This report presents an independent analysis of capitalizing on Long-Term Evolution (LTE) technology for mobile broadband, including potential revenues, strategies and risk. The report begins by presenting an overview of LTE technology, system performance, cost of deployment estimation, an overview of LTE infrastructure/device vendors and a detailed assessment of latest LTE mobile broadband service data plans as of January 2012 among leading LTE operators. The report then presents an in-depth assessment of strategy for LTE operators and device manufacturers for the next 5 years. The report then presents an analysis of LTE revenue and cash flow for the largest LTE operator in the world today - Verizon Wireless, from 2011 till 2021. The analysis is based on a novel simulation model that estimates projected cash flow based on operator and analyst input on LTE subscribers’ growth, ARPU, types of revenues and the cost of capital. Results of the assessment indicate that incumbent 2G/3G operators such as Verzion Wireless will start seeing profitable LTE revenues in 5 to 7 years after LTE service launch. Verizon Wireless, in particular, will witness the start of its CAPEX recovery in 2018, from large scale CAPEX investments on its LTE footprint which are expected to reach 22 Billion USD. The report concludes by presenting a risk assessment analysis for LTE operators.
Who needs to read this report?
Who needs to read this report?
- Mobile Network Operators (MNOs)
- Mobile Service Providers / Merchants
- Handset Manufacturers
- Financial analysts covering the telecom sector
1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2 INTRODUCTION
3 LTE TECHNOLOGY OVERVIEW
3.1 Important Network Infrastructure Changes
3.1.1 Evolution History
3.1.2 New system requirements
3.1.3 Network Architecture and Protocols overview
3.2 LTE Spectrum Availability
3.3 LTE Performance Analysis
3.4 Cost of LTE Investment
3.4.1 LTE License
3.4.2 LTE Infrastructure Cost
3.4.3 Network Deployment Costs
3.4.4 Estimation of Total Cost of LTE Deployment
3.5 LTE Terminals
4 POSITIONING OF LTE TECHNOLOGY THROUGHOUT THE WORLD
5 WIRELESS OPERATOR BUSINESS MODELS
5.1 Principles of MNO Business Models
5.2 Examples of Subscription Plans with LTE and HSPA+
5.2.1 Orange France (HSPA+)
5.2.2 Telia Sweden
5.2.3 Telia Sonera Norway (Nextgentel)
5.2.4 Vodafone Germany
5.2.5 T-Mobile Austria
5.2.6 Verizon wireless U.S.
5.2.7 AT&T U.S.
5.2.8 Telstra Australia
5.2.9 Roger Canada
5.2.10 NTT DoCoMo Japan
6 LTE INFRASTRUCTURE VENDOR POSITIONS
6.1 Alcatel-Lucent
6.2 Ericsson AB
6.3 Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd.
6.4 NEC Corp.
6.5 Nokia Siemens Networks
6.6 ZTE Corporation
7 MNO SERVICE STRATEGIES FOR NEXT FIVE YEARS
7.1 Data networking
7.2 Voice over IP
7.3 M-banking
7.4 M-shopping
7.5 M-Payment
7.6 Application store
7.7 M2M
7.8 Music
7.9 Video On Demand and M-TV
7.10 Games
7.11 Mobile Advertising
7.12 M-health
7.13 P2P messaging
7.14 Exploiting Customer Data to Third Parties
8 LTE HANDSET & CHIPSET MANUFACTURER STRATEGIES
9 DIAGNOSTIC OF LTE PROFITABILITY, PROJECT RISK AND GROWTH
9.1 LTE Revenue Estimation 2011-2016 for the Verizon Wireless LTE System
9.2 Estimation of the LTE Cash Flow Generated by the Verizon Wireless LTE System (2011-2016)
9.3 Cannibalization and Sales Erosion Effect on the Verizon Wireless LTE System (2011-2016)
9.4 Effect of Sales Erosion (Cannibalism Effect) on Profitability for Years 2011-2016
9.5 Cash Flow from LTE Project for Years 2011-2021
9.6 Cannibalization and Sales Erosion Effect on the Verizon Wireless LTE System for years 2011-2021
9.1 Break Event Date for Verizon Wireless LTE profitability
10 LTE RISK ASSESSMENT
10.1 Justification of LTE Deployment in Mid-term and Risk of 2G/3G System Vulnerability
10.2 Is WiMAX a Threat for LTE Systems
10.3 Cannibalization of LTE Operator Core Revenues by Services provided by OTT Players
10.4 Slow Adoption of LTE Services due to Spectrum Fragmentation
10.5 MVNO Threat and Price War
10.6 Will Signaling be the LTE Bottleneck
COMPANIES MENTIONED
ETSI, ATIS, TTA, ARIB, CCSA,TTC).Ericsson,4G America, Verizon Wireless, AT&T, US Cellular, MetroPCS, Cox Cable, Cellular South, CenturyTel, PCMag.com, Spirent, T-Mobile USA, Cricket, Leap NextWave, Aloha Partners, Rogers, Telus, Bell Mobility Inc, France Telecom / Orange, Bouygues Telecom, SFR, Telefónica, Vodafone, TeliaSonera, TIM, Vodafone, Wind Italy and H3G Italia ,O2 Germany, T-Mobile, E-Plus, DT, Vodafone D2, Vodafone Essar, Bharti Airtel, LightSquared,Sprint, Nextel, Clearwire Global mobile Suppliers Association Samsung, HTC, LG, Motorola Compaq, HP TeliaSonera, TeliaSonera, MTS, UCell, Mobyland & CenterNet, MetroPCS, A1 Telekom Austria, TeleNor Sweden, Tele2 Sweden, CSL Limited, TeliaSonera, Vodafone, Verizon Wireless, Elisa, TeliaSonera, EMT, NTT DoCoMo, Deutsche Telekom, Smart Communications, Omnitel, LMT, M1,SK Telecom, LG, Rogers Wireless, T-Mobile, Bell Mobility, Mobily, STC, Zain, Etisalat, Telstra, TDC,Telia Sweden, Telia Sonera Norway (Nextgentel), Vodafone Germany, T-Mobile Austria, T-Mobile Austria, Telstra Australia, NTT DoCoMo Japan, Alcatel-Lucent, Nokia Siemens Networks Huawei - Etisalat and Vimpelcom/Karte, Ericsson AB, China Unicom, AXIS, SingTel,O2 in UK, WRI, NEC Corp.,ZTE Corporation, Skype, WhatsApp, iMessage, Viber,Shopkick, ShopSavvy, eBuy, Discover Financial Services, Barclays, Research In Motion, SK Telecom, Apple, Microsoft, Nokia, Samsung,Deutsche Telekom,ABC Entertainment, ABC Family, ABC News, Disney Channel, Disney XD,ESPN, MetroSTUDIO, Ubitus Inc, OnLive, Google, Qualcomm, SEQUANS, Samsung, ST Ericsson, Altair Semiconductor, Infinion, MediaTek, Renesas, Broadcom, nVIDIA, Samsung, LG, Motorola, Research In Motion, HTC, Cisco,Navini,Starent Networks,KPN,BBM,Twitter, Facebook,Yoigo.
