China Sugar Market Analysis and Forecast Report (2009-2010)

Date: November 22, 2009
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US$ 1,650.00
Publisher: Beijing Shennong Kexin Agribusiness Consulting Co., Ltd
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: CCBD2FB3AB0EN
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China Sugar Market Analysis and Forecast Report (2009-2010)
Research Background

The international sugar marker initially changed from having an over-supply to an under-supply due to the decreased output from India. Additionally, the international sugar price almost rose to a 30 year high during the 2008/09 campaign.

The overall situation of China's sugar market could be summarized as " down two, up three and a change".Namely, there was a substantial decline in sugar production, sugarcane farmers revenues declined 46%; sugar prices increased by nearly 50%, profits of producing sugar and sugar consumption continued to increase and sugar supply and demand changed from having an over-supply to a tight balance between supply and demand.

Following the commencement of the new campaign of 2009/10, will China's sugar output change? What will the extent of sugar consumption be? What will happen regarding China's sugar trade in 2010? What will be the trends in sugar prices? etc. All the above questions will be discussed and analyzed in this report.

This report is based on the data from a series of authoritative organizations, such as the national Ministry of Agriculture, Bureau of Statistics, Customs General Administration, Ministry of Commerce and China Sugar Association, combined with information in the Shennong database for analytical reasoning purposes.

This report provides clear, objective points and detailed and accurate data combined with quantitative analytical methods which indicate the characteristics of development and change in the 2009 China sugar market via a large number of clear, accurate charts. Additionally, the report also analysis and predicts the China sugar market in 2010.
SECTION I. ANALYSIS OF CHINA'S SUGAR MARKET POLICIES IN 2009

1. CHINA'S SUGAR POLICY ON PURCHASING, STORAGE AND IMPORT

1.1 National purchasing and storage of sugar
  1.1.1 National policy on purchasing and storage in 2009
  1.1.2 310 thousands tons of national sugar purchased and stored in 2009
1.2 Application and allocation of sugar import quota

SECTION II. ANALYSIS ON CHINA'S SUGAR PRODUCTION IN 2009

2 ANALYSIS OF CHINA'S SUGAR CROP PRODUCTION

2.1 Outline of China's sugar production

2.2 Analysis of changes in national planting areas and in main production areas
  2.2.1 Slight increase in sugarcane cultivation area, beet cultivation area declines in 2009
  2.2.2 Large decrease in sugar cultivation area in Guangdong and Inner Mongolia

2.3 Analysis of change in national sugar crop yield and yield in main production areas
  2.3.1 National average yields of sugarcane and beet decrease significantly due to extremily cold weather conditions.
  2.3.2 Sugar Crop Yield in Hainan and Heilongjiang highly declines s

2.4 Analysis of changes in the productivity of mixed sugar in the national sugar crop and productivity in main production areas.
  2.4.1 Slight increase in the productivity of mixed cane sugar, but Decline in Beet Sugar
  2.4.2 Maximum productivity of mixed cane sugar in Yunnan, highest productivity of mixed beet sugar in Heilongjiang

3 ANALYSIS OF CHINA SUGAR CROP COST AND BENEFIT

3.1 Analysis of changes in sugar crop production costs in the whole country and in main production areas
  3.1.1 Small increase in sugar crop production cost in 2008
  3.1.2 Increase in the sugar production costs in Hainan and Inner Mongolia

3.2 Analysis of change in sugar crop benefit in the whole country and in main production areas
  3.2.1 Analysis of change in purchase price of sugar crops in the whole Country and in main production areas
    3.2.1.1 Slight decrease in the purchase price of sugarcane, slight increase in sugar beet in 2008
    3.2.1.2 Largest decline in sugarcane purchase price in Guangdong; biggest increase in Beet purchase price in Xinjiang
  3.2.2 Analysis of changes in net profit of sugar crops in the whole country and in main production areas
    3.2.2.1 Sugarcane net profit decrease of 45.44%, beet net profit increase of 44.72% in 2008
    3.2.2.2 Largest reduction in net profit of sugarcane in Guangdong; largest increase in net profit of beet in Heilongjiang
  3.2.3 Comparison of the planting benefits of main crops in main production areas
    3.2.3.1 Comparison of the growing benefits rice, sugarcane and silkworm in Guangxi, 2008
    3.2.3.2 Comparison of the growing benefits of rice, sugarcane and silkworm in Guangdong, 2008
    3.2.3.3 Comparison of the planting benefits of rice, sugarcane and potato in Yunnan, 2008
    3.2.3.4 Comparison of the planting benefits ofrice, soybean, corn and beet in Heilongjiang, 2008
    3.2.3.5 Comparison of the planting benefits of corn, wheat, cotton and beet in Xinjiang, 2008

