Antihypertensives Market to 2016 - Generic Erosion Following Patent Expiry of Major ARBs to Impact the Market

14 Jan 2011 • by Natalie Aster

GBI Research, a leading business intelligence provider, has released its latest research “Antihypertensives Market to 2016 - Generic Erosion Following Patent Expiry of Major ARBs to Impact the Market”. The report provides in-depth analysis of the unmet needs, drivers and barriers that affect the global antihypertensive market. The report analyzes the markets for antihypertensive disorders in the US, the top five markets in Europe (the UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain), and Japan. Treatment usage patterns, sales, prices and volumes are forecast until 2016 for the key geographies as well as the leading therapeutic segments. Furthermore, the report provides competitive benchmarking for the leading companies and analyzes the mergers, acquisitions and licensing agreements that shape the global markets.

It is built using data and information sourced from proprietary databases, primary and secondary research and in-house analysis by GBI Research’s team of industry experts.

In 2009, the global anti-hypertensive market was estimated to be worth $27.2 billion, representing a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.0% between 2002 and 2009. The market is forecast to reach $30 billion by 2016, indicating a CAGR of 1.5% between 2009 and 2016. The primary reason for slight and gradual growth in the market is the patent expiries of major blockbusters, which are expected to decrease the annual cost of therapy after 2007.

The global anti-hypertensive market is expected to witness a series of patent expiries between 2007 and 2015, which includes most of the top selling blockbuster drugs in the anti-hypertensive market. The major drugs that are set to lose patent protection include Novartis’s Diovan (2012), Sanofi Aventis’s Avapro (2012), Novartis’s Exforge (2012), Takeda/AstraZeneca’s Blopress/Atacand (2012), Pfizer’s Revatio (2012), Actelion’s Tracleer (2015), and United Therapeutics Remodulin (2014). All these drugs together accounted for more than $19.4 billion in revenues in 2009. Merck’s Cozaar patent expired in April 2010. The sales of Cozaar for the year 2009 were $3.6 billion. Pfizer’s Norvasc, which was once the world’s most prescribed drug for hypertension and angina, saw a sales decline of 12% in 2009 due to genericization in 2007. Thus, the series of upcoming patent expiries in the hypertension as well as PAH markets are set to lead to a decline in the market in the near future. However, due to increased usage of fixed dose-combinations and the entry of generics, the market is expected to rise slightly after 2015.

The current anti-hypertensive pipeline does offer some promising novel products, such as SPP635, Actos, LCZ696, QT1571, ACT-293987, PS-433540, Macitentan and Riociguat, indicated for the treatment of hypertension and PAH. However, the revenues generated from these products are not expected to completely make up for the revenue losses due to patent expiries. Thus, the overall global anti-hypertensive market is expected to show flat growth during the forecast period.

The current global anti-hypertensive market is significantly consolidated as the top six players control approximately 74% of the market. Novartis is the current market leader with its blockbuster product, Diovan. It is available in more than 100 countries. It has recorded sales of six billion in 2009. Other major products in the anti-hypertensive market of Novartis are Exforge, Tekturna/Rasilez, Lotrel and Lescol, controlling 43% of the total anti-hypertensive market. Merck follows Novartis with a 19% market share, primarily due to its top selling ARB, Cozaar. The sales of Cozaar are set to decline in the future as the patent on Cozaar expired in April 2010. Pfizer occupies the third position with its blockbuster drug Norvasc. Pfizer also marks its presence in the PAH market with its Revatio. Norvasc went off-patent in the year 2007. It was one of the blockbuster drugs in the anti-hypertensive market until this date. Takeda is the fourth player in the anti-hypertensive market, with its blockbuster drug Blopress. The sales of Blopress are set to increase in the coming years. Takeda is followed by Actelion and Sanofi Aventis. Actelion is the market leader in PAH with its blockbuster drugs, Tracleer and Ventavis. Actelion and Sanofi Aventis control 8% and 7% of the total market.

However, the market shares of the total players are expected to witness changes in the near future due to upcoming patent expiries. Novartis’s Diovan and Tekturna/Rasilez are set to expire in 2012. Exforge is set to expire in 2010. Merck’s Cozaar went off-patent in the year 2010. Merck and Pfizer have been registering negative growth in recent years due to patent expiries. Novartis, Takeda and Actelion have shown positive growth.

The anti-hypertensive drug category was the largest selling subcategory of the cardiovascular market in 2009. Novartis is the market leader in the anti-hypertensive market, with a large number of marketed products. Key products of Novartis include Diovan, Exforge, Tekturna/Rasilez, Lotrel and Lescol. Takeda’s Blopress is also a key product in the anti-hypertensive market, registering increased sales. Pfizer’s Norvasc was the market leader until 2007. Norvasc went off-patent in 2007, giving a major share of the market to Novartis’s Diovan and Merck’s Cozaar. With Cozaar, the first ARB to lose patent in April 2010, Novartis will be the market leader in the anti-hypertensive market. Novartis’s Diovan is set to lose patent in 2012. Novartis is trying to position Tekturna to be the lead drug for hypertension as Diovan is set to lose patent protection in 2012. Sanofi Aventis’s Avapro is also one of the leading drugs in the anti-hypertensive market, registering high sales over the years. It is also expected to go off-patent in the year 2012. Actelion’s Tracleer, the most prescribed PAH therapy in the world, is also set to expire in the year 2015. Thus Novartis, with a large number of blockbuster products, will lead the anti-hypertensive market.