Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI View: Japan’s telecommunications market has played a key role in driving economic growth by equipping consumers and businesses with a comprehensive network of fixed-line, mobile and broadband services. Although the country is facing an ageing population and limited subscriber growth potential, operators are able to maintain revenue growth through technological advancements as well as the constant introduction of new products and services. 4G, which is starting to gain traction, will play a vital role in the future.
Key Data:
NTT DoCoMo has made the greatest progress with its mass market 4G offering, Xi ('Crossy'), and reportedly added more than 1m subscribers in July 2012 alone, for a total user base in excess of 4mn. We can expect faster adoption rates at the other operators, given that LTE-enabled handsets are more widely available now than they were when Xi launched in late 2010 with growing demand for non-voice services over mobiles, particularly internet search, video downloading/uploading and gaming.
In order to better monetise its mobile data service, NTT DoCoMo has been expanding its VAS portfolio. The latest attempt will see NTT DoCoMo increase its stake in Tower Records Japan from 42.1% to 50.3%. Tower Records Japan gained independence from its now-bankrupt parent Tower Records in 2002, and it is now selling CDs and DVDs through 89 stores in Japan. By turning Tower Records Japan into a subsidiary, NTT DoCoMo aims to integrate its subscriber base of 60mn subscribers and mobile portals with Tower Record Japan's online business.
Japan maintained its top position in BMI’s latest Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings with a Telecoms Rating score of 74.6. The Japanese economy grew at an annualised rate of 1.4% q-o-q in Q212. The sharp deceleration from Q112 was mainly due to the slowdown in consumption growth that contributed a weak 0.3pp in Q212 versus 3.1 pp in Q112. While we have revised our 2012 growth forecast to 1.8% from 1.4% to accommodate the government's upward revision to Q112 growth, we believe that significant headwinds to growth remain and expect 2013 growth to come in weak at 1.2%.
BMI View: Japan’s telecommunications market has played a key role in driving economic growth by equipping consumers and businesses with a comprehensive network of fixed-line, mobile and broadband services. Although the country is facing an ageing population and limited subscriber growth potential, operators are able to maintain revenue growth through technological advancements as well as the constant introduction of new products and services. 4G, which is starting to gain traction, will play a vital role in the future.
Key Data:
- Our 3G subscriber forecasts have been downgraded in light of strong 4G demand and the prospect of remaining operators launching services by end-2012.
- In spite of mobile substitution, there remains a continued demand for fixed-line services. We have upgraded fixed-line forecasts on the back of slowing decline.
- The launch of 4G services is driving growth in the broadband sector. We expect 82mn fixed and mobile broadband subscribers by end-2016.
NTT DoCoMo has made the greatest progress with its mass market 4G offering, Xi ('Crossy'), and reportedly added more than 1m subscribers in July 2012 alone, for a total user base in excess of 4mn. We can expect faster adoption rates at the other operators, given that LTE-enabled handsets are more widely available now than they were when Xi launched in late 2010 with growing demand for non-voice services over mobiles, particularly internet search, video downloading/uploading and gaming.
In order to better monetise its mobile data service, NTT DoCoMo has been expanding its VAS portfolio. The latest attempt will see NTT DoCoMo increase its stake in Tower Records Japan from 42.1% to 50.3%. Tower Records Japan gained independence from its now-bankrupt parent Tower Records in 2002, and it is now selling CDs and DVDs through 89 stores in Japan. By turning Tower Records Japan into a subsidiary, NTT DoCoMo aims to integrate its subscriber base of 60mn subscribers and mobile portals with Tower Record Japan's online business.
Japan maintained its top position in BMI’s latest Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings with a Telecoms Rating score of 74.6. The Japanese economy grew at an annualised rate of 1.4% q-o-q in Q212. The sharp deceleration from Q112 was mainly due to the slowdown in consumption growth that contributed a weak 0.3pp in Q212 versus 3.1 pp in Q112. While we have revised our 2012 growth forecast to 1.8% from 1.4% to accommodate the government's upward revision to Q112 growth, we believe that significant headwinds to growth remain and expect 2013 growth to come in weak at 1.2%.