COUNTIRES COVERED
Afghanistan
Albania
Algeria
Andorra
Angola
Anguilla
Antigua & Barbuda
Argentina
Armenia
Aruba
Australia
Austria
Azerbaijan
Bahamas
Bahrain
Bangladesh
Barbados
Belarus
Belgium
Belize
Benin
Bermuda
Bhutan
Bolivia
Bosnia Herzegovina
Botswana
Brazil
British Virgin Islands
Brunei
Bulgaria
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cambodia
Cameroon
Canada
Cape Verde
Cayman Islands
Central African Republic
Chad
Chile
China
Cocos Islands
Colombia
Comoros Islands
Congo
Cook Islands
Costa Rica
Côte d'Ivoire
Croatia
Cuba
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Democratic Rep of Congo
Denmark
Djibouti
Dominica
Dominican Republic
East Timor
Ecuador
Egypt
El Salvador
Equatorial Guinea
Eritrea
Estonia
Ethiopia
Faroe Islands
Federated States of Micronesia
Fiji
Finland
France
French Guiana
French Polynesia
French West Indies
Gabon
Gambia
Georgia
Germany
Ghana
Gibraltar
Greece
Greenland
Grenada
Guam
Guatemala
Guernsey
Guinea Republic
Guinea-Bissau
Guyana
Haiti
Honduras
Hong Kong
Hungary
Iceland
India
Indonesia
Iran
Iraq
Ireland
Isle of Man
Israel
Italy
Jamaica
Japan
Jersey
Jordan
Kazakhstan
Kenya
Kirghizstan
Kiribati
Korea
Kosovo
Kuwait
Laos
Latvia
Lebanon
Lesotho
Liberia
Libya
Liechtenstein
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Macau
Macedonia
Madagascar
Malawi
Malaysia
Maldives
Mali
Malta
Marshall Islands
Mauritania
Mauritius
Mayotte
Mexico
Moldova
Monaco
Mongolia
Montenegro
Montserrat
Morocco
Mozambique
Myanmar
Namibia
Nepal
Netherlands
Netherlands Antilles
New Caledonia
New Zealand
Nicaragua
Niger
Nigeria
Niue
North Korea
Northern Marianas
Norway
Oman
Pakistan
Palau
Palestine
Panama
Papua New Guinea
Paraguay
Peru
Philippines
Poland
Portugal
Puerto Rico
Qatar
Réunion
Romania
Russia
Rwanda
Samoa
Samoa (American)
Sao Tomé & Principe
Saudi Arabia
Senegal
Serbia
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
Singapore
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
Solomon Islands
Somalia
South Africa
Spain
Sri Lanka
St Kitts & Nevis
St Lucia
St Vincent & The Grenadines
Sudan
Suriname
Swaziland
Sweden
Switzerland
Syria
Taiwan
Tajikistan
Tanzania
Thailand
Togo
Tonga
Trinidad & Tobago
Tunisia
Turkey
Turkmenistan
Turks & Caicos Islands
U.S.A
UAE
Uganda
UK
Ukraine
Uruguay
US Virgin Islands
Uzbekistan
Vanuatu
Venezuela
Vietnam
Yemen
Zambia
Zimbabwe
2 INTRODUCTION
3 LTE TECHNOLOGY OVERVIEW
3.1 Important Network Infrastructure Changes
3.1.1 Evolution History
3.1.2 New system requirements
3.1.3 Network Architecture and Protocols overview
3.2 LTE Spectrum Availability
3.3 LTE Performance Analysis
3.4 Cost of LTE Investment
3.4.1 LTE License
3.4.2 LTE Infrastructure Cost
3.4.3 Network Deployment Costs
3.4.4 Estimation of Total Cost of LTE Deployment
3.5 LTE Terminals
4 POSITIONING OF LTE TECHNOLOGY THROUGHOUT THE WORLD
5 WIRELESS OPERATOR BUSINESS MODELS
5.1 Principles of MNO Business Models
5.2 Examples of Subscription Plans with LTE and HSPA+
5.2.1 Orange France (HSPA+)
5.2.2 Telia Sweden
5.2.3 Telia Sonera Norway (Nextgentel)
5.2.4 Vodafone Germany
5.2.5 T-Mobile Austria
5.2.6 Verizon wireless U.S.
5.2.7 AT&T U.S.
5.2.8 Telstra Australia
5.2.9 Roger Canada
5.2.10 NTT DoCoMo Japan
6 LTE INFRASTRUCTURE VENDOR POSITIONS
6.1 Alcatel-Lucent
6.2 Ericsson AB
6.3 Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd.