4 ANALYSIS ON PRODUCTION OF CHINA'S SUGAR AND SUGAR SUBSTITUTES

4.1 Changes in sugar production in China
  4.1.1 During the 2008/09 campaign China's sugar production declines 2.4 million tons in comparison with the previous campaign
  4.1.2 With the exception of production increase in Yunnna Province, other main production areas decrease
  4.1.3 Yangpu Nanhua Sugar Group Company ranks first in sugar production in China
4.2 Analysis of substitute production
  4.2.1 Slight increase in China's Saccharin output in 2009
  4.2.2 Substantial increase in China's Starch sugar output in 2009

SECTION III. ANALYSIS OF CHINA'S SUGAR TRADE IN 2009

5 ANALYSIS FOR CHINA'S SUGAR AND SACCHARIN SALES

5.1 Analysis of sugar sales
  5.1.1 12.06 million tons of Sugar Sold Nationally in 2008/09 Campaign
  5.1.2 Highest Sugar sale rate in Guangxi and lowest rate in Yunnan in 2008/09 Campaign

5.2 China Saccharin sales increase slightly in 2009

6 ANALYSIS ON IMPORT AND EXPORT OF CHINA'S SUGAR

6.1 Import
  6.1.1 Significant increase in China's sugar import, corresponding increase in import sum in 2009
  6.1.2 General trade, main import mode
  6.1.3 Mainly Import of raw cane sugar and granulated sugar
  6.1.4 Analysis of raw cane sugar import in 2009
    6.1.4.1 Import prices rise gradually
    6.1.4.2 Cuba and Brazil, main importing countries
    6.1.4.3 Analysis on Import by province
    6.1.4.4 Analysis on Import by customs
  6.1.5 Analysis of granulated sugar import in 2009
    6.1.5.1 Significant increase in Import cost
    6.1.5.2 Korea and Thailand, main importing countries
    6.1.5.3 Analysis on import by province
    6.1.5.4 Analysis on import by Customs

6.2 Export
  6.2.1 Small increase in China's sugar export value, no change to export volume
  6.2.2 Processing with imported materials, main trade mode
  6.2.3 Main export for granulated sugar and refined Sugar
  6.2.4 Analysis of granulated sugar export in 2009
    6.2.4.1 Large Export price fluctuation
    6.2.4.2 Hong Kong, Main Export Destination for granulated sugar
    6.2.4.3 Analysis on Export by province
    6.2.4.4 Analysis on Export by Customs
  6.2.5 Analysis on Export of refined sugar in 2009
    6.2.5.1 Large Export Price Increase
    6.2.5.2 Hong Kong, main export destination
    6.2.5.3 Analysis on export by province
    6.2.5.4 Analysis on Export by customs

7 ANALYSIS ON SUBSTITUTE SUGAR EXPORT

7.1 Analysis of saccharin Export
  7.1.1 Slight reduction in Saccharin exports in 2009
  7.1.2 Germany and Brazil, main exporting countries

7.2 Analysis of Starch Sugar Export
  7.2.1 Analysis of starch sugar Export in 2009
  7.2.2 Analysis of starch sugar Export by variety in 2009

SECTION IV. ANALYSIS OF CHINA'S SUGAR CONSUMPTION IN 2009

8 ANALYSIS OF CHINA'S SUGAR CONSUMPTION

8.1 Analysis of industrial Consumption of sugar
  8.1.1 Analysis of Production of main food with sugar content in 2009
    8.1.1.1 Small rise in Confectionery production,
    8.1.1.2 Increase in Pastry Production
    8.1.1.3 Rise in Biscuit Production,
    8.1.1.4 Small decline in Frozen Staple Food Production
    8.1.1.5 Slight Rise in Dairy Product Production
    8.1.1.6 Large rise in Canned Food Production
    8.1.1.7 Increase in Carbonated Drink production
    8.1.1.8 Large rise in Fruit/vegetable Juice/drink Production
    8.1.1.9 Rise in Frozen Beverage Production,
  8.1.2 Analysis of change in sugar consumption of main foods with sugar content
    8.1.2.1 Analysis of amount of sugar consumed in confectioneries in 2009
    8.1.2.2 Analysis of amount of sugar consumed in pastries in 2009
    8.1.2.3 Analysis of amount of sugar consumed in biscuits in 2009
    8.1.2.4 Analysis of amount of sugar consumed in frozen staple food products in 2009
    8.1.2.5 Analysis of amount of sugar consumed in dairy products in 2009
    8.1.2.6 Analysis of amount of sugar consumed in canned foods in 2009
    8.1.2.7 Analysis of amount of sugar consumed in carbonated drinks in 2009
    8.1.2.8 Analysis of amount of sugar consumed in fruit/vegetable juice/drinks in 2009
    8.1.2.9 Analysis of amount of sugar consumed in frozen beverages in 2009
  8.1.3 11.2 million tons of industrial sugar consumption in China in 2009

