Belgium Telecommunications Report Q3 2011
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
Due to the convergence of a number of factors, the Belgian market is entering a period of evolution that will affect the strategies of a number of operators. These trends and developments are covered in the Q312 Belgium Telecommunications Report, along with market data analysis of the mobile, fixed-line, broadband and pay-TV markets. The report also includes our latest forecast for the telecoms markets through to 2016.BMI believes there are two key developments that will have a significant impact on telecoms markets in Belgium over the medium term. The first is the introduction of mobile termination rate (MTR) cuts in January 2012 and January 2013 that will result in MTRs declining by an average of 74.6% from their 2011 levels to EURc1.08 by 2013. This will have a significant impact on mobile operators Proximus, Mobistar and BASE, and putting increased pressure on them to develop revenue streams in data services. One area Mobistar has performed particularly well in is the nascent machine-tomachine market, claiming 70% market share in 2011. We expect this market to grow rapidly, which could become a valuable source of revenue for the operator.
Meanwhile, a second development is the licensing of two new mobile network operators in Q411. The Belgian regulator auctioned spare 3G frequencies as well as new 4G licences. While it will still be some time before commercial 4G services are introduced, we think that newcomer 3G operator Telenet-Tecteo could grow very quickly given that it can leverage a near-nationwide cable TV/broadband/voice telephony footprint to offer a full package of affordable converged services. The only questions we have regarding its ability to fulfil that potential is how quickly it can build out its network and whether it will have an easy time negotiating interconnection and access agreements with rivals Proximus, Mobistar and BASE.
Four 4G licences have been issued, with the three incumbents each taking one licence and a fourth being awarded to a company that appears to be completely new to the Belgian – if not the European – telecoms market. The identities of the shareholders backing BUCD BVBA have not been disclosed, although it is suggested that they are based in China and may, in some way, be related to China Mobile and equipment supplier Datang Telecom. If so, it seems likely that the newcomer will build a network based on the Chinese-developed LTE-TDD standard and this suggests that its focus will be on mobile broadband.
While we do not discount the possibility that the newcomer will be able to establish itself quickly, it will have an uphill struggle to do so, given the maturity of the Belgian mobile market and the loyalty of millions of mobile broadband users to tried and trusted brands.
Despite the uptick in growth that saw 268,000 mobile subscriber net additions in H211 we continue to forecast only nominal increases in mobile subscriber numbers over the 2012-2016 period. We expect there to be 15.75mn subscribers by 2016, a penetration rate of over 144.6%, due to a brief boost to growth rates in mobile services from 2012/2013 stemming from the arrival of the new entrants.
Meanwhile, we expect the fixed-line market to decline 2012-16, albeit only slightly, as the high penetration of converged services acts as a brake on the process of fixed-to-mobile substitution. The broadband market has a brighter outlook, driven primarily by mobile broadband growth. However, over the duration of our forecast period we expect growth rates to slow considerably. As growth slows, we expect strategy to become increasingly orientated towards value generation as subscribers demand higher speeds and increase consumption of VAS including multiscreen, OTT and VOD.
Due to the convergence of a number of factors, the Belgian market is entering a period of evolution that will affect the strategies of a number of operators. These trends and developments are covered in the Q312 Belgium Telecommunications Report, along with market data analysis of the mobile, fixed-line, broadband and pay-TV markets. The report also includes our latest forecast for the telecoms markets through to 2016.BMI believes there are two key developments that will have a significant impact on telecoms markets in Belgium over the medium term. The first is the introduction of mobile termination rate (MTR) cuts in January 2012 and January 2013 that will result in MTRs declining by an average of 74.6% from their 2011 levels to EURc1.08 by 2013. This will have a significant impact on mobile operators Proximus, Mobistar and BASE, and putting increased pressure on them to develop revenue streams in data services. One area Mobistar has performed particularly well in is the nascent machine-tomachine market, claiming 70% market share in 2011. We expect this market to grow rapidly, which could become a valuable source of revenue for the operator.
Meanwhile, a second development is the licensing of two new mobile network operators in Q411. The Belgian regulator auctioned spare 3G frequencies as well as new 4G licences. While it will still be some time before commercial 4G services are introduced, we think that newcomer 3G operator Telenet-Tecteo could grow very quickly given that it can leverage a near-nationwide cable TV/broadband/voice telephony footprint to offer a full package of affordable converged services. The only questions we have regarding its ability to fulfil that potential is how quickly it can build out its network and whether it will have an easy time negotiating interconnection and access agreements with rivals Proximus, Mobistar and BASE.
Four 4G licences have been issued, with the three incumbents each taking one licence and a fourth being awarded to a company that appears to be completely new to the Belgian – if not the European – telecoms market. The identities of the shareholders backing BUCD BVBA have not been disclosed, although it is suggested that they are based in China and may, in some way, be related to China Mobile and equipment supplier Datang Telecom. If so, it seems likely that the newcomer will build a network based on the Chinese-developed LTE-TDD standard and this suggests that its focus will be on mobile broadband.
While we do not discount the possibility that the newcomer will be able to establish itself quickly, it will have an uphill struggle to do so, given the maturity of the Belgian mobile market and the loyalty of millions of mobile broadband users to tried and trusted brands.
Despite the uptick in growth that saw 268,000 mobile subscriber net additions in H211 we continue to forecast only nominal increases in mobile subscriber numbers over the 2012-2016 period. We expect there to be 15.75mn subscribers by 2016, a penetration rate of over 144.6%, due to a brief boost to growth rates in mobile services from 2012/2013 stemming from the arrival of the new entrants.
Meanwhile, we expect the fixed-line market to decline 2012-16, albeit only slightly, as the high penetration of converged services acts as a brake on the process of fixed-to-mobile substitution. The broadband market has a brighter outlook, driven primarily by mobile broadband growth. However, over the duration of our forecast period we expect growth rates to slow considerably. As growth slows, we expect strategy to become increasingly orientated towards value generation as subscribers demand higher speeds and increase consumption of VAS including multiscreen, OTT and VOD.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
Belgium Wireline SWOT
Belgium Mobile SWOT
Belgium Political SWOT
Belgium Economic SWOT
Risk/Reward ratings
Western Europe
Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312
Belgium
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile
Table: Belgium Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data And Forecasts
ARPU
Table: Proximus And BASE ARPU Figures, 2009-2016 (EUR)
Fixed Line
Table: Belgium Telecoms Sector – Fixed-Line – Historical Data & Forecasts
Internet
Table: Belgium Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts
Market Data Analysis
Mobile Market
Market Shares
Table: Belgium Mobile Market (Q411)
Subscriber Mix
ARPU
Table: ARPU
3G
4G
Mobile Contract Wins
Table: Belgium Mobile Contract Wins
Mobile Operator Data
Table: Market Overview
Table: Proximus
Table: Mobistar
Table: Base
Mobile Content
Regional Outlook
Table: Smart Meter Race Is On
Country Outlook
M2M
Smartphones/Tablets
Value-Added Services
Fixed Line
Internet
Table: Wireline Developments
Converged Service Operator Data
Belgacom
Telenet
Regulatory Environment
Belgium: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Legislation And Market Liberalisation
Regulation
Licensing And Spectrum
Regulatory Developments
Fourth 3G Licence Awarded; 4G Licences Auctioned
Mobile Licence Renewals
Belgian Cable Operators Face Open Regulation
Mobile Termination Rates Developments
Title: Belgium MTR Glide Path (All EUc pm)
Universal Service
Local Loop Unbundling And Bitstream Price Regulation
Competitive Landscape
Market Overview
Table: Key Players – Belgium Telecoms Sector
Table: Selected Telecoms Operator Financial Indicators
Company Monitor
Addressable Market
Operator Profiles
Belgacom
Mobistar
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Fixed Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Internet
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Demographic Outlook
Belgium's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Belgium's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Belgium's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Belgium's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Telecoms Industry Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings System
Indicators
Table: Ratings Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Sources Skip to top