Singapore Defence and Security Report Q3 2011
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
Singapore’s military recruitment strategy is similar to that of Israel, owing to its small population and relatively high defence requirements. The military relies heavily on conscripts and reservists, advanced weaponry and a core of highly trained, professional active military personnel. In addition, the Ministry of Defence maintains a strict zero-growth policy with regards to the military recruitment. This policy has led to increased reliance on unmanned defence technology for the army, navy and air force.
Piracy and terrorism still remain the key security threat for Singapore. The Malacca Strait connecting to Indonesia are classified as one of the world’s main maritime ‘chokepoints’. 2011 is expected to see a further increase in attacks and robberies after a record number in 2010. Government policy will focus on increasing patrols to ward off potential threats.
Singapore's ruling People's Action Party (PAP) won general elections held on May 7, garnering 60.1% of popular votes and 81 out of 87 seats in parliament. This outcome is in line with our expectation and is broadly positive for both economic and political stability.
On the back of a massive kickoff in 2011, we have decided to upgrade Singapore's real GDP growth forecast to 5.9% (the upper end of the government's forecast of 4.0-6.0%) from 5.1% previously. Indeed, preliminary estimates from the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) indicate that Singapore's real GDP growth reached 8.5% y-o-y in Q111. Sequentially, there was acceleration in momentum, with real GDP increasing by 23.5% q-o-q on an annualised, seasonally adjusted basis. This pace of growth is unlikely to be sustained as we expect the regional monetary tightening to have an impact on external demand in the coming quarters and we also project a China-led slowdown in H211.
Singapore’s military recruitment strategy is similar to that of Israel, owing to its small population and relatively high defence requirements. The military relies heavily on conscripts and reservists, advanced weaponry and a core of highly trained, professional active military personnel. In addition, the Ministry of Defence maintains a strict zero-growth policy with regards to the military recruitment. This policy has led to increased reliance on unmanned defence technology for the army, navy and air force.
Piracy and terrorism still remain the key security threat for Singapore. The Malacca Strait connecting to Indonesia are classified as one of the world’s main maritime ‘chokepoints’. 2011 is expected to see a further increase in attacks and robberies after a record number in 2010. Government policy will focus on increasing patrols to ward off potential threats.
Singapore's ruling People's Action Party (PAP) won general elections held on May 7, garnering 60.1% of popular votes and 81 out of 87 seats in parliament. This outcome is in line with our expectation and is broadly positive for both economic and political stability.
On the back of a massive kickoff in 2011, we have decided to upgrade Singapore's real GDP growth forecast to 5.9% (the upper end of the government's forecast of 4.0-6.0%) from 5.1% previously. Indeed, preliminary estimates from the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) indicate that Singapore's real GDP growth reached 8.5% y-o-y in Q111. Sequentially, there was acceleration in momentum, with real GDP increasing by 23.5% q-o-q on an annualised, seasonally adjusted basis. This pace of growth is unlikely to be sustained as we expect the regional monetary tightening to have an impact on external demand in the coming quarters and we also project a China-led slowdown in H211.
Contents
SWOT AnalysisSingapore Security SWOT
Singapore Defence Industry SWOT
Singapore Political SWOT
Singapore Economic SWOT
Singapore Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Japan After The Quake
Global Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea
Wild Cards To Watch
South East Asia Security Overview
South East Asia In A Global Context
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security
Sino-US Rivalry In South East Asia
The Outlook For South East Asia
Security Risk Rating
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Singapore’s Risk Ratings
City Terrorism Rating
Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index
Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Political Outlook
Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
Table: Regional Insurgent Groups
External Security Situation
Territorial Disputes
Bilateral And Multilateral Security
Table: Actual And Attempted Piracy Attacks, 1996-2006
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
Defence And Military Alliances
Defence Budget
International Deployments
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Arms Trade Overview
Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: Singapore’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Singapore’s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Defence Expenditure
Table: Singapore’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015
Table: Singapore’s Defence Expenditure Scenarios – Relative To % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
Defence Trade
Table: Singapore’s Defence Imports, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
Table: Singapore’s Defence Exports, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
Table: Singapore’s Defence Trade Balance, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Singapore – Economic Activity, 2007-2015
Company Profiles
Singapore Technologies Aero
Singapore Technologies Electronics
Singapore Technologies Kinetics
Singapore Technologies Marine
Country Snapshot: Singapore Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2000-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2000-2004
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
Table: Methodology
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