Netherlands Telecommunications Report Q1 2012
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI’s Q112 update to the Netherlands Telecoms Report contains extended forecasts through to 2016 for the mobile, fixed-line and broadband subscriber markets, as well as for mobile monthly blended ARPU.
The report on the Netherlands telecommunications market provides a comprehensive overview of the latest trends and the developments that have occurred within the country’s mobile, fixed-line telephony, and internet sectors. This quarter sees only minor changes to our forecasts, with our assumptions about the underlying trends impacting the market over the medium term unchanged. We have, however, made minor changes on the basis of regulatory data that cover the period to the end of June 2011, as well as operator data for the mobile, fixed-line and broadband markets for the period to the end of September 2011. Our new forecast for the mobile market incorporates the latest subscriber data, published by the country’s three largest operators, KPN, Vodafone and T-Mobile, for Q311. Our new wireline forecasts incorporate data from OPTA, and from leading wireline operators such as KPN, UPC and Zesko Holding (Ziggo), T-Mobile and Tele2.
Strong growth in the mobile market continued in Q311, although performance dipped from the 2.2% growth in Q211 to 1.4% q-o-q growth, taking penetration to over 120% at the end of September 2011. In addition to achieving a fast rate of growth, the Netherlands market has seen a high quality of subscriber, with 7.2% y-o-y growth in postpaid subscriptions to Q311, compared to 1.4% y-o-y growth in prepaid subscriptions. For 2011 as a whole, we now predict full-year growth of just over 5.8%.
The key recent developments in the mobile sector were the actual and potential changes to the dynamics of competition. On one hand, led by KPN, mobile operators moved away from unlimited data tariffs and raised prices for mobile services in the wake of the passing of strict net neutrality legislation. The market will also be impacted by the September 2011 announcement that the Dutch government was looking to reserve one-third of new wireless spectrum for new market entrants. The government plans to auction off a number of blocks of spectrum in 2012, including frequencies in the 800MHz band suitable for 4G mobile data services. The state’s move to ring fence a significant portion of the spectrum on offer is welcomed by the likes of Tele2 and local cable broadband operators – Ziggo and Liberty Global Inc’s UPC – but has reportedly angered Dutch incumbent operator KPN, which is said to be considering a legal challenge against the government’s plan. Tele2 Netherlands has already expressed an interest in bidding for 800MHz spectrum, which it sees as a way of providing 4G services based on LTE services, in competition against the established mobile network operators.
The most recent data from the regulator OPTA show that the Dutch broadband market had almost 6.4mn fixed connections at the end of June 2011 with a further 768,000 dedicated mobile broadband subscriptions, slightly lower than we had expected in our previous forecast. By the end of 2011, BMI now expects the Netherlands to have almost 7.3mn broadband connections, reflecting full-year growth of 3.4%, a minor downgrade from our earlier forecast, as mobile broadband growth failed to substitute for plateauing growth in fixed subscriptions as penetration approached 40%.
The Netherlands maintained third position in BMI’s latest set of Risk/Reward Ratings for Western Europe, and saw its score rise, embedding its position and its lead over fourth place. However, due to the smaller size of its market, it continues to trail regional leaders the UK and France. This quarter sees the country’s Telecoms Rating increase from 67 to 68.1, an increase that is largely due to a stronger performance in the Industry Rewards category. The Netherlands continues to score above the regional average in all the categories evaluated by BMI.
BMI’s Q112 update to the Netherlands Telecoms Report contains extended forecasts through to 2016 for the mobile, fixed-line and broadband subscriber markets, as well as for mobile monthly blended ARPU.
The report on the Netherlands telecommunications market provides a comprehensive overview of the latest trends and the developments that have occurred within the country’s mobile, fixed-line telephony, and internet sectors. This quarter sees only minor changes to our forecasts, with our assumptions about the underlying trends impacting the market over the medium term unchanged. We have, however, made minor changes on the basis of regulatory data that cover the period to the end of June 2011, as well as operator data for the mobile, fixed-line and broadband markets for the period to the end of September 2011. Our new forecast for the mobile market incorporates the latest subscriber data, published by the country’s three largest operators, KPN, Vodafone and T-Mobile, for Q311. Our new wireline forecasts incorporate data from OPTA, and from leading wireline operators such as KPN, UPC and Zesko Holding (Ziggo), T-Mobile and Tele2.
