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Page 7 of 111
Zimbabwe Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... in the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) adds to existing uncertainty over the future of politics in Zimbabwe once 91-year-old ... lower oil prices. Major Forecast Changes We forecast real GDP in Zimbabwe to reach 1.1% in 2016, following a slip into recession in 2015 at -0.9%. This marks ...

Nov, 2015 43 pages
Zambia Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... and stem inflation without direct intervention in the currency market. Zambia's budget deficit will see a marginal improvement in 2016 as the government ... Hichilema will win the 2016 presidential election in Zambia following the collapse of the country's currency and worsening macroeconomic picture. The Zambian ...

Nov, 2015 37 pages
Vietnam Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... Vietnam's real GDP growth to accelerate to 6.6% in 2016, from an estimated 6.4% in 2015. Despite the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement on October 5 by the 12 countries involved ... of Vietnam (SBV) to loosen its monetary policy. As such, we forecast the central bank to cut its policy rate by 50bps to 6.00% by end-2016. We expect Vietnam ...

Nov, 2015 41 pages
Uganda Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... in revenue collection, see Uganda’s fiscal balance remain deep in the red over the coming years. Upside inflationary risks and a vulnerable shilling will see the Bank of Uganda keep monetary conditions tight through H116 ...

Nov, 2015 37 pages
Tunisia Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... and June 2015 terrorist attacks on Tunisia's Bardo Museum and coastal city of Sousse highlight the country's acute vulnerability to radical Islamist groups ... – to survive the crisis. Fiscal consolidation will proceed at a measured pace in Tunisia over the coming years, as the government's commitment to reform stumbles ...

Nov, 2015 31 pages
Trinidad and Tobago Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... Views Structurally lower crude oil prices will stymie activity in Trinidad & Tobago's energy sector over the coming years, driving a slowdown in headline ... Trinidadian dollar over the coming quarters, resulting in a deterioration of the country's terms of trade and weaker investment inflows. Open market ...

Nov, 2015 37 pages
Taiwan Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... increasing uncertainty in the domestic political situation will continue to weigh on Taiwan's economic growth. As such, we have downgraded our 2015 and 2016 ... the Taiwan dollar competitive. We have also downgraded our 2016 real GDP forecast to 1.9%, from 2.5% previously to reflect ongoing export headwinds. Taiwan's expansionary ...

Nov, 2015 41 pages
Switzerland Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates Core Views Switzerland's growth trajectory over the medium term will be increasingly powered by ... franc will begin to gradually depreciate from overvalued levels. A narrowing of Switzerland's large current account surplus will gather steam in 2016, but ...

Nov, 2015 41 pages
Sri Lanka Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) will likely keep its policy rate on hold over the coming months as it remains hamstrung by the country's rising fiscal ... forecast for Sri Lanka's current account deficit to come in at 3.1% of GDP in 2015, and 3.4% in 2016, versus our previous forecasts of 3.4% and 3.7%, respectively. Sri Lanka's government debt ...

Nov, 2015 39 pages
Spain Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... quarterly updates Core Views Spain's economic growth story will remain relatively strong in 2016. However, elevated political risk (elections, Catalonia) ... by. However, these surpluses will be insufficient in size to materially unwind the country's large net external liability position. A further leg down in ...

Nov, 2015 49 pages
Saudi Arabia Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... updates Core Views The replacement of Saudi Arabia's heir in April 2015, along with other major changes in the country's leadership, represent a further consolidation ... in Saudi Arabia, high youth unemployment coupled with a lack of political liberties mean that tensions will continue to linger. The municipal polls conducted in Saudi Arabia ...

May, 2016 51 pages
Rwanda Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... -friendly structural reforms will see Rwanda’s economy expand rapidly over the coming years. The country’s difficult relationship with its neighbours poses the gravest threat to this forecast; a major international crisis could derail Rwanda’s development ...

