Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
The Brazil Tourism Report examines the significant long-term potential being offered by the local tourism industry, but flags short-term concerns about the lack of adequate airport infrastructure posing a challenge to the future development of air travel within the country.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by some of the leading players in the Brazilian tourism sector (airlines and hotel chains), as they seek to maximise the tremendous growth opportunities being offered by the local market at the present time. The government is also taking steps to increase the amount of foreign investment in the tourism sector, with the Secretary of Tourism Development Programmes, Fabio Mota, travelling to the Arabian Hotel Investment Conference 2012, held in Dubai in April-May, to boost foreign investor interest in Brazil.
With Brazil hosting the football World Cup in 2014 and the Olympic Games being held in Rio de Janeiro in 2016, BMI believes tourist arrivals will continue to grow strongly in the years ahead. Looking at preliminary indications for the current year, international disembarkations – which are released monthly by the Ministry of Tourism and serve as a proxy for tourist arrivals in the absence of this data being released by the ministry – show an increase of 4.95% year-on-year (y-o-y) over the first five months of 2012, to 3,890,492. Domestic disembarkations are also on an upward trajectory, rising by 6.62% y-o-y over January-May to 34,013,697.
The disembarkation data from the Ministry of Tourism covers all arrivals, including business, leisure and people visiting family and friends. However, whatever the purpose of travel, the data shows the overall trend in tourism remains positive in mid-2012, which will benefit airlines and hotels operating in Brazil.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:
The Brazil Tourism Report examines the significant long-term potential being offered by the local tourism industry, but flags short-term concerns about the lack of adequate airport infrastructure posing a challenge to the future development of air travel within the country.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by some of the leading players in the Brazilian tourism sector (airlines and hotel chains), as they seek to maximise the tremendous growth opportunities being offered by the local market at the present time. The government is also taking steps to increase the amount of foreign investment in the tourism sector, with the Secretary of Tourism Development Programmes, Fabio Mota, travelling to the Arabian Hotel Investment Conference 2012, held in Dubai in April-May, to boost foreign investor interest in Brazil.
With Brazil hosting the football World Cup in 2014 and the Olympic Games being held in Rio de Janeiro in 2016, BMI believes tourist arrivals will continue to grow strongly in the years ahead. Looking at preliminary indications for the current year, international disembarkations – which are released monthly by the Ministry of Tourism and serve as a proxy for tourist arrivals in the absence of this data being released by the ministry – show an increase of 4.95% year-on-year (y-o-y) over the first five months of 2012, to 3,890,492. Domestic disembarkations are also on an upward trajectory, rising by 6.62% y-o-y over January-May to 34,013,697.
The disembarkation data from the Ministry of Tourism covers all arrivals, including business, leisure and people visiting family and friends. However, whatever the purpose of travel, the data shows the overall trend in tourism remains positive in mid-2012, which will benefit airlines and hotels operating in Brazil.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:
- BMI believes the May announcement of a further US$3bn investment in tourism-related infrastructure by the Ministry of Tourism is very positive. This continued commitment to improving Brazil’s tourism offering by the government should do much to bolster visitor numbers in the years ahead.
- This quarter, BMI has included a new company profile on Latam Airlines, including SWOT analysis, which can be found in the Company Profiles chapter of the report.
- BMI has slightly reduced its forecast for 2012 tourist arrivals, down to 8.0% growth from 9.3%, given the relatively slow start to the year. Over 2012-2016, we forecast a 40% increase in tourist arrivals to 8.26mn people.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Brazil Tourism Industry SWOT
Brazil Political SWOT
Brazil Economic SWOT
Brazil Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Arrivals
Table: Arrivals, 2009-2016
Accommodation
Table: Accommodation, 2009-2016 (‘000)
Expenditure
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2009-2016
Inbound Tourism
Table: Inbound Tourism, 2009-2016
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism, 2009-2016
Market Overview – Travel
Commercial Airlines
Airports
Infrastructure
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, 2011-2016
Market Overview – Hospitality
Accommodation
Accommodation Developments
Budget Hotels
Business Environment Outlook
Table: Latin America Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Latin America Security Ratings
Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Ratings
Brazil’s Security Risk Ratings
Latin America Security Overview
Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
Latin America In A Global Context
Challenges And Threats To Security
Role Of Outside Powers
Key Factors To Consider In The 2010s
Global Assumptions
Table: Global Assumptions, 2010-2016
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y)
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013
Developed States
Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y)
Emerging Markets
Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y)
Company Profiles
Brazil Hospitality Group
Gol Transportes Aereos
Latam Airlines
Demographic Outlook
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000)
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings – Methodology
Table: Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Components
Sources
SWOT Analysis
Brazil Tourism Industry SWOT
Brazil Political SWOT
Brazil Economic SWOT
Brazil Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Arrivals
Table: Arrivals, 2009-2016
Accommodation
Table: Accommodation, 2009-2016 (‘000)
Expenditure
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2009-2016
Inbound Tourism
Table: Inbound Tourism, 2009-2016
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism, 2009-2016
Market Overview – Travel
Commercial Airlines
Airports
Infrastructure
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, 2011-2016
Market Overview – Hospitality
Accommodation
Accommodation Developments
Budget Hotels
Business Environment Outlook
Table: Latin America Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Latin America Security Ratings
Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Ratings
Brazil’s Security Risk Ratings
Latin America Security Overview
Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
Latin America In A Global Context
Challenges And Threats To Security
Role Of Outside Powers
Key Factors To Consider In The 2010s
Global Assumptions
Table: Global Assumptions, 2010-2016
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y)
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013
Developed States
Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y)
Emerging Markets
Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y)
Company Profiles
Brazil Hospitality Group
Gol Transportes Aereos
Latam Airlines
Demographic Outlook
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000)
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings – Methodology
Table: Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Components
Sources