Strong growth in the mobile market continued in Q311, although performance dipped from the 2.2% growth in Q211 to 1.4% q-o-q growth, taking penetration to over 120% at the end of September 2011. In addition to achieving a fast rate of growth, the Netherlands market has seen a high quality of subscriber, with 7.2% y-o-y growth in postpaid subscriptions to Q311, compared to 1.4% y-o-y growth in prepaid subscriptions. For 2011 as a whole, we now predict full-year growth of just over 5.8%.
The key recent developments in the mobile sector were the actual and potential changes to the dynamics of competition. On one hand, led by KPN, mobile operators moved away from unlimited data tariffs and raised prices for mobile services in the wake of the passing of strict net neutrality legislation. The market will also be impacted by the September 2011 announcement that the Dutch government was looking to reserve one-third of new wireless spectrum for new market entrants. The government plans to auction off a number of blocks of spectrum in 2012, including frequencies in the 800MHz band suitable for 4G mobile data services. The state’s move to ring fence a significant portion of the spectrum on offer is welcomed by the likes of Tele2 and local cable broadband operators – Ziggo and Liberty Global Inc’s UPC – but has reportedly angered Dutch incumbent operator KPN, which is said to be considering a legal challenge against the government’s plan. Tele2 Netherlands has already expressed an interest in bidding for 800MHz spectrum, which it sees as a way of providing 4G services based on LTE services, in competition against the established mobile network operators.
The most recent data from the regulator OPTA show that the Dutch broadband market had almost 6.4mn fixed connections at the end of June 2011 with a further 768,000 dedicated mobile broadband subscriptions, slightly lower than we had expected in our previous forecast. By the end of 2011, BMI now expects the Netherlands to have almost 7.3mn broadband connections, reflecting full-year growth of 3.4%, a minor downgrade from our earlier forecast, as mobile broadband growth failed to substitute for plateauing growth in fixed subscriptions as penetration approached 40%.
The Netherlands maintained third position in BMI’s latest set of Risk/Reward Ratings for Western Europe, and saw its score rise, embedding its position and its lead over fourth place. However, due to the smaller size of its market, it continues to trail regional leaders the UK and France. This quarter sees the country’s Telecoms Rating increase from 67 to 68.1, an increase that is largely due to a stronger performance in the Industry Rewards category. The Netherlands continues to score above the regional average in all the categories evaluated by BMI.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
Netherlands Mobile Industry SWOT
Netherlands Wireline Industry SWOT
Netherlands Political SWOT
Netherlands Economic SWOT
Netherlands Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment
Table: Western Europe Business Environment Ratings, Q112
Netherlands
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts
Mobile ARPU
Table: Telecoms Sector – ARPU (EUR) – Historical Data & Forecasts
Fixed Line
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts
Internet
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts
Market Data Analysis
Mobile
Table: Netherlands Mobile Subscribers Q310-Q311 (‘000)
Table: Subscriber Net Additions, Q310-Q311 (‘000)
Customer Divisions
Table: Subscriber Mix, Q310-Q311 (‘000)
ARPU
MVNOs
Mobile Internet
Mobile Contract Wins
Table: Mobile Contract Wins
Mobile Operator Data
Table: Market Overview
Table: KPN
Table: T-Mobile
Table: Vodafone
Mobile Content
Industry Trends And Developments - Software And Content To Drive Revenues
Smart Meter Race Is On
Country Outlook
Value-Added Services Timeline
Table: Selected VAS Services
Fixed Line
Internet
Table: Netherlands Retail Broadband Connections By Technology (‘000)
FTTH
IPTV
WiMAX
Long-term Evolution (LTE)
Table: Wireline developments
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments
Netherlands: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Overview
Legislation
Market Analyses
Interconnection And Access
Market Development
Regulatory Developments
Competitive Landscape
Market Overview
Key Players
Table: Key Players: Netherlands Telecoms Sector
Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators, 2005-2010
Company Monitor
Company News Alert - Security and Machines - Gemalto Product Portfolio Ready For The Future
Table: Recent Contracts
Company Profile
Royal KPN NV
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Fixed Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Internet
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Country Snapshot: Netherlands Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2000-2005
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Ratings Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Indicators Skip to top