Nov, 2015 19 pages
Russia Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... real incomes will prevent a swift recovery in the economy in 2016. Russia will maintain a current account surplus in 2016 and 2017 as imports ... remain sufficient to entirely cover maturing obligations during 2016-2017. Russia's fiscal position is strained and the government is in a difficult position as it strives ...

Nov, 2015 51 pages
Poland Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates Core Views Poland’s robust real GDP growth will continue throughout 2016, driven ... . The sharp drop in oil prices has led to a positive adjustment in Poland’s external accounts, although growing domestic demand will lead the ... sharp drop in oil prices, we have upgraded our forecast for Poland’s current account deficit to just 0.1% of GDP in 2015. We have downgraded our ...

Nov, 2015 41 pages
Norway Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates Core Views A sharp slowdown in hydrocarbons sector investment amid a collapse in global oil prices will weigh on Norwegian GDP growth between 2015-2017. The Norwegian government will continue to expand fiscal policy in order to stimulate demand in the short run and to lay ...

Nov, 2015 23 pages
Nigeria Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates Core Views Nigeria will continue to struggle with its readjustment to low oil prices, ... bank's more unorthodox policies must also be relaxed if growth is to be maintained. Nigeria's current account balance will remain in deficit in 2016, as exports will ...

Nov, 2015 45 pages
Morocco Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... pressure on Morocco's current account and boost the country's attractiveness for foreign investors. This structural evolution will benefit the country's economic growth over the next decade. Average annual inflation in Morocco will pick up to 1.9% in 2015, from ...

Nov, 2015 41 pages
Montenegro & Kosovo Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... of the deal for the foreseeable future. In particular, the status of Kosovo’s Serb-dominated region of Northern Mitrovica will remain a major source ... by the IMF Executive Board in July) is likely to have a destabilising effect on Kosovo’s consumption-driven economic model. While the package, which is predicated ...

Nov, 2015 39 pages
Mongolia Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... return to the country owing to the second phase expansion of the OT copper and gold mine. We forecast that the Bank of Mongolia (BoM) will ... to reduce spending in 2016 as parliamentary elections loom. The country is increasingly at risk of a credit event as Mongolia and its state-linked entities are facing significant ...

Nov, 2015 33 pages
Latvia Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates Core Views Latvia’s economic recovery will continue in 2016, although we emphasise that labour ... embargo on EU agricultural goods has weakened the growth outlook and Latvia will be among the worst EU states affected. Growth will remain ...

Nov, 2015 41 pages
Kazakhstan and Central Asia Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... Core Views Kazakhstan announced an ambitious privatisation programme, which is an important ... .6/USD in 2016, from TMT3.5/USD previously. Central Asia is shaping as a region of growing geopolitical rivalry ... to adopt a moderately more optimistic outlook on the country's medium-to long-term economic development ...

Nov, 2015 65 pages
Iraq Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... and their allies will focus on re-conquering the Anbar province. Iraq will maintain formal unity within a fragile federalised state over ... bank will devalue the Iraqi dinar by 10% in H216, as pressures on the country's foreign exchange reserves and on the government's budget become too ...

Nov, 2015 37 pages
Ghana Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... of the macroeconomic troubles Ghana is undergoing, and the authorities’ determination to bring inflation under control at whatever cost. Ghana’s current account deficit will begin to diminish in 2016, despite ongoing price weakness for the country’s key commodity exports ...

Nov, 2015 39 pages
Germany Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... toward domestic demand is under way. Though it is becoming more balanced, Germany's economy will continue to be characterised by very high net savings rates ... Changes In anticipation of high expenditures to accommodate the large intake of migrants to Germany, we now expect a modest general government budget deficit of 0.1% of GDP in 2016 ...

Nov, 2015 45 pages
Gabon and Republic of Congo Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates Core Views The Republic of Congo will receive a boost to real GDP growth in 2016 due to a surge in ...

Nov, 2015 35 pages
Egypt Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... Egyptian economy, as the currency stabilises and investment returns to the country. The fiscal and net export position will improve significantly ... price inflation back into the double digits by year-end. Egypt’s geopolitical importance will ensure that even if an IMF agreement is delayed ... African country does not experience a more pronounced economic and political crisis. However, it will be donations from the GCC which keeps Egypt ...

