Global Mobile Market Outlook: 2009 – 201422 Oct 2010 • by Natalie Aster
London - In Eastern Europe, Hungary and the Ukraine are also expected to report declining connections in 2009, with growth in Poland just 0.8%. Again, the recession has resulted in a reduction in connections. However, as in Italy, they expect this to be an isolated contraction, with growth returning in 2010 and throughout the rest of the period.
In both Western and Eastern Europe the forecasts throughout the period have been revised downwards to reflect the more conservative end-user environment of 2009. In Western Europe they now estimate 1.8% fewer connections in 2009 (522 million) than previously. By 2014, the latest forecasts show 572.8 million connections in 2014, 4.1% lower than our previous numbers.
In Eastern Europe the story is similar, but less dramatic as recessionary adjustments had already been factored into previous forecasts. Eastern European connections are predicted to grow from 433.1 million in 2009 (0.7% lower than previously forecast) to 490 million in 2014 (2.2% lower than earlier estimates).
It is important to note that in both parts of Europe connections are still forecast to grow during the coming 5 years. In Western Europe, the CAGR is 2% between 2009 and 2014 (the lowest growth among all the regions), while in Eastern Europe it is 2.5%.
The report “Global Mobile Market Outlook: 2009 – 2014” provides Ovum’s perspective on the market trends that will shape the mobile industry to 2014.
Published: Feb, 2010
Price: USD 2495
Sample Abstract on Regulatory trends from the report:
Spectrum to become increasingly important over the next five years. Spectrum issues will receive renewed impetus over the next five years. Spectrum suitable for LTE will be awarded in increasing regularity throughout the period as more markets launch the technology. This will coincide with the ongoing discussions around spectrum re-farming and the digital dividend. At the same time many 2G licences in developed markets are coming up for renewal over the next 5 years. Finally, there will be increasing numbers of 3G spectrum awards in emerging markets. Despite this, demand for additional spectrum will still be high, particularly in the lower end of the spectrum band. Regulators are likely to focus their attention on that spectrum, which has traditionally been held by broadcasters and the military.
LTE brings new spectrum allocation and issues dealing with the old. The award of spectrum suitable for LTE will most likely focus on the most advanced markets in Western Europe and Asia-Pacific over the next two to three years. Thereafter, we expect the growing installed base to make the economics of LTE more appealing to a wider array of markets...
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