8.2 2.30 million tons of household sugar consumption in China in 2009
8.3 13.50 million tons of sugar consumption in China in 2009

SECTION V. ANALYSIS OF PRICE CHANGES IN CHINA'S SUGAR IN 2009

9 PRICE CHANGES IN CHINA'S SUGAR

9.1 Price of China's white granulated sugar raises 49.94% and soft granulated sugar raises 61.46% in 2009
  9.1.1 Decline in Sugar production to affect sugar price
  9.1.2 National sugar purchasing and storage to affect sugar price
  9.1.3 International sugar price to affect China's sugar price
9.2 Analysis of future price changes for China's sugar in 2009
9.3 Analysis of price comparisons between imported raw sugar processed into white granulated sugar and national white granulated sugar

SECTION VI. ANALYSIS OF CHINA'S SUGAR INDUSTRY PROFITS IN 2009

10 ANALYSIS OF CHINA'S SUGAR INDUSTRY PROFITS

10.1 Analysis of change in sugar profits per ton in whole Country and in main production areas
  10.1.1 Large rise in Sugar Profits per ton in China's sugar industry in 2008/09 campaign
  10.1.2 Various analyses of sugar profits per ton in cane sugar production areas
  10.1.3 Various analyses of sugar profits per ton in beet sugar production areas

10.2 Analysis of Profits in China's Sugar Industry
  10.2.1 RMB 4.11 Billion Profit and Tax of the Sugar Manufacturing Industry in 2008/09 Campaign
  10.2.2 Highest profit in Guangxi; lowest profit in Guangdong in cane sugar production areas in 2008/09 campaign

SECTION VII. ANALYSIS ON SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF CHINA'S SUGAR

11 RATIO OF STOCK TO CONSUMPTION 28.22% IN 2008/09 CAMPAIGN

SECTION VIII. ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF CHINA'S SUGAR MARKET IN 2010

12 ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF CHINA'S SUGAR MARKET IN 2010

12.1 Analysis and Forecast of China's Sugar and substitute sugar production
  12.1.1 Around 12.50 Million Tons of sugar output in China in 2010
  12.1.2 No big changes in China's Saccharin production in 2010
  12.1.3 Minor growth in China's starch sugar output in 2010

12.2 Analysis and Forecast of sugar and substitute import and export volume
  12.2.1 Growth of China's sugar import and export volume in 2010
  12.2.2 Minor growth of China's Saccharin export volume in 2010
  12.2.3 Growth of China's starch sugar export volume in 2010

12.3 Approximately 14.00 Million Tons of Sugar consumption in China in 2010
12.4 Minor growth of China's sugar price in 2010, mainly steady trend
12.5 Ratio of Stock to Consumption 23.35% in 2009/10 Campaign

