Ghana Business Forecast Report Q1 2015

Date: November 15, 2014
Pages: 38
US$ 1,195.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: G697A9A025DEN

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Ghana Business Forecast Report Q1 2015
Core Views

Economic growth in Ghana will be buoyant over 2015-2018 thanks to improving power supplies, rising oil production and strong investment inflows – the latter encouraged by IMF policy oversight.

Foreign investment inflows will be robust thanks to Ghana’s abundant natural resources and relative political stability. The current account deficit and fiscal deficit will remain key structural weaknesses in the economy. Peaceful protests against economic hardship will continue, despite the fact that the government has approached the IMF for assistance.

Ghanaians are wary of the conditions that may be attached to IMF support.
Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks To Outlook


SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
On The Ground: Dissatisfaction, But High Hopes For IMF Deal
Our analyst on the ground in Accra reports that dissatisfaction with the Ghanaian government is high, as underscored by recent strikes over the management of pensions. However, people are confident that negotiations with the IMF will be successful, ushering in a muchneeded stabilisation of debt levels.
  Table: Political Overview
Long-Term Political Outlook
Oil To Prove A Critical Test For The Polity
Ghana's political risk profile is relatively favourable, especially in the context of West Africa. However, oil revenues will require careful management, presenting a formidable test for the government over the coming decade.


SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Activity
Economy On The Road To Recovery
Despite the ongoing economic turmoil in Ghana, real GDP growth will be strong over the coming years, fluctuating between 6.0-8.0%. Forthcoming IMF support will underpin investor confidence and rising oil & gas output will provide a significant boost to the economy.
  Table: Eco nomic Acti vit y
Exchange Rate Policy
GHS: Depreciatory Trend To Resume, Gently
The Ghanaian cedi's recovery has run its course. Depreciation will ensue over the coming two years owing to a wide current account deficit. However, the losses will be milder than those incurred over the past 18 months, thanks to a more stable macroeconomic climate.
  Table: Exchange Rate
Banking Sector Outlook
Banks Emerging Unscathed, Poised For Growth
The Ghanaian banking sector is emerging relatively unscathed from the past few months of economic turmoil, and is poised for robust growth over the coming years.
  Table: Currency Forecast
  Table: Banking Sector Statistics
Regional Economic Outlook
Ebola: Long-Lasting And Wide-Ranging Implications
The ongoing West African Ebola outbreak will have a catastrophic effect on the economies and societies of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. It also carries implications for economic growth in the wider West Africa region and in Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole. Restrictions on movement, rising prices and investor fears will hamper economic activity. The disease is not only stunting economic growth and turning back years of development, it is also breaking down social links and engendering distrust. The ramifications will be felt long after the disease's spread is brought under control as investment is curtailed, children orphaned and families ripped asunder. For these states, already both economically and politically fragile, the effects will be devastating
  Table: Gui nea - Eco nomic Acti vit y
  Table: Lib eria - Eco nomic Acti vit y
  Table: Sierra - Eco nomic Acti vit y


The Ghanaian Economy To 2023
Oil To Boost Growth Over The Long Term
We hold a positive long-term outlook on Ghana, forecasting that annual real GDP growth will average more than 6.0% over the coming 10 years. The ramping up of domestic oil production will provide significant impetus to the economy, allowing the mitigation of fiscal and current account drags.
  Table: Lo ng-Term Macro eco nomic For ecasts


Operational Risk Index
Operational Risk
  Table: Operational Risk
Transport Network
  Table: Transport Network Risks
Economic Openness
  Table: Eco nomic Openness
  Table: Top Five Trad e Part ners -Product Imports (USDmn)
  Table: Top 5 Product Exports (USDmn)


Global Outlook
Reality Check: Uncertainty Reigns
  Table: Globa l Assumptio ns
  Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
  Table: Em ergi ng Mar kets , Real GDP Growth , %
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