Nov, 2015 37 pages
Denmark Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates Core Views Real GDP growth in Denmark will continue to be supported by a steady improvement in external demand, mainly from ... We have revised upward our real GDP growth forecast for Denmark to 1.7% in 2016 (from 1.6%), as continued improvement in the external economic landscape and ...

Nov, 2015 19 pages
Cuba, Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... will drive robust real GDP growth rates in the Dominican Republic in the coming years. Puerto Rico to remain in a recession through 2015 amid high ... missed debt servicing payment by the Public Finance Corporation. Reforms in Cuba are headed in a positive direction, and investor interest is on the rise ...

Nov, 2015 51 pages
Bulgaria Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... growth driver as Bulgaria remains unable to attract foreign investment, which has bolstered GDP growth in the past. We forecasting Bulgaria’s budget deficit to remain ... peers. Bulgaria will generate a trade surplus in future due to higher eurozone demand and a growing influx of international tourists. By 2016 Bulgaria’s price levels ...

Nov, 2015 43 pages
Bosnia-Herzegovina Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... and complex governing structures combine to make Bosnia-Herzegovina's political system largely dysfunctional. ... last year's elections, we expect the country to muddle through in the coming years, ... done little to address structural problems. Political risks and business environment deficiencies will continue ...

Nov, 2015 41 pages
Barbados, Guyana and Jamaica Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... region's mining-driven economies than in its predominantly tourism-driven countries. Caribbean economies will continue to face economic headwinds in the coming ... Forecast Changes Whereas we had originally anticipated that the Bank of Jamaica would begin a hiking cycle after a reduction of 1,175bps since 2009 ...

May, 2016 55 pages
Bahrain Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... Core Views Weaker government spending will have an adverse impact on Bahrain’s economy, with growth set to slow to 2.9% in real terms in 2016. That ... coming on stream of new industrial projects will help to support growth. Bahrain’s reputation as a stable and welcoming location to do business in the Gulf has ...

Nov, 2015 39 pages
Australia Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... of government spending relative to GDP, a reversal in the country's terms of trade and the growing risk of deflation. These impediments will result in real GDP ... well for the AUD. Australia's fiscal accounts are unlikely to return to a surplus any time soon, given downside risks to revenue collection and ...

Nov, 2015 45 pages
Algeria and Libya Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... the country, we expect FDI inflows to remain sparse in the years ahead. Foreign investors will remain deterred by numerous restrictions and Algeria's weak ... for control over the country's vast resource wealth. A lack of institutional capacity will hamper reconstruction efforts. Libya lacks the institutions ...

Nov, 2015 55 pages
Albania Country Risk Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,195.00

... investment, as the country's business climate improves and easing credit conditions begin to pass through to the real economy Albania's current account will ... funding strains may start to occur as these resources are exhausted. Albania's annual rate of inflation will not reach the central bank ...

May, 2016 45 pages
Sweden Tourism Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,295.00

... Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates BMI View:We expect Sweden to receive a decreasing number of tourists in 2016 and into the medium term. This will ... of a fierce competition from neighbouring countries whose tourism marketing and infrastructure is deemed more adequate than Sweden's. The weak krona, however, will ...

Nov, 2015 25 pages
Nordic Food and Drink Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,295.00

... and offering a favourable business and regulatory environment, the four Nordic markets could offer attractive investment opportunities. That said, ... Moreover, the food and drink markets are highly concentrated, presenting significant challenges for new entrants. Key Forecasts Denmark Food consumption (local ...

Nov, 2015 123 pages
Libya & Tunisia Insurance Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,295.00

... Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates BMI View: The insurance market in Libya remains in the very early stages of development, hampered both by the ... remain weak and vulnerable to any further escalation of the conflict. Tunisia's insurance market, particularly the non life sector, is considerably more established ...

