Southern Africa Food and Drink Report Q2 2012

Date: February 28, 2012
Pages: 75
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: SF05107E54FEN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: With double-digit or high single-digit average annual growth forecast for food, beverage and mass grocery retail sales throughout the region over our forecast period, Southern Africa affords enormous opportunities to industry investors. There is a clear divide between the opportunity present in the smaller and more established regional food markets of Botswana and Namibia and the less mature and larger regional markets of Zambia and Angola and yet growth opportunities throughout the region remain enormously attractive relative to the wider industry.

Key Forecasts:
  • Angola – Per capita food consumption to grow by an average of 13.9% annually to reach US$1,266 in 2016
  • Botswana – Per capita food consumption forecast to increase by an annual average of 8.2% to 2016
  • Mozambique – Per capita food consumption is forecast to increase by a healthy annual average of 11.4% out to 2016
  • Namibia – From an already fairly high base in this relatively developed food sector, we expect per capita food consumption to increase by around 6.8% annually to 2016
  • Zambia – We forecast average annual growth of 6.1% out to 2016 for domestic per capita food consumption
Key Trends

Organised Retailing: All Southern Africa markets lag regional leader South Africa in terms of the presence of organised grocery retailing. Aside from South Africa, Botswana and Namibia are more developed, with a higher penetration of formal retailing, while Zimbabwe, Angola and Mozambique are all far less mature but with stronger room for growth. Across the region, formalisation will be a key driver of mass grocery retail sales growth, as more and more shoppers trade up to organised retail channels. This will be true, even for the region’s more mature markets; however here, we would also expect the steady introduction of new store offerings, such as non-food products, to also help support growth. Another notable feature of retailing in the region is the presence of South African retailers, which are seeking opportunities outside of their more mature domestic market. Ongoing investment by South African chains will be growth supportive over our forecast period.

Beverage Sector Growth: We expect to see strong beverage sales growth throughout the region over the forecast period and well beyond. There is enormous potential in beer and soft drinks, specifically carbonates at this stage of the region’s development. Once again, South Africa leads the region in terms of per capita beer consumption, followed by the more mature markets of Botswana and Namibia, with Zambia bringing up the rear. Throughout the region the beer market is already keenly contested and this level of competition will lead to significant new investment over our forecast period, thus driving strong sector growth.

Demographic Appeal: Demographics are a key component of the region’s appeal, given the very low base from which most growth is occurring and the severe income inequalities that still persist. Within the region, Angola and Zambia stand out as having particularly impressive population demographics, with a reasonably large consumer base, strong population growth forecasts and a large youthful population.
BMI View
Business Environment
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views
  Table: Agricultural Commodity Prices
  Table: Core Views Q212
Region's Reward And Risk Profile Poles Apart
Angola Macroeconomic Outlook
  Table: Angola - Economic Activity
Botswana Macroeconomic Outlook
  Table: Coal Deposits
  Table: Botswana - GDP By Expenditure, Us$ Terms Breakdown
Mozambique Macroeconomic Outlook
  Table: Mozambique - Economic Activity
Namibia Macroeconomic Outlook
  Table: Namibia - Economic Activity
Zambia Macroeconomic Outlook
  Table: Zambia - Economic Activity
Industry Forecast Scenario
Angola – Food, Drink, Mass Grocery Retail
Food Consumption
  Table: Angola Food Consumption, 2010-2016
  Table: Soft Drinks,2010-2016
  Table: Alcoholic Drinks,2010-2016
Mass Grocery Retail
  Table: Mass Grocery Retail,2010-2016
Botswana – Food, Drink, Mass Grocery Retail
Food Consumption
  Table: Botswana Food Consumption,2010-2016
  Table: Botswana Soft Drink ,2010-2016
  Table: Botswana Alcoholic Drinks, 2010-2016
Mass Grocery Retail
  Table: Botswana Mass Grocery Retail,2010-2016
Mozambique - Food, Drink, Mass Grocery Retail
Food Consumption
  Table: Mozambique Food Consumption,2010-2016
  Table: Mozambique Sugar Confectionary ,2010-2016
  Table: Meat Sales, 2010-2016
  Table: Preserved Fish (dried, salted, smoked) Market , 2010-2016
  Table: Snack Foods Market, 2010-2016
  Table: Sweet Biscuits Market, 2010-2016
  Table: Bread Products Market,2010-2016
  Table: Pasta Market,2010-2016
  Table: Soft Drinks,2010-2016
  Table: Alcoholic Drinks, 2010-2016
Mass Grocery Retail
  Table: Mass Grocery Retail,2010-2016
Namibia – Food, Drink, Mass Grocery Retail
Food Consumption
  Table: Namibia Total Food Consumption,2010-2016
  Table: Fish Market,2010-2016
Mass Grocery Retail
  Table: Mass Grocery Retail,2010-2016
Zambia – Food, Drink, Mass Grocery Retail
Food Consumption
  Table: Zambia Food Consumption,2010-2016
Mass Grocery Retail
  Table: Mass Grocery Retail,2010-2016
Market Overview
Southern Africa A Great Opportunity For Multinationals
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
  Table: Rewards
  Table: Risks
  Table: Weighting
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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