China Retail Report Q1 2016

Date: January 13, 2016
Pages: 73
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: Download
ID: CB45A70483CEN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: During a difficult 2015 for China, robust household income growth has been one of the few silver linings to the country's slowdown. This translates well into continued retail sales for the coming 2016 year, supported by rising incomes and strong employment. However, this will be a slight drop off from 2015 as the slowdown begins to take its toll. We expect private consumption growth to outperform the remainder of the economy and this will be helped by the high savings rate of Chinese households, as their balance sheets are in solid shape for continued spend over the coming years.

Key BMI Forecasts
  • We expect total household spending to be USD5,296bn in 2016, up by 5.3% y-o-y.
  • Food & non-alcoholic drinks spending will reach USD1,310bn in 2016, while transport spending will amount to USD541.3bn.
  • Household numbers will reach 460mn in 2016, representing 0.9% growth y-o-y.
  • China sits in second position out of 20 countries in BMI's Retail Risk/Reward Index for the Asia Pacific region. The country scores highly for its strong forecast household spending growth and for its huge population. These factors are, however, offset by under-developed physical and labour infrastructure and its long-term inflation outlook.
BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Headline Retail Forecast
  Table: Total Household Spending (China 2012-2019)
  Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (China 2012-2019)
  Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (China 2012-2019)
  Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (China 2012-2019)
Retail Sector Forecast
Food & Drink
  Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (China 2012-2019)
Clothing & Footwear
  Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (China 2012-2019)
Household Goods
  Table: Household Goods Spending (China 2012-2019)
Personal Care & Effects
  Table: Personal Care Spending (China 2012-2019)
Household Numbers and Income Forecast
  Table: Household Income Data (China 2012-2019)
  Table: Labour Market Data (China 2012-2019)
Demographic Forecast
  Table: Total Population (China 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Babies (China 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Young Children (China 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Children (China 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Young People (China 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (China 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Older Teenagers (China 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: 21yrs + (China 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Young Adults (China 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Middle Aged (China 2012-2019)
  Table: Population: Urban (China 2012-2019)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
  Table: Economic Activity (China 2010-2019)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Asia Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Asia Pacific Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q116
China Risk Reward Index
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Department Store Groups
Mass Grocery Retail
Household Goods
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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