6.4 NEC Corp.
6.5 Nokia Siemens Networks
6.6 ZTE Corporation
7 MNO SERVICE STRATEGIES FOR NEXT FIVE YEARS
7.1 Data networking
7.2 Voice over IP
7.3 M-banking
7.4 M-shopping
7.5 M-Payment
7.6 Application store
7.7 M2M
7.8 Music
7.9 Video On Demand and M-TV
7.10 Games
7.11 Mobile Advertising
7.12 M-health
7.13 P2P messaging
7.14 Exploiting Customer Data to Third Parties
8 LTE HANDSET & CHIPSET MANUFACTURER STRATEGIES
9 DIAGNOSTIC OF LTE PROFITABILITY, PROJECT RISK AND GROWTH
9.1 LTE Revenue Estimation 2011-2016 for the Verizon Wireless LTE System
9.2 Estimation of the LTE Cash Flow Generated by the Verizon Wireless LTE System (2011-2016)
9.3 Cannibalization and Sales Erosion Effect on the Verizon Wireless LTE System (2011-2016)
9.4 Effect of Sales Erosion (Cannibalism Effect) on Profitability for Years 2011-2016
9.5 Cash Flow from LTE Project for Years 2011-2021
9.6 Cannibalization and Sales Erosion Effect on the Verizon Wireless LTE System for years 2011-2021
9.1 Break Event Date for Verizon Wireless LTE profitability
10 LTE RISK ASSESSMENT
10.1 Justification of LTE Deployment in Mid-term and Risk of 2G/3G System Vulnerability
10.2 Is WiMAX a Threat for LTE Systems
10.3 Cannibalization of LTE Operator Core Revenues by Services provided by OTT Players
10.4 Slow Adoption of LTE Services due to Spectrum Fragmentation
10.5 MVNO Threat and Price War
10.6 Will Signaling be the LTE Bottleneck
COMPANIES MENTIONED
ETSI, ATIS, TTA, ARIB, CCSA,TTC).Ericsson,4G America, Verizon Wireless, AT&T, US Cellular, MetroPCS, Cox Cable, Cellular South, CenturyTel, PCMag.com, Spirent, T-Mobile USA, Cricket, Leap NextWave, Aloha Partners, Rogers, Telus, Bell Mobility Inc, France Telecom / Orange, Bouygues Telecom, SFR, Telefónica, Vodafone, TeliaSonera, TIM, Vodafone, Wind Italy and H3G Italia ,O2 Germany, T-Mobile, E-Plus, DT, Vodafone D2, Vodafone Essar, Bharti Airtel, LightSquared,Sprint, Nextel, Clearwire Global mobile Suppliers Association Samsung, HTC, LG, Motorola Compaq, HP TeliaSonera, TeliaSonera, MTS, UCell, Mobyland & CenterNet, MetroPCS, A1 Telekom Austria, TeleNor Sweden, Tele2 Sweden, CSL Limited, TeliaSonera, Vodafone, Verizon Wireless, Elisa, TeliaSonera, EMT, NTT DoCoMo, Deutsche Telekom, Smart Communications, Omnitel, LMT, M1,SK Telecom, LG, Rogers Wireless, T-Mobile, Bell Mobility, Mobily, STC, Zain, Etisalat, Telstra, TDC,Telia Sweden, Telia Sonera Norway (Nextgentel), Vodafone Germany, T-Mobile Austria, T-Mobile Austria, Telstra Australia, NTT DoCoMo Japan, Alcatel-Lucent, Nokia Siemens Networks Huawei - Etisalat and Vimpelcom/Karte, Ericsson AB, China Unicom, AXIS, SingTel,O2 in UK, WRI, NEC Corp.,ZTE Corporation, Skype, WhatsApp, iMessage, Viber,Shopkick, ShopSavvy, eBuy, Discover Financial Services, Barclays, Research In Motion, SK Telecom, Apple, Microsoft, Nokia, Samsung,Deutsche Telekom,ABC Entertainment, ABC Family, ABC News, Disney Channel, Disney XD,ESPN, MetroSTUDIO, Ubitus Inc, OnLive, Google, Qualcomm, SEQUANS, Samsung, ST Ericsson, Altair Semiconductor, Infinion, MediaTek, Renesas, Broadcom, nVIDIA, Samsung, LG, Motorola, Research In Motion, HTC, Cisco,Navini,Starent Networks,KPN,BBM,Twitter, Facebook,Yoigo.
