Colombia Retail Report Q4 2015

Date: September 30, 2015
Pages: 68
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: Download
ID: C589438E6B8EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: With the fourth largest economy in Latin America, measured by GDP, Colombia's retail sector presents many opportunities for international and domestic retailers, as well as investors. Years of economically sound policy have lowered barriers to entry for international firms, and sustained economic growth has brought lower unemployment rates and higher levels of affluence for a significant portion of the population. However, lingering poverty levels, a deficient physical and transportation infrastructure, and the slow rate of non-cash payment integration into the economy continue to remain a hindrance to achieving full economic growth potential. Nevertheless, significant opportunities remain. In particular, the continuing fall of the informal sector's market share and the continuing rise of e-commerce and online retail should provide meaningful incentive for further investment and expansion.

The Colombian economy is set for a sharp slowdown in the coming quarters, as the country struggles in the face of weaker trade dynamics and slowing household spending. Indeed, after real GDP growth of 4.6% in 2014, we forecast only a 3.1% expansion in 2015. This is well below both the government's projections (3.6%) and Bloomberg consensus (3.3%), and reflects our below-consensus oil price and production forecasts for Colombia. Moreover, we expect real GDP growth will remain weak over the coming five years, averaging 3.4% compared to 4.8% in the past half decade, as the impact of weaker oil prices and falling crude production continue to temper the country's economic outlook. This will weigh on the retail sector's prospects, particularly in the luxury non-essentials segments, as disposable income levels remain subdued.
BMI Industry View
Retail SWOT
Industry Forecast
Headline Retail Forecast
  Table: Total Household Spending (Colombia 2012-2019)
  Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Colombia 2012-2019)
  Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Colombia 2012-2019)
  Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Colombia 2012-2019)
Retail Sector Forecast
Food & Drink
  Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Colombia 2012-2019)
Clothing & Footwear
  Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Colombia 2012-2019)
Household Goods
  Table: Household Goods Spending (Colombia 2012-2019)
Personal Care & Effects
  Table: Personal Care Spending (Colombia 2012-2019)
Household Income and Numbers Forecast
  Table: Household Income Data (Colombia 2012-2019)
  Table: Labour Market Data (Colombia 2012-2019)
Demographic Forecast
  Table: Total Population (Colombia 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Babies (Colombia 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Young Children (Colombia 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Children (Colombia 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Colombia 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Young People (Colombia 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Colombia 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: 21yrs + (Colombia 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Young Adults (Colombia 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Middle Aged (Colombia 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Urban (Colombia 2012-2019)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
  Table: Colombia - Key Economic Indicators
  Table: Colombia - Private Consumption Forecasts
  Table: Colombia - Government Consumption Forecasts
  Table: Colombia - Fixed Investment Forecasts
  Table: Colombia - Net Exports Forecasts
Industry Risk Reward Index
Latin America Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Latin America Retail Risk/Reward Index
Colombia Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Convenience Stores
Quick-Service Restaurants (QSRs)
Department Stores
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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Colombia Retail Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,295.00 Dec, 2015 · 68 pages
Colombia Retail Report Q2 2016 US$ 1,295.00 Mar, 2016 · 60 pages
Colombia Retail Report Q3 2016 US$ 1,295.00 Jun, 2016 · 62 pages

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