Spain Freight Transport Report 2012
BMI View Although we are forecasting moderate volume growth rates in 2012, Spain's freight transport sector faces an uncertain year. With elections due in November 2011, it is likely that a new government will be in place at the start of 2012: we are predicting a victory for the Partido Popular (PP), the centre-right party currently in opposition. But whoever is in power in Madrid, the economy is set to continue presenting a difficult challenge, with high unemployment weighing down growth, and house prices under pressure. In short, the climate will not be very supportive for freight demand. BMI now forecasts 2012 GDP growth of -0.5% (a deterioration from the 0.7% expansion experienced in 2011).
Cargo growth rates across the different transport modes will always range above and below GDP. In Spain's case we note that activity at some ports in 2012 will run ahead of the general economy. A good example is Barcelona, where - as a result of its role as a Mediterranean hub - we are projecting that the total number of containers handled will grow by a healthy 6.3%. Next is rail freight, with tonnage up by 1.8%. Road freight will take third place with 1.3%, while air freight growth is forecast at a disappointing 0.8%.
Headline Industry Data
Renfe Restructuring And Privatisation Planned
The government has announced plans to sell off part of Renfe, the state-owned rail company. Up to 45% of four separate operating companies will be offered to the private sector, including: Contren (intermodal services), Irion (iron and steel freight) and Pecovasa (automobiles and spare parts transport). BMI cautions, however, that the plan could encounter strong trade union opposition.
Private Sector Bids For Madrid-Barajas And Barcelona-El Prat
The Spanish government in September said it had received six bids each for Madrid-Barajas Airport and Barcelona's El Prat Airport as part of a planned privatisation. On offer is a 90.5% stake in each airport, with the government expecting to receive at least US$5.2bn for Madrid and US$2.25bn for Barcelona. A range of big international groups had submitted offers, including Ferrovial, Singapore's Changi Airport Group, France's Aeroports de Paris and Germany's Fraport. The government said it hoped to complete the transaction by December 2011.
Port of Barcelona Sees Box Terminal Expansion
A US$380mn financial agreement was signed in September 2011 to help fund the construction of Barcelona's new container terminal, Muelle Prat. The terminal is expected to raise the annual handling capacity of the port to 5.5mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), allowing it to emerge as the major logistic hub in the Mediterranean and the principal gateway to Southern Europe for Asian products. The terminal's developer, Terminal Catalunya (TERCAT), has claimed that it will be the most advanced semi-automated container terminal in the Mediterranean.
Key Risks To Outlook
The main downside risk to our Spanish freight forecasts is represented by the threat of contagion from the sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone. If this materialises, most likely in the shape of falling business confidence and bank difficulties, the country's main transport operators are likely to experience falling demand for their services as the economy could tip quickly back into recession. An upside risk is represented by the possibility that a new Spanish government - expected to take office in early 2012 - might be able to achieve a 'positive confidence shock' and persuade the markets that it has a robust and credible recovery programme.
Cargo growth rates across the different transport modes will always range above and below GDP. In Spain's case we note that activity at some ports in 2012 will run ahead of the general economy. A good example is Barcelona, where - as a result of its role as a Mediterranean hub - we are projecting that the total number of containers handled will grow by a healthy 6.3%. Next is rail freight, with tonnage up by 1.8%. Road freight will take third place with 1.3%, while air freight growth is forecast at a disappointing 0.8%.
Headline Industry Data
- Air freight volume is set to grow by 0.8% to reach 599,400 tonnes in 2012;
- Tonnage handled at the Port of Algeciras will grow by 2.9% to reach 74.45mn tonnes;
- Boxes handled at the Port of Barcelona will number 2.39mn in 2012, an increase of 6.3% on 2011 levels;
- Rail freight volume will grow by 1.8% to 20.88mn tonnes in 2012;
- Cargo handled by road is set to increase by 1.3% to 1.63bn tonnes.
Renfe Restructuring And Privatisation Planned
The government has announced plans to sell off part of Renfe, the state-owned rail company. Up to 45% of four separate operating companies will be offered to the private sector, including: Contren (intermodal services), Irion (iron and steel freight) and Pecovasa (automobiles and spare parts transport). BMI cautions, however, that the plan could encounter strong trade union opposition.
Private Sector Bids For Madrid-Barajas And Barcelona-El Prat
The Spanish government in September said it had received six bids each for Madrid-Barajas Airport and Barcelona's El Prat Airport as part of a planned privatisation. On offer is a 90.5% stake in each airport, with the government expecting to receive at least US$5.2bn for Madrid and US$2.25bn for Barcelona. A range of big international groups had submitted offers, including Ferrovial, Singapore's Changi Airport Group, France's Aeroports de Paris and Germany's Fraport. The government said it hoped to complete the transaction by December 2011.
Port of Barcelona Sees Box Terminal Expansion
A US$380mn financial agreement was signed in September 2011 to help fund the construction of Barcelona's new container terminal, Muelle Prat. The terminal is expected to raise the annual handling capacity of the port to 5.5mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), allowing it to emerge as the major logistic hub in the Mediterranean and the principal gateway to Southern Europe for Asian products. The terminal's developer, Terminal Catalunya (TERCAT), has claimed that it will be the most advanced semi-automated container terminal in the Mediterranean.
Key Risks To Outlook
The main downside risk to our Spanish freight forecasts is represented by the threat of contagion from the sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone. If this materialises, most likely in the shape of falling business confidence and bank difficulties, the country's main transport operators are likely to experience falling demand for their services as the economy could tip quickly back into recession. An upside risk is represented by the possibility that a new Spanish government - expected to take office in early 2012 - might be able to achieve a 'positive confidence shock' and persuade the markets that it has a robust and credible recovery programme.
Contents
Executive SummaryBMI View
Headline Industry Data
Key Industry Trends
Key Risks To Outlook
SWOT Analysis
Spain Freight Industry SWOT
Spain Political SWOT
Spain Economic SWOT
Spain Business Environment SWOT
Industry Trends and Developments
Multimodal/Logistics
Rail
Air
Maritime
Market Overview
Table: Major Infrastructure Projects
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Industry Forecast
Microeconomic Outlook
Air Freight
Table: Air Freight, 2008-2016
Maritime Freight
Table: Maritime Freight, 2008-2016
Rail Freight
Table: Rail Freight, 2008-2016
Road Freight
Table: Road Freight, 2008-2016
Trade
Table: Trade Overview, 2007-2016
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2016 (US$’000 and % change y-o-y)
Table: Spain's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Table: Spain's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Political Outlook
Regional Political Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Spain - Economic Activity
Company Profiles
Iberia Airlines Cargo
Renfe Cargo
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Transport Industry
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