BMI India Retail Report Q4 2012

Date: August 8, 2012
Pages: 87
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: BE031F23579EN

Download PDF Leaflet

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

The Indian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on India’s economic outlook of continued fiscal indiscipline.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Indian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the risk of another spike in global oil prices on the Indian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.

The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Indian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

India comes second (out of seven) in BMI’s Asia Retail risk/reward ratings, although it underperforms for risk.

Among all retail categories, Mass Grocery Retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 112.3% between 2012 and 2016, from US$31.45bn to US$66.77bn as India’s emerging middle class continues to drive demand for new goods and services, and rural retailing presents expansion opportunities.

In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the eventual removal of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) restrictions in multi-brand retail.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
  • BMI is keeping to its forecast for annual real GDP growth to improve to 7.3% this fiscal year, from an estimated 6.8% in FY2011/12. Our core view is that Indian economic growth has bottomed out, and we therefore expect to see the country posting higher quarterly real GDP growth rates in the fiscal year ahead (FY2012/13, April-March). The crucial part of our expectation for an acceleration of growth hinges on the assumption that monetary policy easing will commence soon. We maintain that India's recovery is unlikely to be V-shaped, and we do not expect a strong enough bounce in overall investment activity.
  • BMI expects private expenditure (which makes up the bulk of GDP in the country's national accounts at approximately 60%) to pick up as Indian households find relief from the anticipated lower cost of credit. Furthermore, a drawn-out period of disinflation (our core view) should provide respite to household budgets' purchasing power. Our projection sees average headline inflation falling to 6.6% in FY2012/13 (from an estimated 8.7% in FY2011/12). We expect private consumption growth to rise to 6.2% this fiscal year, contributing 3.9 percentage points (pp) to headline growth.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
India Retail Business Environment SWOT
India Political SWOT
India Economic SWOT
Market Overview
Current Trends
Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Retail Growth Outlook
  Table: India Retail Sales Indicators, 2008-2016
  Table: Retail Sector Breakdown By Key Segment, 2012f
Macroeconomic Outlook
  Table: India - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Regional Retail Outlook
Asia Pacific Retail Outlook
  Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
  Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (%)
  Table: Asia Pacific Food Consumption, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
  Table: Asia Pacific Macroeconomic Outlook, 2009-2016
Risk/Reward Ratings
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings
  Table: Asia Pacific Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
India’s Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Mass Grocery Retail
India Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Leading MGR Players
  Table: Structure of India's Mass Grocery Retail Market by Estimated Number of Outlets
  Table: Structure of India's Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales by Format (US$mn)
  Table: Structure of India's Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales by Format (INRmn)
  Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format (%) – Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Forecast Scenario
  Table: India MGR Sales by Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
  Table: Average Outlet Sales by Format – 2011
Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
India Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
India Electronics Industry SWOT
Market Overview
  Table: Computer Sales, 2009-2016
Low-Cost PCs
  Table: Total Desktop Sales
  Table: AV Sales, 2009-2016
Mobile Handsets
  Table: Mobile Communications: Demand, 2009-2016
Industry Forecast Scenario
  Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016
Industry Developments
India Autos Industry SWOT
Industry Forecast
Production And Sales
  Table: India Autos Sector - Sales And Production
Passenger Vehicles – Forecast and Analysis
Production And Sales
  Table: India Autos Sector - Passenger Cars
Industry Developments
India Demographic Outlook
  Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
  Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
  Table: India's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
  Table: India's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Skip to top

BMI India Retail Report Q1 2012 US$ 1,295.00 Dec, 2011 · 74 pages
BMI India Retail Report Q2 2011 US$ 1,295.00 Feb, 2011 · 67 pages
India Retail Report Q3 2016 US$ 1,295.00 Jun, 2016 · 66 pages
Book Retail Market in India 2010 US$ 400.00 Oct, 2010 · 32 pages

Ask Your Question

BMI India Retail Report Q4 2012
Company name*:
Contact person*:
Request invoice
Your enquiry:
Please click on a Check Box below to confirm you are not a robot: