Taiwan Freight Transport Report Q1 2012
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
Following a year which saw continued growth, according to BMI's estimations, 2012 will signal further expansion in all freight modes which, with one exception, continue to recover their pre-downturn levels.
Total trade is projected to pick up, with our Country Risk desk forecasting a year-on-year (y-o-y) increase of 3.95% in 2012 following estimated growth of 6.50% in 2011.
Road freight will continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow by 3% in 2012. The sector did not manage to defy the downturn; however, it made a prompt recovery of its pre-downturn volumes and is expected to continue growing in the mid-term.
Headline Industry Data
Key Industry Trends
Yang Ming's Gamble On 16,000TEU Fleet
It is a year since rumours of Maersk Line's plans to order a fleet of 18,000 twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) vessels first emerged, and the leader of the global shipping sector remains the only line to have risked ordering ships that large. BMI notes, however, that while no other carriers are yet to join the 18,000TEU club, operators have gone larger in the orders that they have placed over the last year. We highlight the risk associated with such orders, and how this is greater for ship owners compared to operators.
Wan Hai Posts Positive Q311 Results
BMI expects container lines to show greater interest in intra-Asia routes following the latest release of Q311 data, which show Taiwan-based box operator Wan Hai Lines posting a profit. While we believe that exposure to intra-Asia is necessary in order for lines to diversify and therefore mitigate risk, we do not wish to overemphasise the route's role in the box shipping sector. As with the major trade routes, intra-Asia will be exposed to a slowing in global trade as China's economic growth slows.
EVA Air Sells Freighters Amid Decline
Taiwan's second largest carrier, EVA Air Cargo, expects the decline in air freight volumes from Taiwan to continue into 2012. The company plans to sell further cargo planes, with latest freight traffic figures lower y-o-y but higher than those of 2009.
Risks To Outlook
The strong base for growth in the country's freight transport sector stems from BMI's positive outlook for the Taiwanese economy. The country's real GDP is estimated to increase by 3.4% in 2012.
An upside risk to our forecasts comes in the form of Chinese interest in Taiwan's ports and expansion projects at its facilities. Downside risk to our freight volume forecasts is presented by the dangers to the country's export growth: should we see a hard landing as opposed to a moderation of economic activity in China's economy, or a double-dip recession playing out in the US, we would expect net exports to take a harder hit.
Following a year which saw continued growth, according to BMI's estimations, 2012 will signal further expansion in all freight modes which, with one exception, continue to recover their pre-downturn levels.
Total trade is projected to pick up, with our Country Risk desk forecasting a year-on-year (y-o-y) increase of 3.95% in 2012 following estimated growth of 6.50% in 2011.
Road freight will continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow by 3% in 2012. The sector did not manage to defy the downturn; however, it made a prompt recovery of its pre-downturn volumes and is expected to continue growing in the mid-term.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 2.1%.
- 2012 rail freight is forecast to grow by 3%.
- 2012 Port of Kaohsiung throughput is forecast to grow by 1.4%.
- 2012 road freight is forecast to grow by 3.1%.
- 2012 total real trade growth is forecast at 3.95%.
Key Industry Trends
Yang Ming's Gamble On 16,000TEU Fleet
It is a year since rumours of Maersk Line's plans to order a fleet of 18,000 twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) vessels first emerged, and the leader of the global shipping sector remains the only line to have risked ordering ships that large. BMI notes, however, that while no other carriers are yet to join the 18,000TEU club, operators have gone larger in the orders that they have placed over the last year. We highlight the risk associated with such orders, and how this is greater for ship owners compared to operators.
Wan Hai Posts Positive Q311 Results
BMI expects container lines to show greater interest in intra-Asia routes following the latest release of Q311 data, which show Taiwan-based box operator Wan Hai Lines posting a profit. While we believe that exposure to intra-Asia is necessary in order for lines to diversify and therefore mitigate risk, we do not wish to overemphasise the route's role in the box shipping sector. As with the major trade routes, intra-Asia will be exposed to a slowing in global trade as China's economic growth slows.
EVA Air Sells Freighters Amid Decline
Taiwan's second largest carrier, EVA Air Cargo, expects the decline in air freight volumes from Taiwan to continue into 2012. The company plans to sell further cargo planes, with latest freight traffic figures lower y-o-y but higher than those of 2009.
Risks To Outlook
The strong base for growth in the country's freight transport sector stems from BMI's positive outlook for the Taiwanese economy. The country's real GDP is estimated to increase by 3.4% in 2012.
An upside risk to our forecasts comes in the form of Chinese interest in Taiwan's ports and expansion projects at its facilities. Downside risk to our freight volume forecasts is presented by the dangers to the country's export growth: should we see a hard landing as opposed to a moderation of economic activity in China's economy, or a double-dip recession playing out in the US, we would expect net exports to take a harder hit.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
Taiwan Freight Transport Industry SWOT
Taiwan Political SWOT
Taiwan Economic SWOT
Taiwan Business Environment SWOT
Industry Trends And Developments
Maritime
Air
Market Overview
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Industry Forecast
Air Freight
Table: Air Freight, 2008-2016 ('000 tonnes)
Maritime Freight
Table: Maritime Freight - Throughput, 2009-2016 ('000 tonnes and % change y-o-y)
Rail Freight
Table: Rail Freight, 2008-2016
Road Freight
Table: Road Freight, 2008-2016
Trade
Table: Trade Overview, 2008 - 2016
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Political Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Taiwan - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Company Profiles
EVA Air Cargo
China Airlines Cargo (CAC)
Wan Hai Lines
Yang Ming Marine Transport Corporation
Cheng Lie Navigation Company (CNC Line)
Country Snapshot: Taiwan Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2000-2030
Section 2: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2000-2005
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2005 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2005-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Transport Industry
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