ATTACHED TABLES AND FIGURES

Table 1. National sugar purchasing and storage and release volume, 2000-2009
Table 2. National sugar import quota and tariff, 1999-2010
Table 3. Sugar crop Acreage and yield and Productivity of mixed sugar both nationally and in Main Production Areas, 2009
Table 4. Sugar crop production cost both nationally and in main production area, 2008
Table 5. Sugar crop purchase price both nationally and in main production areas, 2008
Table 6. Sugar crop net profit both nationally and in main production areas s, 2008
Table 7. Guangxi rice, cane and silkworm growing profits, 2003-2008
Table 8. Guangdong rice, cane and silkworm growing profits, 2003-2008
Table 9. Yunnan rice, cane and potato planting profits, 2003-2008
Table 10. Heilongjiang rice, soybean, corn and beet planting profits, 2003-2008
Table 11. Xinjiang corn, wheat, cotton and beet planting profits, 2003-2008
Table 12. China Sugar Production by Production Region in 2008/09 campaign
Table 13. Sugar output of top 20 National sugar enterprises in 2008/09 campaign
Table 14. China Saccharin output by month in 2009
Table 15. Sugar sales and ratio of sale to output both Nationally and in main production areas, 2006/07~2008/09
Table 16. China's sugar import by variety, 2006-2009
Table 17. China's Raw Cane Sugar Import volume and price by country in 2009
Table 18. China's Raw Cane Sugar Import volume and price by province in 2009
Table 19. China's Raw Cane Sugar Import volume and price by customs in 2009
Table 20. China's granulated Sugar Import volume and price by country in 2009
Table 21. China's granulated Sugar Import volume and price by province in 2009
Table 22. China's granulated Sugar Import volume and price by customs in 2009
Table 23. China's Sugar Export by variety(2006-2009)
Table 24. China's granulated Sugar export volume and price by Country of Destination in 2009
Table 25. China's granulated Sugar export volume and price by province in 2009
Table 26. China's granulated Sugar export volume and price by customs in 2009
Table 27. China's Refined Sugar export volume and price by country of Destination in 2009
Table 28. China's Refined Sugar export volume and price by province in 2009
Table 29. China's Refined Sugar export volume and price by customs in 2009
Table 30. China's Saccharin export volume and price by country of Destination in 2009
Table 31. China's starch sugar export volume by variety in 2009
Table 32. Output of main food with sugar content of above-scale enterprises in China in 2009
Table 33. Sugar consumption of main food with sugar content in China, 2009
Table 34. Average monthly profits of sugar per ton both nationally and in main production areas in 2008/09 campaign
Table 35. Average sugar cost and profit of main cane sugar production areas in 2008/09 campaign
Table 36. Sugar supply and demand in China, 2004/05~2008/09
Table 37. Sugar production forecast in China in 2009/10 campaign
Table 38. China's sugar supply and demand, 2004/05~2009/10