Nov, 2015 61 pages
New Zealand Retail Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,295.00

... 3 FREE quarterly updates BMI View: New Zealand is a highly developed country with a modern and diverse retail market. Stable growth has helped boost ... until 2019; however, 58.2% of spending will still go towards essential items. New Zealand has maintained control over both domestic and regional risks ...

Nov, 2015 71 pages
Bangladesh Autos Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,295.00

... positive year for the Bangladeshi new vehicle sales market in 2016. We are forecasting 15.3% sales growth for the sector as a whole, with ... outperforming commercial vehicles against a strong macroeconomic backdrop. However, for 2016, we are expecting commercial vehicles (+17%) to outperform passenger cars (+13%), as more money ...

Nov, 2015 37 pages
United Kingdom Retail Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,295.00

... to retailers both in terms of economic and political uncertainties and profit margins. The UK's retail sector is extremely mature, with a developed mass grocery retail (MGR) sector and also a high level of online retailing. Over recent years retailers have ...

Nov, 2015 63 pages
South Korea Tourism Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,295.00

... Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates BMI View: South Korea's tourism industry demonstrates significant growth potential. The country boasts numerous ... present outlook for South Korea's tourism industry is highly positive, making this an attractive investment destination. Key Updates and Forecasts South Korea's hotel sector continues ...

Nov, 2015 28 pages
Lebanon Insurance Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,295.00

... segments in Lebanon's insurance sector. The growth in the number of older people will boost demand for healthcare and, therefore, private health insurance. However, price competition will hamper the expansion in property and motor insurance premiums. Life insurers will grow by selling ...

Nov, 2015 46 pages
Chad Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,295.00

... investment in Chad. Throughout our forecast period, Chad will remain a net exporter of petroleum products and will not produce any natural gas. Latest Updates And Key Forecasts Chad's crude ... /d by 2024. Glencore's write down of assets in Chad will negatively impact further developments in the upstream sector. Chad will remain a net exporter of refined ...

Nov, 2015 55 pages
Australia Retail Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,295.00

... in the world and the retail sector is highly saturated, however, the construction boom continues and new retail chains continue entering the ... take place as essentials spending outperform the rest of the retail sub-sectors. Australia does face some significant economic headwinds in 2015. The ...

Nov, 2015 67 pages
Ukraine Metals Report 2016 US$ 1,295.00

... -to-back years of contraction in both production and consumption in the metals sector in the Ukraine in 2013 and 2014, the sector turned a corner last ... back to post a 3.5% y-o-y gain in output and a 3.1% y-o-y increase in use. Going forward, Ukraine's metals sector will see modest growth over our forecast period ...

Nov, 2015 33 pages
Taiwan Metals Report 2016 US$ 1,295.00

... Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates BMI View: Like others globally, Taiwan's metals sector faces mounting challenges over the next few years ... to be moderate through to 2019. Heavily focused on steel, Taiwan boasts one of the best developed metals sectors in the Asia Pacific region. The island ...

Nov, 2015 23 pages
Vietnam Retail Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,295.00

... levels and lots of untapped opportunities make Vietnam one of the most attractive destinations for retailers in South East Asia. That said, in ... (FDI) inflows and export resilience. As such, we forecast Vietnam's real GDP growth to accelerate to 6.6% in 2016, from an estimated 6.4% in 2015.The growth has ...

Oct, 2015 67 pages
New Zealand Insurance Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,295.00

... Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates BMI View: The insurance market in New Zealand is relatively small, by global standards, and a subdued domestic economic outlook ... state-provided retirement schemes is raised. Key Updates And Forecasts New Zealand's life insurance market is underdeveloped but does offer growth potential. At present ...

Oct, 2015 49 pages
Italy Retail Report Q1 2016 US$ 1,295.00

... FREE quarterly updates BMI View:Italy is on track to extend its output growth to 2016 and 2017. Benefitted by favourable conditions in ... GDP growth in Italy in the past decade. However, as the economy strengthens, household spending on retail items is improving. The 1.7% y-o-y increase in retail sales in July ...

Oct, 2015 75 pages
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