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Malaysia 2012-2019)
  Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Malaysia 2012-2019)
  Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Malaysia 2012-2019)
Retail Sector Forecast
Food, Drink & Tobacco
  Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Malaysia 2012-2019)
Clothing & Footwear
  Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Malaysia 2012-2019)
Household Goods
  Table: Household Goods Spending (Malaysia 2012-2019)
Personal Care
  Table: Personal Care Spending (Malaysia 2012-2019)
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
  Table: Household Income Data (Malaysia 2012-2019)
Demographic Forecast
  Table: Total Population (Malaysia 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Babies (Malaysia 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Young Children (Malaysia 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Children (Malaysia 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Malaysia 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Young People (Malaysia 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Malaysia 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: 21yrs + (Malaysia 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Young Adults (Malaysia 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Middle Aged (Malaysia 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Urban (Malaysia 2012-2019)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
  Table: Economic Activity (Malaysia 2010-2019)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Asia Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Asia Pacific Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q116
Malaysia Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Department Store Groups
Mass Grocery Retail
Consumer Electronics
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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