Solar Thermal Power Market Forecast to 2020 - Utilities to Drive Future Developments in the Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Market19 Jul 2010 • by Natalie Aster
The report provides in-depth analysis of the global solar thermal market and provides forecast estimates up to 2020. The research analyzes the key trends, major issues and growth opportunities in the global solar thermal market. The report contains in depth analysis of the key countries and provides forecast estimates up to 2020. The research analyzes the key trends, drivers, major issues and growth opportunities in the key countries. The report also gives insights on market development of solar thermal in emerging markets. The report provides detailed analysis on the technology trends and cost break up for solar thermal. Information on the regulatory framework and key policies governing the industry has also been dealt with in detail. Elaborate profiling of major industry participants coupled with detailed analysis of important news and deals provide a comprehensive understanding of the global solar thermal market.
Green Stimulus: A Crucial Support to Renewable Energy
Global carbon emissions have become a central focus of developed nations in attaining the twin goals of energy security and sustainability. In order to achieve this twin target of security and sustainability, there is an acute need to produce energy from the sustainable sources such as wind, solar, geothermal and biomass.
The global financial crisis has provided opportunities to governments to move forward in altering the present energy generation mix. The financial stimulus packages announced by the major developed nations have allotted almost $512 billion to green energy. On the basis of announced stimulus packages to 31st March 2009, the observation can be drawn that the Asian nations, especially China, have contributed the most to the green energy projects. South Korea has allotted the maximum amount to the green energy, followed by China.
Global Solar Thermal Market – Impressive Growth in Installations from 2010 Onward
Global Solar Thermal market was concentrated in the US only till Spain joined in 2007. Since 2007, the sector has broadened its geographical reach and Australia and Morocco has also started the solar thermal plants. Due to the high energy efficiency, the technology is gathering the interest of the other nations with the planned projects coming online from 2010.
Global solar thermal cumulative installed capacity has grown from 354 MW (Megawatts) in 2001 to 697 MW in 2009 at a CAGR of 9% per annum. However, the planned projects that are coming online from 2010 onwards are anticipated to accelerate the CAGR to 46% per annum during 2010 to 2020. In 2020, the solar thermal power capacity is expected to reach at 122,252 MW from 2,715 MW in 2010.
The annual installations capacity is expected to witness a big surge in the coming decade, primarily due to the significant capacity additions in the US and Spain. Additionally, the capacity addition will be supported, as many other countries like Australia, China, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Algeria and Italy are coming up with the CSP (Concentrated Solar Power) projects.
The US Solar Thermal Market – Large Scale Projects to Boost Installed Capacity
The US solar thermal market grew at a CAGR of 2% per annum from 2001 to 2009. However, the government encouragement for the sector is expected to lift CAGR to astonishing levels of 46% per annum for the period 2010 to 2020. The installations are expected to pick up pace as high capacity plants come online during the period.
California is expected to lead the CSP installations with almost nine projects with a capacity of more than 500 MW expected to come online during the period of which one project is having capacity of 1,000 MW. The sector growth will continue to be robust till 2020 as the RPS (Renewable Portfolio Standards) targets for the states will continue encouraging solar thermal power generation in the country.
Utilities Owned Projects – A Strategic Driver of CSP Installations
The utilities in the US are on a new endeavor that will act as a catalyst for the Solar Thermal Market installations. The utilities are considering the option to establish own solar thermal facility with grid connectivity in order to lure benefit of the extended ITC to the industry and hedging volatile energy prices scenario. Unlike Solar PV system, Solar Thermal technology has higher efficiency and higher potential to generate the base load power provided sufficient back up and storage facility.
During 2009, installations on the Utility side of the meter grew more than two and half time from the previous year. In 2008, the utilities side of meter was around 18 MW that reached to 65MW in 2009. By 2016 an estimated 16 GW plants are anticipated to come in service largely supported by the large scale installations and extension of PTC and ITC to the solar sector.
Spanish Solar Thermal Market – Envisions Bright Future through 2020
With the strong government backing to the CSP technology, the installed capacity is expected to leap during 2010 to 2020. The CSP installations are expected to cumulate at 44,515 MW in 2020 from 891 MW in 2010.
In 2010, the installed capacity is expected to increase more than three and half times as almost 13 50 MW projects are expected to be operated in the country. By 2011, the installations are expected to double from the levels of 2010, largely contributed by the installations of almost 27 50 MW plants.
Despite the regulatory cap on installations and the registry system in the country, installations are expected to surge, largely due to favorable feed-in tariffs. In light of the ambitious plans of the Spanish government to adhere to EU 2020 agenda, the Spanish CSP sector envisions bright future.
Asia and the Middle East – Future Hot Spots for CSP Market
The cumulative installation capacity in the hotspot destinations for the solar thermal market is anticipated to reach nearly 9,000 GWh, representing 7% of the global installed capacity in 2020. Among the destinations, the highest share (on a global basis) will be occupied by Australia (2.73%), UAE (1.69%), India (0.98%) and China (0.82%). By 2020, the overall cumulative installed capacity in these nations is projected to increase at a CAGR of 37% per annum from 2010 to 2020.
With the increase in the installations the power generation from the CSP technology in the emerging destinations is expected to grow at a CAGR of 42% during 2010 to 2020. The power generation in 2020 is expected to total at 35,096 GWh in these nations up from 1,035 MW in 2010.
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