Mexico Real Estate Report Q3 2014

Date: July 23, 2014
Pages: 56
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: M4E667C72B1EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We are forecasting Mexico's commercial real estate industry to show a consistent, yet unremarkable performance over 2014, with rental rates across all sub-sectors expected to remain flat as the standoff between the market's long-term potential and macroeconomic headwinds continues. The country has one of the most stable growth outlooks in the region and an operating environment which is seeing tangible improvements and rising longer-term prospects. Nevertheless, the poor financial condition of many of the country's residential developers is a threat. As such, we are forecasting growth to remain flat in the sector in 2014, with the only obvious signs of growth coming in the office and retail real estate sectors in Tijuana.

To the detriment of the near-term growth of Mexico's real estate sector, the macroeconomic backdrop in Mexico is not as strong as it once was. Real GDP growth in 2013 arrived even lower than our expectations, at 1.1% against our forecast for 1.6%, due to a weaker-than-expected performance by the manufacturing and construction sectors in recent months. However, we forecast an acceleration in growth in 2014 to 3.1%, driven by an improvement in private consumption and investment in light of the government's ongoing reform drive and stronger US demand.
BMI Industry View
Business Environment
Industry Forecast
  Table: Office Forecast Rents, 2014-2015 (USD/sq m/month)
  Table: Office Forecast Net Yield, 2014-2018 (%)
  Table: Retail Forecast Rents, 2014-2015 (USD/sq m/month)
  Table: Retail Forecast Net Yield, 2014-2018 (%)
  Table: Industrial Forecast Rents, 2013-2014, (USD/sq m/month)
  Table: Industrial Forecast Net Yield, 2014-2018 (%)
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
  Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Mexico 2012-2017)
  Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Mexico 2018-2023)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
  Table: Mexico - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings
  Table: Latin America Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings
Mexico - Risk/Reward Ratings
Market Overview
Mexico City
  Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases, H213
  Table: Historic Rents, 2012-Q114 (USD per m2/month)
  Table: Net Yield, 2012-2014 (%)
  Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases, H213
  Table: Historic Rents, 2012-2014 (USD/sq m/month)
  Table: Net Yield, 2012-2014 (%)
Mexico Retail Sales Indicators
  Table: Retail Sales Indicators, 2010-2017
  Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases, H213
  Table: Historic Rents, 2012-2014 (USD/sq m/month)
  Table: Net Yield, 2012-2014 (%)
Competitive Landscape
Company Profile
Empresas ICA
Demographic Forecast
  Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
  Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
  Table: Mexico's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
  Table: Mexico's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
  Table: Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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Mexico Real Estate Report Q1 2015 US$ 1,295.00 Nov, 2014 · 62 pages
Mexico Real Estate Report Q2 2014 US$ 1,295.00 Apr, 2014 · 58 pages
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