Republic of Ireland Food and Drink Report Q3 2011

Date: July 22, 2011
Pages: 81
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

Download PDF Leaflet

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

Over the last 18 months the majority of food and drink stocks listed on the Irish stock market have outperformed the wider index. This outperformance can also be partly attributed to the defensive nature of the food and drink sector, with signs that in some categories the rapid drop in demand that accompanied Ireland's economic woes may have bottomed out. However, we think a more significant factor is the international focus of many of these businesses, which has helped them to benefit from the global recovery

We believe the domestic food and drink market will remain incredibly challenging – particularly for firms focused on discretionary items. However, signs of a bottoming out within the consumer sector are also likely to put a floor under the share price of Ireland's food and drink producers, particularly given the defensive nature of the overall industry, which can be expected to be among the first parts of the consumer sector to benefit from any increase in consumer spending.

Headline Industry Data

2011 per capita food consumption +0.6%; forecast to 2015 +6%
2011 alcoholic drink sales -4.9%; forecast to 2015 +7.2%
2011 soft drink sales -0.5% ; forecast to 2015 +5.4%
2011 mass grocery retail sales +2.0%; forecast to 2015 +8.9%

Key Industry Trends & Developments

BMI Sees Superquinn Sale As Likely With Musgrave Frontrunner To Secure Business – A spokesperson for Irish retailer Superquinn has denied reports that it is up for sale, saying instead that it would focus on implementing its recently approved business plan. However, the latest retail sales figures from Kantar Wordpanel point to continued difficulties for the firm, with falling sales and declining market share. This suggests the company would be in a weak position to rebuff any potential takeover attempt, with rival retailer Musgrave reported to be interested in making a bid.

Aryzta Moves Back Towards Growth – Switzerland/Ireland-based bakery group Aryzta has posted a 31.6% increase in revenues for the first nine months of its fiscal year on the back of acquisitions. The firm's revenues to April 30 came in at EUR2.92bn, aided by the US acquisitions of Great Kitchens and Fresh Start Bakeries. Perhaps more significantly, the company reported that it was encouraged by an upward trend in underlying sales – a sign that its core business, which had been damaged by the global downturn, has turned a corner.

Key Risks to Outlook

Rebalancing of the economy towards exports – Our outlook for Ireland's long-term growth requires a rebalancing of the economy towards exports. We are fairly optimistic that Ireland will continue to see its economy bolstered by the export sector, which, in our view, stands to benefit from an economic recovery in three of its largest export markets – the US, Germany and the UK. However, if demand in any of these core markets fails to deliver the momentum we are currently expecting, then our Irish economic outlook may need to be revised downwards.

Consumer spending fails to recover in line with economy – A second risk is that private consumption growth lags the wider economic recovery to an even greater extent than we are currently predicting, putting further downwards pressure on our forecasts. While there are signs of improvement in the consumer sector, the domestic economic situation is expected to remain extremely fraught, with high unemployment, an ongoing property-bubble unwind and unavoidable fiscal austerity likely ensuring conditions feel recessionary to most Irish citizens, even once headline GDP growth returns.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Ireland Food Industry SWOT
Ireland Drink Industry SWOT
Ireland Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Business Environment
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views
  Table: BMI Food & Drink Core Views
Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
  Table: Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q3 2011
Ireland Food And Drink Risk/Reward Rating
Macroeconomic Outlook
  Table: Ireland - Economic Activity
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Total Food Consumption
  Table: Ireland Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data And Forecasts
Soft Drinks And Bottled Water
  Table: Soft Drink Volume And Value Sales – Historical Data And Forecasts
Alcoholic Drinks
  Table: Alcoholic Drink Volume And Value Sales – Historical Data And Forecasts
Mass Grocery Retail
  Table: Ireland MGR Sector – Sales Value by Format – Historical Data And Forecasts
  Table: Organised Retail Market Share – Historical Data And Forecasts
  Table: Food And Drink Trade Balance – Historical Data And Forecasts
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Aryzta Moves Back Towards Growth
Irish Food And Drink Exports On The Up Again
Greencore Thwarted In Northern Foods Merger
Glanbia Pursues Nutrition Growth
Market Overview
Overview Of Food Sector
Prepared Food
Key Industry Trends And Developments
C&C Full Year Results Offer Up Some Signs Of Encouragement
Irish Performance Continues To Dent Britvic’s Results
Soft Drinks Producers Struggle In Ireland
Market Overview
Soft Drinks
Soft Drinks Sales Breakdown In Ireland, 2009 BMI Estimates
Alcoholic Drinks
Alcoholic Drinks Sales Breakdown In Ireland, 2009 BMI Estimates
Mass Grocery Retail
Key Industry Trends And Developments
BMI Sees Superquinn Sale As Likely, With Musgrave Frontrunner
Ireland’s Retail Sector Dominated by Price
Ireland’s Unsaturated Retail Market Could Attract New Entrants
Aldi’s Slow Pace Of Irish Expansion May Hint At Problems For Sector
Irish Government Unveils Plans For Grocery Code Of Practice
Market Overview
  Table: Structure Of Ireland's Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets
  Table: Sales Formats By Value In Ireland's Mass Grocery Retail Market (EURbn)
  Table: Annual Average Sales Per Outlet By Format – 2009
Competitive Landscape
Consumer Shares Analysis
Key Players
  Table: Key Players in Ireland's Drink Sector
  Table: Key Players in Ireland’s Drink Sector
  Table: Key Players in Irelands's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Company Analysis
Kerry Group
Mass Grocery Retail
Tesco Ireland
BMI Methodology
Food And Drink Business Environment Ratings
  Table: Rewards
  Table: Risks
  Table: Weighting
BMI Food And Drink Industry Glossary
Food And Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
BMI Food And Drink Forecasting And Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing 81
Skip to top

Ask Your Question

Republic of Ireland Food and Drink Report Q3 2011
Company name*:
Contact person*:
Request invoice
Your enquiry:
Please click on a Check Box below to confirm you are not a robot: