Colombia Food and Drink Report Q3 2012

Date: July 3, 2012
Pages: 126
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

As we believe that economic growth will remain strong further into the year, we have revised up our 2012 forecast for real GDP growth in Colombia, from 4.5% to 4.7%. Growth will be driven by a combination of private consumption and fixed investment, supported by strong foreign direct investment.

Indeed, the major accelerator for Colombian real GDP growth will continue to be private consumption; we expect this to continue over the next few years, boosted by strong credit expansion and low unemployment. In addition, Colombia’s large proportion of low-income consumers means the country has one of the lowest per-capita food consumption rates within the region, leaving much room for growth.

Headline Industry Data (in local currency):
  • 2012 per capita food consumption = +13%; forecast to 2016 = +38.1%.
  • 2012 alcoholic drink sales = +6%; forecast to 2016 = +20.3%.
  • 2012 soft drink sales = +8.1%; forecast to 2016 = +27.4%.
  • 2012 mass grocery retail sales = +15.5%; forecast to 2016 = +47.7%.
Key Company Trends Nutresa Modernises and Expands: Colombia’s largest food and drink company Grupo Nutresa (formerly Nacional de Chocolates) has recently announced plans to invest US$100mn in order to expand its production capacity and modernise some of its food plants. On the international front the group has not ruled out further acquisitions during the year. According to senior officials the company has up to US$100mn firepower for possible takeovers and is actively searching for potential candidates. At least one or two purchases, possibly in Mexico or Central America, are likely during 2012.

Exito Forges Ahead: Colombia’s largest retailer Almacenes Exito (controlled by French giant Casino) has recently reported buoyant results for 2011 driven by strong domestic consumption. Net profit rose by over 52% for the year, whilst group sales rose by almost 18% to exceed COP8.8bn. The retailer expects to maintain this rate of performance in 2012 with a plan to open more than 100 stores over the year.

Accordingly the retailer is to invest COP200mn over the year to open new stores under the Surtimax, Pomona and Express banners, concentrating on intermediate sized population catchment areas of over 40,000. The group is also launching into new businesses such as opening shopping centres under the Viva banner.

Key Risks To Outlook Monetary Policy: At the domestic level, monetary policy and banking sector regulation could pose important downside risks to our outlook. A sharp rise in private consumption following a policy rate cut would pose an upside risk to our imports forecast, and by extension it would likely result in a larger than expected current account deficit.

Potential Impact Of External Slowdown: Externally, if oil prices decline significantly in response to a larger than expected slowdown in Europe or China, it would pose a downside risk to our exports forecast.

Moreover, a global slowdown could also dry up foreign investment, further damaging Colombia's ability to finance its current account shortfall.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Colombia Food Industry SWOT
Colombia Drink Industry SWOT
Colombia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Business Environment
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views
  Table: BMI’s Core Views
Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings
  Table: Latin America Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q312 (out of 10)
  Table: Latin America Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q312
Colombia Risk/Reward Ratings
Macroeconomic Section
  Table: Colombia – Selected Investment Projects
  Table: Colombia – Economic Activity
Latin America Sector Outlook
Bullish Outlook For Colombian Food And Drink
  Table: Latin America Food & Drink Outlook
  Table: Company Financials
Latin America Sector Outlook
Brewing Will Continue To Consolidate Around Heineken, SABMiller, ABI
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Food Consumption
  Table: Colombia Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts
  Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Canned Food/Prepared Food
  Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
  Table: Jams And Jellies
  Table: Pasta
  Table: Dairy
  Table: Meat
  Table: Fish
Hot Drinks
  Table: Hot Drink Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Alcoholic Drinks
  Table: Alcoholic Drink Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Soft Drinks
  Table: Soft Drink Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Mass Grocery Retail
  Table: Colombia Mass Grocery Retail – Value Sales by Format – Historical Data & Forecasts
  Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, %
  Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance – Historical Data & Forecasts
Key Company Trends And Developments
Nutresa Modernises and Expands
Aid For Banana Sector
Dairy Investment Will Trigger Growth In Remote Areas
International Expansion With Focus On The US
Growth In Added-Value Products
Trade Affected By Venezuelan Relations
Market Overview
Key Company Trends And Developments
SABmiller Raises Volume Forecasts At Expense Of Price Growth
Brewing Will Continue To Consolidate Around Heineken, SABMiller, ABI
FEMSA Investing In Colombia
Opportunities For Coffee
Market Overview
Hot Drinks
Soft Drinks And Bottled Water
Alcoholic Drinks
Mass Grocery Retail
Key Company Trends And Developments
Exito Forges Ahead
Ripley To Open First Colombian Outlet
J. Martins To Launch In Colombia With Biedronka Discount Model
Exito Regional Profile Boosted
Colombian Convenience Sector To Become Keenly Contested Battleground
Market Overview
  Table: Structure Of Colombia’s MGR Market – Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2004-2010
  Table: Structure Of Colombia’s MGR Market – Value Sales By Format, 2004-2010 (US$bn)
  Table: Structure Of Colombia’s MGR Market – Sales By Format, 2004-2010 (COPbn)
  Table: Average Annual Sales Value By Format, 2010
Competitive Landscape
Consumer Share Price Analysis
Key Players
  Table: Key Players in Colombia's Food Sector
  Table: Key Players in Colombia's Drink Sector
  Table: Key Players in Colombia's Mass Grocery Retail Market
Company Profiles
C.I. Union de Bananeros de Uraba (Uniban)
Alianza Team (Tecnologia Empresarial de Alimentos)
Grupo Nutresa
SABMiller Colombia
Mass Grocery Retail
Almacenes Exito
Carrefour (Colombia)
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
  Table: Rewards
  Table: Risks
  Table: Weighting
BMI Methodology
Demographic Outlook
  Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
  Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
  Table: Colombia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
  Table: Colombia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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