The Future of HIV Therapeutics - Market Forecasts to 2015, Competitive Benchmarking, Product Pipeline and Deals Analysis

03 Jun 2010 • by Natalie Aster

GBI Research, the leading business intelligence provider, has released its latest research “The Future of HIV Therapeutics - Market Forecasts to 2015, Competitive Benchmarking, Product Pipeline and Deals Analysis.” The report provides in-depth analysis of unmet needs, drivers and barriers that impact the global HIV therapeutics market. The report analyzes the markets for HIV therapeutics in the US, the top five countries in Europe (the UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain) and Japan. Treatment usage patterns, sales, price and volume are forecast until 2015 for the key geographies. Further, the report provides competitive benchmarking for the leading companies and also analyzes the mergers, acquisitions and licensing agreements that shape the global market.

The HIV Market will Grow Moderately Driven Decreased Mortality and Increased Usage; Growth Will be Impacted by Patent Expiries

The HIV market is growing moderately and is dominated by the US. The growth rate is likely to decline from 2012 onwards due to the impact of patent expiry of key drugs. However, migration to new branded drugs is likely to minimize the impact of generics, which currently account for approximately 7.8% of the market.

The global HIV therapeutics market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.7% from $10.8 billion in 2008 to $13.9 billion in 2015. This growth will be driven by increase in prescription rate and increased usage of newer drugs such as Atripla as part of Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART) HAART involves taking different classes of drugs together as a therapy. The HIV market is growing at a slower rate than in previous years. This is primarily due to the patent expiry of major drugs such as Sustiva and Combivir in 2012. However the impact of patent expiration will be offset by the increased usage of newer drugs which are more effective in tackling the progression of the disease. Approximately 1.5 million people infected with HIV received antiretroviral treatment (ART) in 2008 which will increase at a 6% CAGR during 2008-2015. In addition, the average annual cost of therapy for ART is forecast to increase at a higher rate over the next three years with an expected price decline from 2012 onwards due to a series of patent expirations. However, the impact of patent expiry is likely to reduce in 2015.The late stage pipeline drugs such as Rilpivirine by Tibotec Pharmaceuticals and Vicriviroc by Schering-Plough are expected to enter market later in the 2008–2015 period and will positively impact the market. As a result, the HIV market value is going to see a moderate increase over the time period 2008-2015. The US is the largest HIV market among the top countries covered. It accounts for approximately 70% of the total market and is followed by Europe which comprises the UK, France, Italy, Spain, and Germany. Japan accounts for approximately 1% of the market and will experience the highest growth in the geographies studied. This growth in the Japanese HIV markets will be driven by an increase in the number of people affected by the virus and the number of people getting diagnosed and subsequently starting treatment. Currently Japan has very low prevalence levels.

The Unmet Need for a Cost Effective Cure is Unlikely to be Fulfilled in the Coming Years

The HIV market needs drugs which are cost effective and can cure the disease. The market has more than 30 approved products for the treatment of HIV and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS). However, despite that, the HIV market has high unmet need in terms of drug efficacy as none of the current drugs provide a cure for the infection. All classes of drugs are relatively high on safety but low on efficacy. This is because there is no cure for the infection in the market. However some new combination drugs have improved the efficacy in terms of lowering HIV levels in body. Therefore drugs compete on efficacy in terms of delaying progression of the disease and combinations of drugs are considered much better in this regard. The HIV drugs in market are considered safe as the side effects associated with HIV drugs are minimal when compared to the effects of the infections progression. The disease is fatal and is associated with many opportunistic infections which decrease the quality of life of the patient. Therefore, a few side effects of some antiretroviral drugs are considered relatively safe. The pipeline for HIV drugs is non-innovative with drugs in development which are similar to the drugs present in the market. However a few relatively newer classes of drugs in development can help in tackling the problem of resistance building. Therefore, while the unmet need in the HIV market will continue to be in place some newer drugs may offer better treatment for resistance HIV or will have better efficacy in terms of lower dosage frequencies to improve patient compliance, thus improving treatment quality.

The HIV Therapeutics Market is Concentrated with the Top Three Companies Contributing Approximately 66% Market Share

The top five companies account for approximately 82% of the worldwide HIV therapeutics market. These companies also maintain leadership in the seven countries covered. Generics play a minor role in the market allowing branded drugs to take the major shares. The competitive landscape of the HIV therapeutics market is also changing with the introduction of newer cross class combination drugs. The success of recent drug launches has helped Gilead to take the leading position in the market from GlaxoSmithKline which was the market leader until 2006. Gilead will continue to lead the market in the 2008–2015 period due to strong products which have growth potential and the lack of many late stage promising drugs in the industry pipeline. The entry of any new drugs from competitors towards the end of the 2008–2015 period can impact its leadership position. Gilead is followed by GlaxoSmithKline and Bristol Myers Squibb which together hold about 37% of the market. In 2008, Truvada was the leading HIV therapy brand with an approximate global sales value of $2.1 billion, followed by Atripla which recorded sales value of $1.6 billion globally.

Market Participants in the HIV market Have Formed Strategic Agreements to Strengthen Market Position

The HIV market has been moderately active since 2008. The market participants formed strategic partnerships and entered into licensing activities in order to improve their market position. The consolidated market and the dominance of single player in the market resulted in major merger and acquisition activity where GlaxoSmithKline, the second largest HIV player, and Pfizer, the largest pharmaceutical company, merged their HIV businesses. The new company focuses only on HIV to compete better with Gilead which has recently become the market leader. The largest HIV market, the US, was the most active in mergers and acquisition (M&A) and licensing activities. Licensing activities accounted for about 62% of all deals in the market followed by research collaboration with academic and other institutions which accounted for approximately 19% of the total market deals. As the market is highly consolidated only a few M&A activities took place which accounted for 13% of total deal activity in the market. The competitive HIV market will experience collaboration and increased M&A activities even as companies look to strengthen their market positions.

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