Spain Food and Drink Report Q3 2012

Date: June 26, 2012
Pages: 123
US$ 1,175.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

Spain's domestic economy continues to be crippled by the government's fiscal austerity drive, with unemployment continuing to head higher, and house prices still tumbling. At the same time, Spain's ability to export its way out of recession has disappeared with the rest of the eurozone caught up in a pronounced slowdown. We continue to target a 2.1% contraction in real GDP this year, and we now expect Spain's economic contraction to continue into 2013, where we forecast a further contraction of - 0.2%.

Headline Industry Data
  • 2012 per capita food consumption = +0.4%; forecast to 2016 = +7.8%
  • 2012 alcoholic drink sales = +0.6%; forecast to 2016 = +7.2%
  • 2012 soft drink sales = +0.5% ; forecast to 2016 = +10.7%
  • 2012 mass grocery retail sales = +0.7%; forecast to 2016 = +10.7%

Key Company Trends & Developments

Ebro Focuses on Geographic Expansion and M&A – In spring 2012, the CEO of one of Spain’s largest food producers Ebro, Antonio Hernandez Callejas, said that the company will continue to invest in new concepts and products, making acquisitions and expanding its international presence. While North America accounts for the lion's share of Ebro's business, Callejas said the company sees an opportunity for growth in the region, through further expansion in private label and the launch of its frozen and ready meals. In Europe, Callejas said Ebro's focus will be different, given the continent's commitment to fresh foods. This, he said, may include acquisitions, which he claimed the company is in a strong position to undertake.

Mahou San Miguel Moves into India – In spring 2012, Spanish brewer Mahou San Miguel acquired 50% of Arian Breweries & Distilleries, an Indian firm owned by a local family group which has a brewery in North East India. This marks the first time a Spanish brewer has made an acquisition in an emerging market and is in line with the group’s internationalisation strategy. The company will initially supply northern India, but hopes to expand nationally in the future in a country which has a population of nearly 1.2 billion, current low beer consumption per capita levels and expected high growth rates.

Key Risk to Outlook

The biggest risk to our forecasts stems from the government's fiscal strategy. While the private sector remains in no state to drive the economy forward, should the government push too hard on the fiscal brakes, it could lead to an even greater downturn in real GDP. This would render the government's fiscal consolidation strategy as self-defeating and would prompt us to reassess our growth, fiscal and debt forecasts.

Similarly, a further decline in eurozone economic activity would have a severe impact on the Spanish economy. While net exports will not be sufficiently strong enough to pick Spain up out of recession in 2013, for now it remains a positive contributor to headline growth. As such, weaker export growth could see Spain's economic contraction over the next two years prove even more severe than currently envisaged.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Spain Food Industry SWOT
Spain Drink Industry SWOT
Spain Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Business Environment
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views
  Table: BMI’s Core Views
Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
  Table: Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Subcategories, Q312 (scores out of 10)
  Table: Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312
Spain’s Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
Macroeconomic Outlook
  Table: Spain – Economic Activity
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Food Consumption
  Table: Spain Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts
Canned Food/Prepared Food
  Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
  Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Hot Drinks
  Table: Coffee Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Soft Drinks
  Table: Soft Drink Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Alcoholic Drinks
  Table: Alcoholic Drink Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Mass Grocery Retail
  Table: Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales by Format (US$bn) – Historical Data & Forecasts
  Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%)
  Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance – Historical Data & Forecasts
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Ebro to Grow Via Geographic Expansion and M&A
Weak Spanish Market Pushes International Growth
Stevia’s EU Approval Will Spur Product Development
Agro-Food Fund Established in Spain
Nueva Rumasa Restructuring Continues
Ebro Sees Revenue Increase But Earnings Seeing Impact of Rising Costs
SOS Posts First Profit In Three Years
Smithfield No Longer Looking To Raise Stake In Campofrio
Mixed Signs For Investment In Sector
Private Labels Gaining Market Share
Market Overview
Prepared Food
  Table: Frozen Vegetables
  Table: Snack Foods
  Table: Pasta
Meat And Fish
  Table: Meat
  Table: Fish
Eggs And Dairy
  Table: Oils And Fats
  Table: Dairy
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Henkell Positions for Sparkling Growth with Cava Acquisition
Mahou San Miguel Moves into India
Heineken to Cut Further in Europe/Spain Stagnant
Spirits Hit by New Taxes
Wine Exports Exposed To Currency Fluctuations
Mahou-San Miguel Extends Beverage Portfolio
Market Overview
Soft Drinks
Alcoholic Drinks
Mass Grocery Retail
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Metro Reorganises Iberian Cash & Carry Operations
Eroski Focuses on Franchising
Lithuanian Maxima Moves into Spain
Eroski Posts Loss for Third Consecutive Year
Dia’s First Results As Independent Operator Hint At Opportunities Ahead
Retailers Continue To Invest
Market Overview
  Table: Structure Of Spain’s Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets
  Table: Structure Of Spain’s Mass Grocery Retail Market By Value (US$mn)
  Table: Structure Of Spain’s Mass Grocery Retail Market By Value (EURmn)
  Table: Annual Average Sales Per Outlet By Format – 2009
  Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data And Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Key Players in Spain's Food Sector
  Table: Key Players in Spain's Drink Sector
  Table: Key Players in Spain's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
  Table: Key Players in Spain's Drink Sector
Company Monitor
Grupo Ebro Puleva
Grupo Leche Pascual Alimentacion
Campofrio Alimentacion SA
Deoleo (SOS Corporacion Alimentaria)
Heineken Espana SA
Mass Grocery Retail
Centros Comerciales Carrefour
Eroski Group (Including Caprabo)
BMI Methodology
Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Ratings Methodology
Ratings System
  Table: Limits Of Potential Returns
  Table: Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns
  Table: Weighting
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting And Sources
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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