BMI India Retail Report Q1 2012

Date: December 22, 2011
Pages: 74
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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The Q112 BMI India Retail Report forecasts total retail sales will grow from INR20.26trn (US$422.09bn) in 2011 to INR31.78trn (US$825.46bn) by 2015. Strong underlying economic growth, population expansion, the increasing wealth of individuals and the rapid construction of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth.

As well as an expanding middle and upper class consumer base, there will also be opportunities in India’s second- and third-tier cities. The greater availability of personal credit and a growing vehicle population providing improved mobility also contribute to a trend of 12.1% average annual retail sales growth throughout the period.

Tourism is also a major contributor to the Indian retail sector. Tourist arrivals rose by 8% in 2010 to 5.40mn, from 4.99mn in 2009. Foreign exchange earnings from tourism during 2010 were US$13.24bn, up 9.55% from US$12.08bn the year before.

India’s nominal GDP is forecast at US$2.0trn in 2011. Average annual GDP growth of 7.6% is predicted by BMI through to 2015. With the population expected to increase from 1.24bn in 2011 to 1.31bn by 2015, GDP per capita is forecast to rise 92.6% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$3,063.

The growth in the overall retail market will be driven largely by the explosion in the organised retail sector. Domestic retailers such as Reliance Retail and Pantaloon Retail continue to invest heavily in increasing their store networks and improving in-store offerings, and the impact they have on growth will be boosted by the arrival of expansion-oriented multinationals.

Reliance Retail was looking to invest up to INR1.5bn (US$33mn) in 150 new stores by March 2011, adding to its existing 1,050-store network. CEO Bijou Kurien said: ‘Now that the recession is over, several new and stalled projects will get started. We would focus on both value retail as well as specialty, non-food retail stores.’ Reliance recently opened its 103rd Vision Express optical outlet in India in partnership with GrandVision.

Mass grocery retail (MGR) sales in India are expected to undergo enormous growth over the forecast period. BMI predicts that sales through MGR outlets will increase by 219% to reach US$28.14bn by 2015. This is a consequence of India’s dramatic, rapid shift from small independent retailers to large, modern outlets, although it must also be noted that this growth is forecast to come from a very low starting point.

BMI forecasts consumer electronic sales at US$29.44bn in 2011, with over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales at US$3.03bn. The former sub-sector is expected to show growth of 78.5% between 2011 and 2015, reaching US$52.55bn, with projected double-digit growth of key products such as notebooks, mobile handsets and TVs. OTC pharmaceuticals, meanwhile, should increase by 87.9% throughout the forecast period, to reach US$5.69bn.

Automotive sales are forecast to increase from 3.60mn units in 2011 to 5.21mn units by 2015, an increase of 44.8%, with the premium segment in particular benefiting from higher levels of personal wealth. Domestic vehicle sales surged by a phenomenal 45.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) in October 2010, driven by a 22.0% increase in commercial credit (the fastest pace since 2008).

Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2011 are a forecast US$3.13trn. China and India are predicted to account for nearly 91% of regional retail sales in 2011, and by 2015 their share of the regional market is expected to be more than 92%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2011-2015 is forecast by BMI at 71.6%, an annual average 14.4%. India should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by China. India’s forecast market share of 13.2% in 2011 is expected to increase to 15.0% by 2015.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
India Retail Business Environment SWOT
India Political SWOT
India Economic SWOT
Market Overview
Current Trends
Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
  Table: Retail Sector Breakdown By Key Segment, 2011f
  Table: India Retail Sales Indicators
Consumer Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook
  Table: India – GDP Contribution To Growth
Regional Retail Outlook
Asia Pacific Retail Outlook
  Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales, 2008-2015 (US$bn)
  Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales By % Share, 2008-2015
  Table: Asia Food Consumption, 2008-2015 (US$$bn)
Business Environment Outlook
Asia Pacific Retail Business Environment Ratings
Mass Grocery Retail
India Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Leading MGR Players
  Table: Structure of India's Mass Grocery Retail Market by Estimated Number of Outlets
  Table: Structure Of India's Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales By Format (US$mn)
  Table: Structure Of India's Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales By Format (INRmn)
  Table: Average Outlet Sales By Format – 2010
Industry Forecast Scenario
  Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts
  Table: Mass Grocery Retail By Format (%)
Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
India Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
Market Overview
  Table: Computer Sales
  Table: Total Desktop Sales
  Table: AV Sales
Mobile Communications
  Table: Mobile Communications Sales
Industry Forecast Scenario
  Table: Consumer Electronics Overview
Industry Developments
India Auto Industry SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Production and Sales
  Table: India Autos Sector: Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015
  Table: India Autos Sector: Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015
Industry Developments
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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