Pakistan Shipping Report Q1 2014

Date: December 11, 2013
Pages: 111
US$ 1,295.00
Publisher: Business Monitor International
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: P619531DC33EN

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BMI Industry View

Short Term Growth Forecast Reduced We were expecting the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to turn hawkish at some point this year, but it did so suddenly and caught us (and many other analysts) a little bit by surprise in September when it increased its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 9.5%. Given ongoing concerns over inflation, we expect another 50bps worth of tightening is in the offing. The government's recently-approved Extended Fund Facility (EFF) agreement with the IMF also points to tightening conditions. The EFF requires Pakistan to rebuild its foreign currency reserves. As the country goes about buying dollars, the short-term effect is to weaken the value of the rupee (down 7.5% against the US dollar in the four months to mid-October) and reduce domestic demand. Consistent with the EFF, the recently elected Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government is tackling its large inherited fiscal deficit. The deficit was 8.0% of GDP last year and the government is seeking a reduction to 6.8% of GDP this year. As a first step the goods and service tax (GST) has already been increased, and energy subsidies have been reduced.

Taken together, in BMI's view what has emerged in recent months is a monetary and fiscal squeeze which is painful but needed to tackle some of the imbalances in the Pakistani economy. We believe it will reduce domestic consumption and gross fixed investment on the short term, something that will be only partially offset by a recovery in net exports as the eurozone and the US economies strengthen into 2014. As a result we are cutting our GDP growth outlook for the 2013/14 fiscal year (ending June 2014) to 3.4% (down from 4.0% previously). However we are holding our prediction of 4.0% growth in 2014/15.
BMI Industry View
Business Environment
Industry Forecast
Port Of Karachi Throughput
Port Of Qasim Throughput
  Table: Major Port Data, 2011-2018
  Table: Trade Overview
  Table: Key Trade Indicators
  Table: Main Import Partners, 2004-2011
  Table: Main Export Destinations, 2004-2011
Market Overview
Pakistan Container Shipping Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Company Profile
Pakistan National Shipping Corporation (PNSC)
Shipping - Global Industry View
Box Demand: Container Outlook Strengthening In 2014
Box Supply: Slowing New Vessel Deliveries To Decrease Overcapacity Pressure
  Table: Q313 Container Vessel Deliveries
  Table: 2013 Mega Vessel Orders
Box Rates: Rate Push In Preparation For 2014
  Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI Europe Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
  Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI USWC Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
Global Company Strategy
Maersk Line
Mediterranean Shipping Company
Evergreen Line
COSCO Container Lines Company
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Activity
Demographic Forecast
  Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
  Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
  Table: Pakistan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
  Table: Pakistan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
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Pakistan Shipping Report Q2 2014 US$ 1,295.00 Mar, 2014 · 112 pages
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