Belarus Food and Drink Report Q1 2012

Date: January 22, 2012
Pages: 80
US$ 1,175.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

The consumer outlook for Belarus will remain extremely challenging, largely on account of massive currency devaluation and skyrocketing inflation levels. We expect consumer price inflation in the country to remain close to triple-digit territory over the next few months, effectively wiping out premiumisation in the food and drinks market. Imports of foodstuffs will remain necessary, but they will be prohibitively expensive for most of the population. The country remains in need of further external financing in order to avoid a more severe devaluation of the currency, which will continue to depress domestic demand.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

  • 2011 food consumption = +28.23%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2016 = +18.81%
  • 2011 per capita food consumption = +28.72%; forecast CAGR to 2016 = +19.19%
  • 2011 alcoholic drinks value sales = +28.18%; forecast CAGR to 2016 = +18.17%
  • 2011 per capita alcoholic drinks consumption = +28.66%; forecast CAGR to 2016 = +18.54%

Key Company Trends

Belarus And Vietnam Looking To Cooperate In Dairy And Meat Sectors: According to local press, quoting First Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Food Nadezhda Kotkovets in December 2011, Belarus is to set up a joint dairy venture in Vietnam. Belarus is reportedly to provide supplies of powdered milk to the South East Asian country, which would be used to manufacture dairy products there. Similarly, Belarus and Vietnam are also interested in cooperation in the meat industry, with Minsk Meat Packaging Plant already expressing interest in exporting finished goods to Vietnam.

Key Risks To Outlook Downward Risk Across The Board: Having upgraded our end-2011 consumer price inflation estimate, we note that the potential for consumer price inflation to head even higher in the first few months of 2012 remains strong. The outlook in the latter half of 2012 remains less certain, requiring the government to pursue significantly tighter fiscal and monetary policy, which may include public sector wage cuts. Even should the authorities manage to stabilise the currency and medium-term inflationary levels, the economic outlook facing Belarus remains severe. Indeed, household demand and economic confidence across the board will continue to come under pressure as higher import costs and punitive interest rates take their toll. As a result, political risks will most likely continue to build.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Belarus Food Industry SWOT
Belarus Drink Industry SWOT
Belarus Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Business Environment
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views
Table: Agricultural Commodity Prices
Table: Core Views Q112
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Economic Activity, 2011 - 2016
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Confectionery
Canned And Processed Foods
Table: Meat
Table: Jams And Jellies
Table: Pasta
Table: Baked Goods
Table: Dairy
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drinks
Soft Drinks
Table: Soft Drinks
Hot Drinks
Table: Hot Drinks
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Trade Balance – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Trade In Select Goods
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Belarus And Vietnam To Cooperate In Dairy Production
Belarusian Food-Processing Industries Attracting Investment
Country Aims To Expand Export Potential
Market Overview
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Multinationals Continuing To Invest
Local Firms Look To Increase Presence In Soft Drinks Market
Market Overview
Alcoholic Drinks
Leading Brewers
Soft Drinks
Hot Drinks
Mass Grocery Retail
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Operating Environment Remains Challenging
Market Had Been Of Interest In Recent Years
Market Overview
Leading Retailers
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players In Belarus’s Food Sector
Table: Key Players In Belarus’s Drink Sector
Table: Key Players In Belarus’s Mass Grocery Retail Industry
Company Monitor
Kraft Foods
Mass Grocery Retail
Sedmoi Kontinent
BMI Methodology
Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Ratings Methodology
Ratings System
Table: Limits Of Potential Returns
Table: Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns
Table: Weighting
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting And Sources
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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