Australia Defence and Security Report Q3 2011
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
Australia continues to assume its role as a strong regional power, exerting diplomatic power on the global stage and maintaining security and economic ties locally. Positive diplomatic ties to almost every nation in Asia and Oceania, close partnerships with the US and Europe, and active participation in UN dialogues and initiatives have made Australia an effective diplomatic player. The island-nation provides assistance to local emerging nations, such as East Timor and the Solomon Islands, and plays a strong role in the development of Pacific Island nations. This regional cooperation, along with little to no terrorist activity on Australian soil makes it one of the highest rated countries in terms of safety and security.
The most serious security concerns facing Australia are illegal immigration and piracy in the greater South East Asia region. Australian naval presence in frequented merchant routes has helped combat the piracy issue and the problem has provided some justification for increasing the country’s naval capacity. After a string of deaths, riots and escapes, detention centres reaching capacity and an increase in people smuggling the government began to act to enhance Australia’s system to combat illegal immigration. The most recent proposal involved an in-principle deal to transfer 800 asylum seekers to Malaysia in return for accepting 4,000 confirmed refugees into Australia.
This deal is highly controversial on both sides of the political spectrum because Malaysia has not signed or ratified the UNHR convention on refugees. The deal received strong condemnation from the Australian Human Rights commission and the High Commissioner of the UN Human Rights group who claims that the deal may breach international law.
Australia relies on economic ties with China and has seen considerable economic growth as a result of its mining operations. Recently, with the onset of the ‘mining boom mark 2’ the nation’s economic situation is expected to improve further. At the time of writing, the latest version of the Minerals Resource Rent Tax which is a matter of some political tension will be used to fund, among other things, corporate tax cuts. The strong Australian dollar, which is expected to continue to grow, has damaged exports. This could be exasperated further by the booming mining industry.
Since the release of the 2008 defence white paper the government has committed to a 3% real growth in the defence budget and has arranged for the procurement of three new Destroyers with anti-ballistic missile capability, 12 new submarines to replace the Collins class and a fleet of 100 F-35 stealth strike fighters. The military is expected to grow and strengthen as suggested by the Strategic Reform Programme; however, some commentators suggest that the growth is unsustainable and that it was unwise for the government to commit to the plan. Nevertheless, the 2011-12 budget has confirmed that the government will maintain the spending increase, despite warnings of a tight budget.
Australia continues to assume its role as a strong regional power, exerting diplomatic power on the global stage and maintaining security and economic ties locally. Positive diplomatic ties to almost every nation in Asia and Oceania, close partnerships with the US and Europe, and active participation in UN dialogues and initiatives have made Australia an effective diplomatic player. The island-nation provides assistance to local emerging nations, such as East Timor and the Solomon Islands, and plays a strong role in the development of Pacific Island nations. This regional cooperation, along with little to no terrorist activity on Australian soil makes it one of the highest rated countries in terms of safety and security.
The most serious security concerns facing Australia are illegal immigration and piracy in the greater South East Asia region. Australian naval presence in frequented merchant routes has helped combat the piracy issue and the problem has provided some justification for increasing the country’s naval capacity. After a string of deaths, riots and escapes, detention centres reaching capacity and an increase in people smuggling the government began to act to enhance Australia’s system to combat illegal immigration. The most recent proposal involved an in-principle deal to transfer 800 asylum seekers to Malaysia in return for accepting 4,000 confirmed refugees into Australia.
This deal is highly controversial on both sides of the political spectrum because Malaysia has not signed or ratified the UNHR convention on refugees. The deal received strong condemnation from the Australian Human Rights commission and the High Commissioner of the UN Human Rights group who claims that the deal may breach international law.
Australia relies on economic ties with China and has seen considerable economic growth as a result of its mining operations. Recently, with the onset of the ‘mining boom mark 2’ the nation’s economic situation is expected to improve further. At the time of writing, the latest version of the Minerals Resource Rent Tax which is a matter of some political tension will be used to fund, among other things, corporate tax cuts. The strong Australian dollar, which is expected to continue to grow, has damaged exports. This could be exasperated further by the booming mining industry.
Since the release of the 2008 defence white paper the government has committed to a 3% real growth in the defence budget and has arranged for the procurement of three new Destroyers with anti-ballistic missile capability, 12 new submarines to replace the Collins class and a fleet of 100 F-35 stealth strike fighters. The military is expected to grow and strengthen as suggested by the Strategic Reform Programme; however, some commentators suggest that the growth is unsustainable and that it was unwise for the government to commit to the plan. Nevertheless, the 2011-12 budget has confirmed that the government will maintain the spending increase, despite warnings of a tight budget.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
Australia Security SWOT
Australia Defence SWOT
Australia Political SWOT
Australia Economic SWOT
Australia Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Japan After The Quake
Global Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea
Wild Cards To Watch
South East Asia Security Overview
South East Asia In A Global Context
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security
The Outlook For South East Asia
Security Risk Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Australia’s Security Risk Rating
City Terrorism Rating
Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index
Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Foreign Policy
Long-Term Political Outlook
Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
External Security Situation
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
Defence Budget
International Deployments
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Arms Trade Overview
Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: Australia’s Armed Forces 2000-2008 (‘000 personnel)
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated), 2008-2015
Defence Expenditure
Table: Australia’s Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenarios – Changing % Of GDP (US$mn), 2010-2015
Defence Trade
Table: Defence Exports, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
Table: Defence Imports, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
Table: Defence Trade Balance, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
Macroeconomic Overview
Table: Australia – Economic Activity, 2008-2015
Company Profiles
Austal
BAE Systems Australia
Boeing Australia
Raytheon Australia
Thales Australia
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
Table: City Terrorism Rating Methodology
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