Netherlands Food Report Q4 2010

Date: September 22, 2010
Pages: 61
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

The Dutch economy has returned to growth in 2010 and data from the Central Bureau for Statistics suggest that the economic recovery has gained traction in the latest quarter. This growth has had a positive impact on consumer confidence, which has advanced significantly since the start of the year. However, with confidence unlikely to reach pre-crisis levels for many months, the Dutch food and drink sector is likely finding the operating environment tough in 2010 and a focus on price is going to continue playing an important role. Looking further ahead, the Dutch consumer sector appears to be better positioned than many of its regional neighbours to register growth beyond 2010. Relatively strong growth forecasts and a favourable business environment explain why the Netherlands is at the top of our Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings for the Western Europe region.

Headline Industry Data
  • 2010 per capita food consumption = 1.9%; forecast to 2014 = 16.8%
  • 2010 alcoholic drink sales = 2.8%; forecast to 2014 = 25.1%
  • 2010 soft drink sales = 1.1% ; forecast to 2014 = 24.8%
  • 2010 mass grocery retail sales = 3.0%; forecast to 2014 = 33.2%
Key Industry Trends & Developments Netherlands positioned as R&D hub – In May 2010, France-based Groupe Danone announced plans to open a new innovation centre in the Netherlands to strengthen its expertise in the areas of baby nutrition and medical nutrition. The facility will consolidate the firm’s existing Dutch-based research and development (R&D) activities and is expected to open in 2012. As well as highlighting Danone’s commitment to the area of functional nutrition, the move demonstrates the Netherland’s strength as an R&D hub for some of Europe’s largest food and drink (F&D) companies.

Consolidation in retail – In July 2010, Netherlands-based retailer Sligro announced the acquisition of supermarket operator Sanvier for around EUR50mn. The acquisition is part of a consolidation process in the Dutch retail sphere, which has resulted in significant merger and acquisition activity over the past 12 months. The current increase in consolidation activity was kick-started in late 2009, when family-owned Dutch supermarket group Jumbo launched a successful bid for its larger domestic rival Super De Boer. The move meant that Jumbo leapfrogged Sligro and Schuitema to become the country’s second largest retailer behind market leader Ahold (which controls nearly 40% of the market).

Key Risk to Outlook

Export Recovery – There are upside risks to our short-term forecasts as the timing of the anticipated slowdown in export growth is difficult to gauge. Our core view is for deterioration in the external environment over H210 as global growth slows, macroeconomic headwinds mount in China and fiscal consolidation takes effect across the eurozone. Nonetheless, the rebound in export volumes has been robust in 2010 so far and further strength in the coming months would present upside risks to our headline GDP growth forecasts and hence our consumption outlook.

Eurozone debt crisis – On the other hand, the ongoing eurozone crisis poses a threat to investor confidence towards the entire region. The risk of a major sovereign credit event in Europe would further damage confidence, putting significant pressure on export demand and therefore on the Netherland’s economic growth and consumption.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Netherlands Food Industry SWOT
Netherlands Drink Industry SWOT
Netherlands Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Business Environment
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views
    Table: BMI Food & Drink Core Views
Western Europe Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q4 2010
Netherlands’ Food & Drink Business Environment Rating
Economic Outlook
    Table: Netherlands - Economic Activity
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
    Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
    Table: Confectionery Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Soft Drinks and Bottled Water
    Table: Soft Drink Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Alcoholic Drinks
    Table: Alcoholic Drink Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Mass Grocery Retail
    Table: Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales by Format (US$bn) - Historical Data & Forecasts
    Table: Food Sales by Format – Historical Data and Forecasts
    Table: Alcohol and Tobacco Sales by Format – Historical Data and Forecasts
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Dairy Giant Poised For Growth
Netherlands Positioned As R&D Hub
Market Overview
Key Industry Trends & Developments
Refresco Driving Consolidation Of Private Label Soft Drinks
Heineken Expanding In Emerging Markets
Market Overview
Soft Drinks and Bottled Water
Alcoholic Drinks
    Table: Alcoholic Drinks Data
Mass Grocery Retail
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Ahold Restructuring For Expansion
Consolidation Of Sector
Market Overview
    Table: Structure of Mass Grocery Retail Market by Estimated Number of Outlets
    Table: Structure of Mass Grocery Retail Market by Value (US$mn)
    Table: Structure of Mass Grocery Retail Market by Value (EURmn)
    Table: Annual Average Sales per Outlet by Format - 2009
Competitive Landscape
    Table: Key Players in Dutch Food Sector
Key Players in Dutch Drink Sector
Key Players in Dutch Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Company Analysis
Heineken International
Mass Grocery Retail
BMI Food & Drink Methodology
Food And Drink Business Environment Ratings
    Table: Rewards
    Table: Risks
    Table: Weighting
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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