COUNTIRES COVERED
Afghanistan
Albania
Algeria
Andorra
Angola
Anguilla
Antigua & Barbuda
Argentina
Armenia
Aruba
Australia
Austria
Azerbaijan
Bahamas
Bahrain
Bangladesh
Barbados
Belarus
Belgium
Belize
Benin
Bermuda
Bhutan
Bolivia
Bosnia Herzegovina
Botswana
Brazil
British Virgin Islands
Brunei
Bulgaria
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cambodia
Cameroon
Canada
Cape Verde
Cayman Islands
Central African Republic
Chad
Chile
China
Cocos Islands
Colombia
Comoros Islands
Congo
Cook Islands
Costa Rica
Côte d'Ivoire
Croatia
Cuba
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Democratic Rep of Congo
Denmark
Djibouti
Dominica
Dominican Republic
East Timor
Ecuador
Egypt
El Salvador
Equatorial Guinea
Eritrea
Estonia
Ethiopia
Faroe Islands
Federated States of Micronesia
Fiji
Finland
France
French Guiana
French Polynesia
French West Indies
Gabon
Gambia
Georgia
Germany
Ghana
Gibraltar
Greece
Greenland
Grenada
Guam
Guatemala
Guernsey
Guinea Republic
Guinea-Bissau
Guyana
Haiti
Honduras
Hong Kong
Hungary
Iceland
India
Indonesia
Iran
Iraq
Ireland
Isle of Man
Israel
Italy
Jamaica
Japan
Jersey
Jordan
Kazakhstan
Kenya
Kirghizstan
Kiribati
Korea
Kosovo
Kuwait
Laos
Latvia
Lebanon
Lesotho
Liberia
Libya
Liechtenstein
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Macau
Macedonia
Madagascar
Malawi
Malaysia
Maldives
Mali
Malta
Marshall Islands
Mauritania
Mauritius
Mayotte
Mexico
Moldova
Monaco
Mongolia
Montenegro
Montserrat
Morocco
Mozambique
Myanmar
Namibia
Nepal
Netherlands
Netherlands Antilles
New Caledonia
New Zealand
Nicaragua
Niger
Nigeria
Niue
North Korea
Northern Marianas
Norway
Oman
Pakistan
Palau
Palestine
Panama
Papua New Guinea
Paraguay
Peru
Philippines
Poland
Portugal
Puerto Rico
Qatar
Réunion
Romania
Russia
Rwanda
Samoa
Samoa (American)
Sao Tomé & Principe
Saudi Arabia
Senegal
Serbia
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
Singapore
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
Solomon Islands
Somalia
South Africa
Spain
Sri Lanka
St Kitts & Nevis
St Lucia
St Vincent & The Grenadines
Sudan
Suriname
Swaziland
Sweden
Switzerland
Syria
Taiwan
Tajikistan
Tanzania
Thailand
Togo
Tonga
Trinidad & Tobago
Tunisia
Turkey
Turkmenistan
Turks & Caicos Islands
U.S.A
UAE
Uganda
UK
Ukraine
Uruguay
US Virgin Islands
Uzbekistan
Vanuatu
Venezuela
Vietnam
Yemen
Zambia
Zimbabwe
