Bosnia and Herzegovina Telecommunications Report Q3 2011
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
The BMI Q311 report on the telecoms market in Bosnia & Herzegovina includes analyses of the country's mobile, fixed-line and broadband subscriber markets. It also depicts growth in the number of internet users and analyses specific internet usage trends. The report contains five-year growth forecasts that chart how the country's different telecommunications sectors are likely to develop. Our five-year forecasts are based on the most recent available figures to be published by Bosnia's telecoms regulator and by the country's leading network operators. In addition to our five-year growth forecasts for the mobile, fixed-line and internet markets, we have added in ARPU forecasts for the mobile market.
At the time of writing, there had been little new official figures on how Bosnia's telecommunications market developed in the second half of 2010, although limited data on the fixed voice and internet markets were available from the regulator. The most recent full release of regulatory data relates to the end of 2009 while, in the case of the network operators, a limited amount of data had been published for the end of H110. We expect a full release of data to be available for the next Bosnia & Herzegovina telecoms market report. Considering the infrequency with which official figures are published, BMI's forecasts and assessments of the Bosnian telecoms market also take into account media, other industry sources and analyst evaluation of similar markets.
The Bosnian market is demarcated into three distinct historical concession areas for the three incumbent telecoms operators. The country is split into two distinct political regions, the Federation of Bosnia & Herzegovina (FBiH) and the Republika Srpska. BH Telecom remains the largest operator across all segments and has the largest historical concession area, in the FBiH. Telekom Srpske is the second largest operator and is responsible for the second largest region, the Republika Srpska. Meanwhile, HT Mostar is the smallest incumbent operator and is active in Herzegovina and is the smallest of the three.
As part of its wider goal of promoting competition among the three incumbent operators in the fixed and mobile sectors, Bosnia's telecoms regulator, the CRa, cut interconnection rates and introduced regulations to allow the operators to provide services outside their original regions of concession. Indeed, BMI believes the regulator to be taking a tougher line with the incumbent operators following its fines imposed for missing the mobile number portability deadline in March 2011. This approach seems to be yielding positive results, albeit at a slow pace, as the country's second largest mobile operator, Telekom Srpske, announced it had about 250,000 or 19% of its subscribers in the FBiH at the end of H110. Despite the progress made by the operators in achieving national coverage, it is notable that on-net voice calls continue to record the majority of all calls on fixed and mobile networks. Bosnia's regulator has taken steps to encourage fair competition between the incumbents and the alternative operators in the fixed voice and broadband sectors. No outstanding progress has been made, as the incumbents seem keen to maintain market dominance. Although wireline competition remains limited, Bosnia's broadband sector continued to grow rapidly, with xDSL technologies being the main growth driver. This is encouraging development of advanced data services, such as IPTV.
Considering the limited rollout of fixed-line internet infrastructure, BMI believes that 3G mobile services will ultimately play a key role in the expansion of broadband penetration. Among the factors favouring such a development are, firstly, the considerable reach of mobile networks compared with wireline infrastructure and, secondly, the prohibitive cost of developing the fixed-line infrastructure, particularly in rural areas. BH Telecom and Telekom Srpske have commercially launched 3G services and are in the process of extending their networks nationwide.
BMI continues to await a timetable regarding the privatisation of HT Mostar and BH Telecom. The government had previously announced the privatisation of BH Telecom would occur after the general election due in October 2010. However, the country experienced delays forming a government and there has been no word about whether the new government plans to proceed with the sale. The incumbent, which is already 39.1% owned by Croatia's T-Hrvatski Telekom, itself a majority owned by Germany's Deutsche Telekom, does not seem likely to be fully privatised in the near future.
Bosnia remains in 17th position in BMI's latest set of Business Environment Ratings for Emerging Europe. This is in spite of receiving a slightly higher score in the Country Risk category. Bosnia recently slipped from 16th to 17th position in our ratings table and has remained there since. Bosnia continues to score well below average in all of the categories surveyed by BMI.
The BMI Q311 report on the telecoms market in Bosnia & Herzegovina includes analyses of the country's mobile, fixed-line and broadband subscriber markets. It also depicts growth in the number of internet users and analyses specific internet usage trends. The report contains five-year growth forecasts that chart how the country's different telecommunications sectors are likely to develop. Our five-year forecasts are based on the most recent available figures to be published by Bosnia's telecoms regulator and by the country's leading network operators. In addition to our five-year growth forecasts for the mobile, fixed-line and internet markets, we have added in ARPU forecasts for the mobile market.
