Neutropenia - Drug Pipeline Analysis and Market Forecasts to 2016

15 Jun 2010 • by Natalie Aster

GlobalData, the industry analysis specialist, has released a new report, “Neutropenia - Drug Pipeline Analysis and Market Forecasts to 2016”. The report is an essential source of information and analysis on the global neutropenia market. The report identifies the key trends shaping and driving the global neutropenia market. The report also provides insights into the prevalent competitive landscape and the emerging players expected to cause significant shifts in the positioning of the existing market leaders. Most importantly, the report provides valuable insight into the pipeline products within the global neutropenia sector.

Neutropenia Therapeutics Market Forecasts to Moderate Growth Until 2016

GlobalData estimated that the global neutropenia market was valued at $6.4 billion in 2009 and forecasts it to grow by 4% annually for the next seven years. The growth rate of this market from 2001-2009 was 6%. This lower growth rate between the years 2009-2016 as compared to the year 2001-2009 is because of the expiry of the patents for Neulasta (pegfilgrastim) and Neupogen (filgrastim). Their patent will expire in the years 2015 and 2013 respectively. As a result, the market will shrink to some extent and then grow to $8.6 billion in 2016. The market will decline in the years 2015-2016 from $8.7 billion to $8.6 billion because of the expiry of the patent of biggest selling drug Neulasta. The growth in the market will be mainly due to the increase in the prevalence rate of this disease, which is in turn is accelerated by the increasing prevalence rates of other diseases such as cancer and cardiovascular disorders.

In addition to this, there is scarcity of pipeline molecules in neutropenia market. Although there are a few blockbuster drugs in this pipeline, they will also be incapable of getting the same growth rate as Neulasta and Neupogen have. There will also be the introduction of biosimilars and generics in future that will add to this problem. Hence, in the coming years the growth rate of this market will slump. Combining the effect of all the three factors, the high prevalence rate, the introduction of biosimilars and the scarce pipeline, it can be said that the market will have moderate growth rate in the coming years.

Current Market is successful in Meeting Half of the Existing Market Need

GlobalData found that the existing drugs are moderately serving neutropenia market. The current competition in this market is strong and due to the fact that the currently marketed products are expensive, there remains a moderate level of unmet need in this market. In 2009, the unmet need was approximately 50% of the current market demand. Although the currently marketed and off-label products possess moderate safety and moderate to high efficacy profiles, they lack novel mechanisms of action to treat this disease. Most of the currently used products belong to the class of granulocyte colony stimulating factors (G-CSFs). There are no other classes of products that are used to treat this disease. This creates an unmet need of $3.2 billion in this market. This also creates a market potential for new entrants that can take advantage of this scenario by introducing products that are novel in their mechanism as well as cheaper than the existing products. However, due to the tough competition posed by the currently marketed players, it can be difficult for new entrants to survive. The competition will be further intensified by the introduction of biosimilars, which are present in the pipeline. In order to serve this market successfully, the companies need to treat this disease with products that are more efficacious and safer than the existing products.

Competition in Neutropenia Market Will Remain Strong

According to GlobalData, Amgen is the market leader in the neutropenia market both in terms of product dominance and market share. The other noticeable player in this market is Bayer Inc. These two players cover almost the whole neutropenia market, making it hard for other companies to enter. Approximately 50% of the market is covered by Neulasta and 24% by Neupogen. Both these drugs are marketed by Amgen. However, there are many more companies that might enter this market in the coming years. Among them are Pfizer and Teva Pharmaceuticals, who may pose the most threat to Amgen. The ease of making biosimilars to a drug makes the dynamics of this market even more composite. Because of this ease, the market will witness introduction of many biosimilars in coming years. With the expiry of the patents for Neulasta and Neupogen, and with the introduction of biosimilars like Neugranin, the competition in this market will be intensified. However, Neulasta has the capability to pose a threat to new entrants. With the confirmation of the weekly dose of Neulasta, the supportive care market for neutropenia will be dominated by this drug. The only competition then will come from the pricing of these drugs. Since biosimilars are cheaper than Neulasta and Neupogen therapy, they could present a challenge.

Pipeline Raises a Good Hope to Neutropenia Treatment Paradigm

GlobalData’s analysis shows that the pipeline for the neutropenia market is strong, consisting of few upcoming blockbuster drugs. However, the number of blockbuster drugs is not sufficient enough to beat the existing market players. The pipeline consists of only four high potential molecules that can be considered as blockbuster drugs in future. The pipeline lacks a large number of molecules that can treat this disease with novel mechanisms of action. In the pipeline, some of the molecules are biosimilars and already use G-CSFs. The pipeline is strong. It has few potential molecules that makes it strong. There are only 13 molecules in the pipeline for this disease and that explains the low interest of the companies to enter this market. There are four first-in-class molecules with six me-too molecules. Thus, only a few new drugs will enter the market with novel mechanisms of action, alongside some combinations and a large number of me-too products in the coming years. Thus, while the pipeline will provide more promising molecules for the market, it will fail to ensure a shift in the treatment paradigm for this disease.

Weak Pipeline Candidates Will Play Moderate Role in Intensifying Future Competition

GlobalData found that there are 13 molecules in different developmental stages in the pipeline of neutropenia. Linezolid, Vancomycin and Voriconazole are key products in Phase III and Neugranin, Maxy-G34 are key products in Phase II of the development stage in the pipeline of neutropenia. These late stage pipeline products include D-alanyl-D-alanine binders, fungal cytochrome P-450 inhibitors, G-CSF binders and bone marrow stimulators. If successfully launched, these products are expected to meet physicians’ expectations. These pipeline molecules have the potential to become blockbuster drugs and will prove promising for the growth of neutropenia market. However, the presence of few pipeline molecules will make the pipeline insufficient to pose considerable market competition to the existing market players.