Romania Freight Transport Report Q1 2012
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
All of Romania's freight transport modes are forecast to experience growth in 2012, albeit with mixed fortunes. In terms of annual growth, BMI expects the port sector to lead the way, although the Port of Constantza is due to see slower growth in 2012 following its recovery in 2011. We forecast total throughput at the port to increase by 7.19% in 2012, following a projected growth of 13.28% in 2011. Throughput is still recovering at the port, however, following a 32% drop in volume in 2009. 2011 was expected to mark the beginning of the recovery in box volumes at the port, with container levels projected to grow by 4.46%, bringing to an end three consecutive years of decline. A further growth of 4.25% is projected in 2012.
The country's road sector, which accounts for the bulk of tonnage throughput, will enjoy steady growth over the mid term, ahead of air, inland waterways and rail, in that order. Headline Industry Data
Romanian Government To Sell Stake In National Rail Company A decision by Romania's Supreme Council of National Defence (CSAT) will see the Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure attempt to sell off a 50% stake in national rail freight company CFR Marfa, according to a report by Balkans Business News in September 2011. DMHI Investment Highlights Continued Value Of European Shipbuilding
Daewoo-Mangalia Heavy Industries (DMHI)'s majority stakeholder, South Korea's Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (DSME), is to increase its investment in the Romanian yard, while Romania's President Traian Basescu has stated that more land is to be made available for the shipyard's expansion.
Five-Year Bucharest Contract For Tibbett Logistics
Tibbett Logistics plans to continue providing warehousing services at the Europolis Park, Bucharest, until 2016, reported Eye for Transport in October 2011. The facility receives and stores food imports, and distributes to 25 retail outlets in Romania.
Risks To Outlook
There are downside risks to our 2012 forecasts, with Romania's trade sector heavily exposed to the eurozone, where economic growth is slowing. BMI's Country Risk desk predicts economic growth in the eurozone to decline by 0.2% in 2012, with Italy, Ireland, Spain and France projected to experience fullyear contractions in GDP and Germany's economy forecast to grow by just 0.3%.
Romania's roads are in desperate need of investment, and this has therefore been a central objective of the government; however, it has struggled to translate proposals into actual improvements. For 2012, the transport ministry has announced plans to build 531km of new highways; however, we believe this is an ambitious goal and, based on precedent, largely unachievable.
The quality of Romania's roads has been awarded a score of 2.1 out of 7 by the World Economic Forum, which ranked it 137th out of 142 countries in its '2011/12 Global Competitiveness Report'. With six pan-European transport corridors running through Romania's borders, the poor quality of its roads has become not just a government, but an EU priority, winning the country a significant amount of financing from EU Cohesion Funds as a result.
All of Romania's freight transport modes are forecast to experience growth in 2012, albeit with mixed fortunes. In terms of annual growth, BMI expects the port sector to lead the way, although the Port of Constantza is due to see slower growth in 2012 following its recovery in 2011. We forecast total throughput at the port to increase by 7.19% in 2012, following a projected growth of 13.28% in 2011. Throughput is still recovering at the port, however, following a 32% drop in volume in 2009. 2011 was expected to mark the beginning of the recovery in box volumes at the port, with container levels projected to grow by 4.46%, bringing to an end three consecutive years of decline. A further growth of 4.25% is projected in 2012.
The country's road sector, which accounts for the bulk of tonnage throughput, will enjoy steady growth over the mid term, ahead of air, inland waterways and rail, in that order. Headline Industry Data
- 2012 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 3.45%.
- 2012 rail freight is forecast to increase by 1.20%.
- 2012 Port of Constantza throughput is forecast to grow by 7.19%.
- 2012 road freight is forecast to grow by 5.12%.
- 2012 inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 1.22%.
- 2012 total real trade growth is forecast at 7.10%.
Romanian Government To Sell Stake In National Rail Company A decision by Romania's Supreme Council of National Defence (CSAT) will see the Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure attempt to sell off a 50% stake in national rail freight company CFR Marfa, according to a report by Balkans Business News in September 2011. DMHI Investment Highlights Continued Value Of European Shipbuilding
Daewoo-Mangalia Heavy Industries (DMHI)'s majority stakeholder, South Korea's Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (DSME), is to increase its investment in the Romanian yard, while Romania's President Traian Basescu has stated that more land is to be made available for the shipyard's expansion.
Five-Year Bucharest Contract For Tibbett Logistics
Tibbett Logistics plans to continue providing warehousing services at the Europolis Park, Bucharest, until 2016, reported Eye for Transport in October 2011. The facility receives and stores food imports, and distributes to 25 retail outlets in Romania.
Risks To Outlook
There are downside risks to our 2012 forecasts, with Romania's trade sector heavily exposed to the eurozone, where economic growth is slowing. BMI's Country Risk desk predicts economic growth in the eurozone to decline by 0.2% in 2012, with Italy, Ireland, Spain and France projected to experience fullyear contractions in GDP and Germany's economy forecast to grow by just 0.3%.
Romania's roads are in desperate need of investment, and this has therefore been a central objective of the government; however, it has struggled to translate proposals into actual improvements. For 2012, the transport ministry has announced plans to build 531km of new highways; however, we believe this is an ambitious goal and, based on precedent, largely unachievable.
The quality of Romania's roads has been awarded a score of 2.1 out of 7 by the World Economic Forum, which ranked it 137th out of 142 countries in its '2011/12 Global Competitiveness Report'. With six pan-European transport corridors running through Romania's borders, the poor quality of its roads has become not just a government, but an EU priority, winning the country a significant amount of financing from EU Cohesion Funds as a result.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
Romania Freight Transport Industry SWOT
Romania Political SWOT
Romania Economic SWOT
Romania Business Environment SWOT
Industry Trends And Developments
Rail
Maritime
Logistics
Market Overview
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Industry Forecast
Road Freight
Table: Road Freight, 2009-2016
Rail Freight
Table: Rail Freight, 2009-2016
Air Freight
Table: Air Freight, 2009-2016
Maritime
Table: Maritime Freight – Port Of Constantza Throughput, 2009-2016
Inland Waterways
Table: Inland Waterway Freight, 2009-2016
Trade
Table: Trade Overview, 2009-2016
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 (US$mn and % change y-o-y))
Table: Romania’s Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Table: Romania’s Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Political Outlook
Regional Political Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Romania – GDP By Expenditure, % Of GDP
Company Profiles
TAROM Cargo
DB Schenker Romtrans
CFR Marfa
Country Snapshot: Romania Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2005-2010 (US$)
Romania Freight Transport Report Q1 2012
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Table: Average Annual Wages, 2006-2010
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Transport Industry
Sources Skip to top