Hepatitis B - Drug Pipeline Analysis and Market Forecasts to 201602 Jun 2010 • by Natalie Aster
GlobalData, the industry analysis specialist’s new report, “Hepatitis B - Drug Pipeline Analysis and Market Forecasts to 2016” is an essential source of information and analysis on the global Hepatitis B market (Hep B). The report identifies the key trends shaping and driving the market, and provides insight into the competitive landscape and the emerging players expected to bring a significant shift in the market positioning of the existing market leaders. Most importantly, the report provides valuable insight into the pipeline products within the Hep B sector.
The Hepatitis B Market is Forecast to Show Slow Growth Until 2016
GlobalData estiimates the Hep B therapeutics market to be valued at $879m in 2009. The market is estimated to grow up to $993m in 2016, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.8%. Growth in the Hep B market will be driven by the increase in the number of patients. The US is the largest market for Hep B and it contributes to approximately 50% of the global market.
The Hepatitis B Market Growth is Driven by Increasing Number of Patients
There are more than 20 million people who are infected with Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) and 3.5 million of these have developed chronic infection. Although the incidence of acute Hep B is decreasing with the current vaccination program, people who already have this infection are at risk of developing chronic HBV infection with increasing age. In addition, HBV is easily transmitted by the carrier to any uninfected person. The groups who are at increasing risk of the disease include healthcare and public safety workers, sexually active people, and people with end-stage kidney disease. The rate of these groups seeking vaccination against HBV is low. Hence both the number of people infected with HBV and the therapeutic market for the disease are expected to increase.
The Hepatitis B Market has low Unmet Need
The current Hep B market is dominated by the anti-viral therapies. GlobalData analysis revealed that the current unmet need in the Hep B market is approximately 25%. The currently marketed products are moderate to high in terms of both safety and efficacy. However, they do not provide a cure for the disease, and are only meant to prevent the disease progression. The value of the unmet need in 2009 was calculated to be $220m. This could be captured by novel molecules, targeted to fulfill the current void left by the existing treatment options, mainly the development of anti-viral resistance. Thus the Hep B market has high potential for further research and development (R&D) activities and to change the current standard of treatment.
The Hepatitis B Market is set to be Catered by Generic Molecules
The present Hep B market is dominated by antiviral drugs with a single generic drug, Epivir (lamuvidine), while the remaining patent drugs will be losing their exclusivity protection over the next two years (entecavir in in 2010, tenofovir in 2011, telbivudine in 2011 and adefovir in 2010). Newer drugs in the developmental pipeline have similar characteristics to the existing therapies, with similar safety and efficacy profiles. As a result of the absence of innovative products in the developmental pipeline and the loss of exclusivity among the existing therapies, the Hep B market is set to be dominated by generic molecules over the next few years.
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