Executive Summary
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Japan Wireline SWOT
Japan Mobile SWOT
Japan Political SWOT
Japan Economic SWOT
Japan Business Environment
Risk/Reward Ratings
Asia Pacific
Table: Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings Q412
Japan
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile
Table: Mobile – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
ARPU
Table: ARPU – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
Fixed Line
Table: Fixed Line – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
Internet
Table: Internet – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
Market Overview
Mobile
Regional Perspective
Table: Japan Mobile Market Regional Comparisons, 2011
Key Market Developments
Mobile Growth
Market Shares
ARPU
Table: Japanese Blended ARPUs 2010-2012 (JPY)
Table: Japanese Voice ARPUs 2010-2012 (JPY)
Table: Japanese Data ARPUs 2009-2012 (JPY)
Mobile Content/Value-Added Services
Value-Added Services Timeline
Table: Selected VAS Services, 2011-2012
Mobile Operator Data
Table: Japan Market Overview
Table: NTT DoCoMo
Table: KDDI
Table: Softbank Mobile
Table: eAccess
Mobile Content
Regional Outlook
Table: Selected NFC Developments, 2011
Fixed Line
Japan Telecommunications Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page
Table: Selected Fixed-Line Operators’ Subscriber Bases (‘000)
Internet
Table: NTT East And NTT West: ADSL/FTTH ('000)
Table: Number Of Broadband Subscriptions (’000)
Industry Trends And Developments
Networks
Table: 3G Mobile Subscriber Market, June 2012
Table: Market Developments
Regulatory Environment And Industry Developments
Table: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities In Japan
Table: Licence Categories
Table: Notification Categories
Competitive Landscape
Competitor Analysis
Table: Key Players: Japan Telecoms Sector
Table: Selected Operator Revenues 2005-2011 (FY end-March 31 unless stated) (US$mn)
Company Profiles
NTT Corporation
KDDI Corporation
Softbank Corp
Regional Overview
Altobridge: Connecting Remote Communities
Altobridge Commercial Deployments, July 2012
Demographic Outlook
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Japan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Japan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Ratings Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Sources
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Japan Wireline SWOT
Japan Mobile SWOT
Japan Political SWOT
Japan Economic SWOT
Japan Business Environment
Risk/Reward Ratings
Asia Pacific
Table: Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings Q412
Japan
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile
Table: Mobile – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
ARPU
Table: ARPU – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
Fixed Line
Table: Fixed Line – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
Internet
Table: Internet – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
Market Overview
Mobile
Regional Perspective
Table: Japan Mobile Market Regional Comparisons, 2011
Key Market Developments
Mobile Growth
Market Shares
ARPU
Table: Japanese Blended ARPUs 2010-2012 (JPY)
Table: Japanese Voice ARPUs 2010-2012 (JPY)
Table: Japanese Data ARPUs 2009-2012 (JPY)
Mobile Content/Value-Added Services
Value-Added Services Timeline
Table: Selected VAS Services, 2011-2012
Mobile Operator Data
Table: Japan Market Overview
Table: NTT DoCoMo
Table: KDDI
Table: Softbank Mobile
Table: eAccess
Mobile Content
Regional Outlook
Table: Selected NFC Developments, 2011
Fixed Line
Japan Telecommunications Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page
Table: Selected Fixed-Line Operators’ Subscriber Bases (‘000)
Internet
Table: NTT East And NTT West: ADSL/FTTH ('000)
Table: Number Of Broadband Subscriptions (’000)
Industry Trends And Developments
Networks
Table: 3G Mobile Subscriber Market, June 2012
Table: Market Developments
Regulatory Environment And Industry Developments
Table: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities In Japan
Table: Licence Categories
Table: Notification Categories
Competitive Landscape
Competitor Analysis
Table: Key Players: Japan Telecoms Sector
Table: Selected Operator Revenues 2005-2011 (FY end-March 31 unless stated) (US$mn)
Company Profiles
NTT Corporation
KDDI Corporation
Softbank Corp
Regional Overview
Altobridge: Connecting Remote Communities
Altobridge Commercial Deployments, July 2012
Demographic Outlook
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Japan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Japan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Ratings Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Sources