At the time of writing, there had been little new official figures on how Bosnia's telecommunications market developed in the second half of 2010, although limited data on the fixed voice and internet markets were available from the regulator. The most recent full release of regulatory data relates to the end of 2009 while, in the case of the network operators, a limited amount of data had been published for the end of H110. We expect a full release of data to be available for the next Bosnia & Herzegovina telecoms market report. Considering the infrequency with which official figures are published, BMI's forecasts and assessments of the Bosnian telecoms market also take into account media, other industry sources and analyst evaluation of similar markets.
The Bosnian market is demarcated into three distinct historical concession areas for the three incumbent telecoms operators. The country is split into two distinct political regions, the Federation of Bosnia & Herzegovina (FBiH) and the Republika Srpska. BH Telecom remains the largest operator across all segments and has the largest historical concession area, in the FBiH. Telekom Srpske is the second largest operator and is responsible for the second largest region, the Republika Srpska. Meanwhile, HT Mostar is the smallest incumbent operator and is active in Herzegovina and is the smallest of the three.
As part of its wider goal of promoting competition among the three incumbent operators in the fixed and mobile sectors, Bosnia's telecoms regulator, the CRa, cut interconnection rates and introduced regulations to allow the operators to provide services outside their original regions of concession. Indeed, BMI believes the regulator to be taking a tougher line with the incumbent operators following its fines imposed for missing the mobile number portability deadline in March 2011. This approach seems to be yielding positive results, albeit at a slow pace, as the country's second largest mobile operator, Telekom Srpske, announced it had about 250,000 or 19% of its subscribers in the FBiH at the end of H110. Despite the progress made by the operators in achieving national coverage, it is notable that on-net voice calls continue to record the majority of all calls on fixed and mobile networks. Bosnia's regulator has taken steps to encourage fair competition between the incumbents and the alternative operators in the fixed voice and broadband sectors. No outstanding progress has been made, as the incumbents seem keen to maintain market dominance. Although wireline competition remains limited, Bosnia's broadband sector continued to grow rapidly, with xDSL technologies being the main growth driver. This is encouraging development of advanced data services, such as IPTV.
Considering the limited rollout of fixed-line internet infrastructure, BMI believes that 3G mobile services will ultimately play a key role in the expansion of broadband penetration. Among the factors favouring such a development are, firstly, the considerable reach of mobile networks compared with wireline infrastructure and, secondly, the prohibitive cost of developing the fixed-line infrastructure, particularly in rural areas. BH Telecom and Telekom Srpske have commercially launched 3G services and are in the process of extending their networks nationwide.
BMI continues to await a timetable regarding the privatisation of HT Mostar and BH Telecom. The government had previously announced the privatisation of BH Telecom would occur after the general election due in October 2010. However, the country experienced delays forming a government and there has been no word about whether the new government plans to proceed with the sale. The incumbent, which is already 39.1% owned by Croatia's T-Hrvatski Telekom, itself a majority owned by Germany's Deutsche Telekom, does not seem likely to be fully privatised in the near future.
Bosnia remains in 17th position in BMI's latest set of Business Environment Ratings for Emerging Europe. This is in spite of receiving a slightly higher score in the Country Risk category. Bosnia recently slipped from 16th to 17th position in our ratings table and has remained there since. Bosnia continues to score well below average in all of the categories surveyed by BMI.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
Mobile
Fixed-Line And Internet Sector
Political
Economic
Business Environment
Business Environment Overview
Bosnia
Central And Eastern Europe
Table: Table: Central And Eastern Europe Business Environment Ratings
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile
Table: Bosnian Telecoms Sector - Mobile, 2008-2015
ARPU
Table: Bosnian Telecoms Sector - Mobile ARPU, 2008-2015
Fixed Line
Table: Bosnian Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line, 2008-2015
Internet
Table: Bosnian Telecoms Sector - Internet, 2008-2015
Market Data Analysis
Mobile
Table: Mobile Contract Wins
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina Mobile Data
Table: Mobilne Srpske
Table: HT Mobilne Komunikacije
CEE Mobile Content Outlook
Fixed Line
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina's Fixed-Line Operators
Broadband
Table: Telekom Srpske's Internet Operations, 2008 And 2009 ('000)
Table: Wireline Developments, 2008-2009
Regulatory Development
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Industry Developments
Company Monitor
Huawei Eyes Europe Opportunities
Strategy
Table: Table: Samsung CEE 4G Contracts
Company Profiles
BH Telecom
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Fixed Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Broadband
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Table: Ratings Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 83 Skip to top