Angola Business Forecast Report Q1 2015

Date: December 12, 2014
Pages: 43
US$ 1,195.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: A32CA65E015EN

Download PDF Leaflet

Core Views

While the impact of falling oil prices on the Angolan economy will be keenly felt over the next few years, we believe that headline GDP growth is unlikely to be seriously affected. This is predicated on our belief that the non-oil sector will remain the primary engine of growth, driven by capital-intensive industries such as energy, construction and transport.

Plateauing oil revenues, a narrow tax base and heavy public spending will see Angola’s fiscal balance remain firmly in the red over the next few years. We predict that the country will sustain a sizeable fiscal shortfall – in the range of 6.0-8.5% of GDP – over our 2014-2018 forecast period.

The current account balance will steadily deteriorate over the next five years to stand at 1.0% of GDP by 2019, from an estimated 7.4% of GDP in 2014. We predict that the country will sustain a sizeable fiscal shortfall – in the range of 6.0-8.5% of GDP – over our 2014- 2018 forecast period.

Over the last six months, the country’s traditionally fractured opposition parties have shown greater unity and been more openly critical of the ruling Movimento Popular de Libertacao de Angola (MPLA). Popular anti-government protests, a frequent occurrence since 2011, have assumed a more organised and political edge.

Major Forecast Changes

We predict that real GDP growth will expand by 5.0% in 2015 and 5.2% in 2016. These forecasts contain modest downward revisions to incorporate a rise in inflation over the coming quarters due to the reduction of fuel subsidies.
Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks To Outlook


SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Falling Oil Prices To Heighten Tensions
Falling oil prices carry potentially significant political and social ramifications for Angola. While not an immediate threat to broad stability, rising living costs will fuel popular disquiet and heap further pressure on the government to deliver on its ambitious social development agenda.
  Table: Political Outlook
Long-Term Political Outlook
Path To Political Inclusion Uncertain And Slow
Although Angola has become one of the largest and fastest-growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa, its transition over the past decade has not been complemented by a move towards a more open political system. The concentration of power, both political and economic, presents the key challenge to economic development and risk to political stability over the coming decade.


SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Activity
Non-Oil Growth Outlook Intact, But Increased Risks
Despite falling oil prices, headline economic growth in Angola will continue to be supported by the non-oil economy and we predict that real GDP growth will expand by 5.0% in 2015 and 5.2% in 2016. That said, risks to growth have increased significantly.
  Table: Economic Activity
Balance Of Payments
C/A Heading Into Deficit In 2015
Falling oil prices have caused Angola's external account picture to deteriorate significantly. We now expect the country's current account balance to flip into deficit in 2015 and remain in the red thereafter.
Monetary Policy
Currency Risks Add To Worsening Inflation Outlook
The reduction of fuel subsidies and expansionary government spending will see inflation in Angola rise over the coming quarters, with currency concerns looming large. This trend will prompt the authorities to tighten monetary policy and we are forecasting 50 basis points' worth of further interest rate hikes by end-2015.
Fiscal Policy
Risks To Rise Amid Lower Oil Prices
Angola's heavy reliance on hydrocarbons leaves it highly exposed to falling oil prices that will precipitate further deterioration in its fiscal and external balances. We believe, however, that with careful management there remains adequate fiscal space for the government to maintain its investment-led growth agenda.


The Angolan Economy To 2023
New Priorities, Familiar Challenges
Having averaged double digit rates of real GDP expansion since the end of civil war in 2002, we expect growth in Angola over the next ten years to come at the more moderate, but still robust level of 5.4 % per annum.
  Table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts


Operational Risk Index
Operational Risk
  Table: Operational Risk
Transport Network
  Table: Tra nsport Networ k Ris ks
Economic Openness
  Table: Economic Openness
  Table: Top Five Trade Partners & Product Exports, (USDmn)
  Table: Top Five Trade Partners & Product Imports, (USDmn)


  Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
  Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
Other Key Sectors
  Table: Oil and Gas Sector Key Indicators
  Table: Pharma Sector Key Indicators
  Table: Autos Sector Key Indicators
  Table: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators
  Table: Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators


Global Outlook
Warning Signs Growing
  Table: Global Assumptions
  Table: Developed States , Real GDP Growt H, %
  Table: Emergi ng Mar kets , Real GDP Growth , %
Skip to top

Angola: Country Business Profile 2016 US$ 300.00 Jan, 2016 · 50 pages

Ask Your Question

Angola Business Forecast Report Q1 2015
Company name*:
Contact person*:
Request invoice
Your enquiry:
Please click on a Check Box below to confirm you are not a robot: