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Tanzania Business Forecast Report Q1 2015

Date: December 12, 2014
Pages: 45
Price:
US$ 1,195.00
Publisher: Business Monitor International
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: T5C9C2983AEEN
Leaflet:

Download PDF Leaflet

Core Views

Tanzania's economy will see real growth of 6.9% in 2015 and 7.3% in 2016. Our 2015 forecast has been revised down in the wake of the power scandal troubling the country's government, which has led to funds being withheld by international donors.

Rising uncertainty over future energy policy in Tanzania runs the risk of pushing back crucial investment into the offshore gas sector. Although we believe that CCM will win the October 2015 elections, a united opposition will lead to increasing resource nationalism in campaigning.

Monetary policy in Tanzania, executed primarily through open market operations and sales of foreign exchange, will continue to be relatively tight in 2015 as the Bank of Tanzania looks to bring in inflation. It will be aided in this aim by falling global oil prices.

Major Forecast Changes

Real GDP growth in 2015 has been revised down from 7.3% to 6.9%.
Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks To Outlook

CHAPTER 1: POLITICAL OUTLOOK

SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Resource Nationalism Will Rise As Elections Near
Rising uncertainty over future energy policy in Tanzania runs the risk of pushing back crucial investment into the offshore gas sector. Although we believe that CCM will win the October 2015 elections, a united opposition will lead to increasing resource nationalism in campaigning.
  Table: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Corruption And Reliance On Foreign Money High On The Agenda
Tanzania will continue to enjoy broad political stability over the coming decade, with little to suggest that the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi party's authority will be threatened. That is not to say the 201 5-202 3 period will be without challenges. Chief among these will be dealing with high levels of corruption and addressing the country's dependence on foreign aid.

CHAPTER 2: ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Activity
Withheld Donor Funds Will Impinge On 2015 Growth
Tanzania's economy will see real growth of 6.9% in 2015 and 7.3% in 2016. Our 2015 forecast has been revised down in the wake of the power scandal troubling the country's government, which has led to funds being withheld by international donors.
  Table: Eco nomic Acti vit y
Exchange Rate Policy
TZS: Looking Technically And Fundamentally Weak
The Tanzanian shilling is looking weak as withheld funding from international donors has prompted a break through major technical support. Even if the funds are released, we forecast ongoing depreciation against the US dollar.
  Table: CURENCY FORECAST
Monetary Policy
5.0% Target In Sight In 2015
Monetary policy in Tanzania, executed primarily through open market operations and sales of foreign exchange, will continue to be relatively tight in 2015 as the Bank of Tanzania looks to bring in inflation. It will be aided in this aim by falling global oil prices.
  Table: Monetar y Polic y
Fiscal Policy
Delays To Budget Support Threaten Economic Growth
The withholding of general budget support aid by international donors increases risk to economic growth in Tanzania, as it is public investment that will suffer.

CHAPTER 3: 10-YEAR FORECAST

The Tanzanian Economy To 2023
Robust Growth Forecast On Gas Investment
We are forecasting a period of robust growth in the Tanzanian economy in the years ahead, as the country looks set to benefit from its nascent offshore gas sector, and the investment being pumped in to the country to develop this.
  Table: Long-Term Macroeco nomic Forecasts

CHAPTER 4: OPERATIONAL RISK

Operational Risk Index
Operational Risk
  Table: Operational Risk
Transport Network
  Table: SSA Transport Network Risks
Economic Openness
  Table: Sub -Sahara n Africa – Eco nomic Ope nnes
  Table: Top 5 Product Exported (USDmn)
  Table: Top 5 Trade Part ners Product Imports (USDmn)

CHAPTER 5: KEY SECTORS

Infrastructure
  Table: Infrastructure & Construction Industry Data
  Table: Infrastructure & Construction Industry Data
Other Key Sectors
  Table: Oil & Gas Sector Key Indicators
  Table: Pharma Sector Key Indicators
  Table: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators
  Table: Food & Drink Sector Key Indicators
  Table: Autos Sector Key Indicators

CHAPTER 6: BMI GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS

Global Outlook
Warning Signs Growing
  Table: Global Assumptio ns
  Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
  Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
  Table: Emergi ng Markets , Real GDP Growt h, %
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