Fig. 1. China's Sugar production distribution
Fig. 2. China's Sugar crop areas, 1961-2009
Fig. 3. Main Sugar cane production areas, 1961-2009
Fig. 4. Main Beet production areas, 1961-2009
Fig. 5. China's average sugar crop yield, 1961-2009
Fig. 6. Average sugar cane yield of main production areas, 1961-2009
Fig. 7. Average Beet yield of main production areas, 1961-2009
Fig. 8. Ratio of mixed sugar produced from sugar cane and beet in China, 1991-2009
Fig. 9. Mixed sugar production from main sugar cane production areas, 1991-2009
Fig. 10. Mixed sugar production from main Beet production areas, 1991-2009
Fig. 11. China sugar crop production cost, 1998-2008
Fig. 12. Production costs in Main Sugar cane producing areas, 1998-2008
Fig. 13. Production costs in Beet production areas, 1998-2008
Fig. 14. China's sugar crop purchasing price, 1998-2008
Fig. 15. Purchasing price in main Sugar cane production areas, 1998-2008
Fig. 16. Purchasing price in main Beet production areas, 1998-2008
Fig. 17. China's net sugar crop profit, 1998-2008
Fig. 18. net profit of main Sugar cane production areas, 1998-2008
Fig. 19. Net profit of Mian Beet production areas, 1998-2008
Fig. 20. China's sugar output, 1990/91~2008/09
Fig. 21. Sugar output of main Cane Sugar production areas, 1990/91~2008/09
Fig. 22. Sugar output of Main Beet Sugar production areas, 1990/91~2008/09
Fig. 23. China's Saccharin output, 1999-2009
Fig. 24. China's starch sugar output, 1988-2009
Fig. 25. China's starch sugar output by variety in 2009
Fig. 26. China's sugar sales volume, 1990/91~2008/09
Fig. 27. China's sugar sales volume by month, 2006/07~2008/09
Fig. 28. Sugar sales volume of Mian Cane Sugar production areas, 1990/91~2008/09
Fig. 29. Sugar sales volume of Main Beet Sugar production areas, 1990/91~2008/09
Fig. 30. Total ratio of sugar sales to output in Main Cane Sugar production areas, 2006/07~2008/09
Fig. 31. Total ratio of sugar sales to output of Main Beet Sugar production areas, 2006/07~2008/09
Fig. 32. China's Saccharin sales volume, 1999-2009
Fig. 33. China's Saccharin sales volume by month in 2009
Fig. 34. China's Sugar import volume and price, 2000- 2009
Fig. 35. China's Sugar import trade mode, 2000- 2009
Fig. 36. China's Raw Cane Sugar import price by month, 2006-2009
Fig. 37. China's Raw Cane Sugar import volume by country, 2000-2009
Fig. 38. China's Raw Cane Sugar import volume by province, 2008-2009
Fig. 39. China's Raw Cane Sugar import volume by customs, 2008-2009
Fig. 40. China's granulated Sugar import price by month, 2006-2009
Fig. 41. China's granulated Sugar import volume by country, 2000-2009
Fig. 42. China's granulated Sugar import volume by province, 2008-2009
Fig. 43. China's granulated Sugar import volume by customs, 2008-2009
Fig. 44. China's Sugar export volume and price, 2000-2009
Fig. 45. China's Sugar export trade mode, 2000-2009
Fig. 46. China's granulated Sugar export price by month, 2006-2009
Fig. 47. China's granulated Sugar export volume by country of Destination, 2000-2009
Fig. 48. China's granulated Sugar export volume by province, 2008-2009
Fig. 49. China's granulated Sugar export volume by customs, 2008-2009
Fig. 50. China's Refined Sugar export price by month, 2006-2009
Fig. 51. China's Refined Sugar export volume by country of Destination, 2006-2009
Fig. 52. China's Refined Sugar export volume by province, 2008-2009
Fig. 53. China's Refined Sugar export volume by customs, 2008-2009
Fig. 54. China's Saccharin export volume, 1999-2009
Fig. 55. China's Saccharin export volume by month in 2009
Fig. 56. China's starch sugar export volume, 2001-2009
Fig. 57. China's starch sugar export volume by month in 2009
Fig. 58. Confectionery Output of above-scale enterprises in China, 2003-2009
Fig. 59. Pastry Output of above-scale enterprises in China, 2003-2009
Fig. 60. Biscuit Output of above-scale enterprises in China, 2003-2009
Fig. 61. Fast-frozen Staple Food Output of above-scale enterprises in China, 2003-2009
Fig. 62. Dairy Product Output of above-scale enterprises in China, 2003-2009
Fig. 63. Canned Food Output of above-scale enterprises in China, 2003-2009
Fig. 64. Carbonated Drink Output of above-scale enterprises in China, 2003-2009
Fig. 65. Fruit/vegetable Juices/drink Output of above-scale enterprises in China, 2003-2009
Fig. 66. Frozen Beverage Output of above-scale enterprises in China, 2003-2009
Fig. 67. Sugar consumption volume of Confectioneries in China, 2003-2009
Fig. 68. Sugar consumption volume of Pastry in China, 2003-2009
Fig. 69. Sugar consumption volume of Biscuits China, 2003-2009
Fig. 70. Sugar consumption volume of Fast-frozen Staple Foodin China, 2003-2009
Fig. 71. Sugar consumption volume of Dairy Products in China, 2003-2009
Fig. 72. Sugar consumption volume of Canned Food in China, 2003-2009
Fig. 73. Sugar consumption volume of Carbonated Drinks in China, 2003-2009
Fig. 74. Sugar consumption volume of Fruit/vegetable Juices/drinks in China, 2003-2009
Fig. 75. Sugar consumption volume of Frozen Beverages in China, 2003-2009
Fig. 76. China's industrial sugar consumption volume and growth rate, 1991-2009
Fig. 77. China's household sugar consumption volume and growth rate, 1991-2009
Fig. 78. China's sugar consumption volume and growth rate, 1991-2009
Fig. 79. China's industrial and household sugar consumption volume in 2009
Fig. 80. China's Average Sugar Price by month, 1997-2009
Fig. 81. Average Price of White Granulated Sugar and Soft White Sugar in China 2007-2009
Fig. 82. Raw Sugar FOB of Main port, 2008-2009
Fig. 83. China's future Sugar Price, 2006-2009
Fig. 84. Price difference between imported raw sugar processed into white granulated sugar and national white granulated sugar, 2008-2009
Fig. 85. China's sugar Profit per ton, 2007-2009
Fig. 86. China's sugar Profit per ton in cane sugar production areas, 2007-2009
Fig. 87. China's sugar Profit per ton in beet sugar production areas, 2007-2009
Fig. 88. China's Saccharin output, 1999-2010
Fig. 89. China's starch sugar output, 1988-2010
Fig. 90. China's starch sugar export volume, 2001-2010
Fig. 91. China's Saccharin export volume, 1999-2010
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