Oman Shipping Report Q1 2012
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
Oman continues to develop itself into a regional powerhouse for the shipping and transshipment of dry bulk goods such as iron ore. The latest development is the announcement that a new port is to be constructed at Duqm. Further port developments include the announcement that all cargo operations are to be moved from the Muscat port of Sultan Qaboos to Sohar by the end of 2012.
All of this is aided by Oman's position on the Arabian Sea, outside the Persian Gulf, enabling it to offer shorter shipping lines than ports within the congested body of water. This has led BMI to forecast particularly strong growth at the Port of Sohar in 2012.
Headline Industry Data
A'Duqum Development To Bolster Oman's Dry-Bulk Hub Credentials
The first stage of the US$2.6bn A'Duqum port is on course to be launched in mid-2012, with the Oman Drydock Company (ODC) set to launch commercial operations there. The port is due to cater for both dry bulk and containers, and highlights a drive in Oman's port sector to develop into a dry bulk hub for the Middle East. The port will also help fill the gap left by Port Sultan Qaboos (Muscat), which is due to become a tourist port.
Sohar Cements Iron Ore Hub Role: Oman's Port of Sohar has claimed a place in mining giant Vale's global supply chain, with the arrival of the first Valemax (also known as Chinamax) vessel at the port in September 2011. The port is developing into an iron ore hub for the Middle East, and the docking of Valemax vessels, coupled with the expansion of the pelletising plant, offers upside risk to our throughput projections.
Government Plans Shifting Of Commercial Operations To Sohar Port In Phases: The Omani government is planning to shift all commercial import and export activities from Muscat's Port Sultan Qaboos (PSQ) to the Port of Sohar in phases, according to officials. The government had earlier announced its plans to convert PSQ into a fully-fledged tourism port. PSQ operator Port Services Corporation (PSC) has an agreement with the Omani government to operate the port until December 12 2012. Saud bin Ahmed Al Nahari, the CEO of PSC, said that government authorities are in consultation with several departments to prepare a smooth transition plan.
Key Risks To Outlook
On the downside we stress that for the foreseeable future, Oman's economy will remain highly reliant on oil revenues. We caution that should prices record a more pronounced drop before the economy has been adequately diversified away from the energy sector, our positive outlook might prove overly optimistic. Additionally, the autocratic nature of the political regime in Oman (and elsewhere in the Gulf) will ensure that risks of an uptick in protest activity by pro-democracy demonstrators will remain elevated, which would generate uncertainty and in turn deter investors away from the market.
Should political violence spread in the Gulf region it could also provide upside risk to Oman, however, so long as it does not affect the country itself, as it sits outside the Straits of Hormuz and could provide an attractive option for companies unwilling to pass through the Bab al-Mandab.
Oman continues to develop itself into a regional powerhouse for the shipping and transshipment of dry bulk goods such as iron ore. The latest development is the announcement that a new port is to be constructed at Duqm. Further port developments include the announcement that all cargo operations are to be moved from the Muscat port of Sultan Qaboos to Sohar by the end of 2012.
All of this is aided by Oman's position on the Arabian Sea, outside the Persian Gulf, enabling it to offer shorter shipping lines than ports within the congested body of water. This has led BMI to forecast particularly strong growth at the Port of Sohar in 2012.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 container throughput at Salalah forecast to reach 3.94mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) on growth of 2.4%, and to average 1.9% to 2016.
- 2012 total tonnage throughput at Sohar forecast to reach 13.81mn tonnes, a year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 13.6%. Growth forecast to average 18.5% over the mid term, boosted by the transfer of Sultan Qaboos' cargo operations to the facility.
- 2012 Oman total trade real forecast at 3.4%, and to average 2.4% per annum to 2015.
A'Duqum Development To Bolster Oman's Dry-Bulk Hub Credentials
The first stage of the US$2.6bn A'Duqum port is on course to be launched in mid-2012, with the Oman Drydock Company (ODC) set to launch commercial operations there. The port is due to cater for both dry bulk and containers, and highlights a drive in Oman's port sector to develop into a dry bulk hub for the Middle East. The port will also help fill the gap left by Port Sultan Qaboos (Muscat), which is due to become a tourist port.
Sohar Cements Iron Ore Hub Role: Oman's Port of Sohar has claimed a place in mining giant Vale's global supply chain, with the arrival of the first Valemax (also known as Chinamax) vessel at the port in September 2011. The port is developing into an iron ore hub for the Middle East, and the docking of Valemax vessels, coupled with the expansion of the pelletising plant, offers upside risk to our throughput projections.
Government Plans Shifting Of Commercial Operations To Sohar Port In Phases: The Omani government is planning to shift all commercial import and export activities from Muscat's Port Sultan Qaboos (PSQ) to the Port of Sohar in phases, according to officials. The government had earlier announced its plans to convert PSQ into a fully-fledged tourism port. PSQ operator Port Services Corporation (PSC) has an agreement with the Omani government to operate the port until December 12 2012. Saud bin Ahmed Al Nahari, the CEO of PSC, said that government authorities are in consultation with several departments to prepare a smooth transition plan.
Key Risks To Outlook
On the downside we stress that for the foreseeable future, Oman's economy will remain highly reliant on oil revenues. We caution that should prices record a more pronounced drop before the economy has been adequately diversified away from the energy sector, our positive outlook might prove overly optimistic. Additionally, the autocratic nature of the political regime in Oman (and elsewhere in the Gulf) will ensure that risks of an uptick in protest activity by pro-democracy demonstrators will remain elevated, which would generate uncertainty and in turn deter investors away from the market.
Should political violence spread in the Gulf region it could also provide upside risk to Oman, however, so long as it does not affect the country itself, as it sits outside the Straits of Hormuz and could provide an attractive option for companies unwilling to pass through the Bab al-Mandab.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
Oman Shipping SWOT
Oman Political SWOT
Oman Economic SWOT
Oman Business Environment SWOT
Global Overview
Container Shipping
Executive Summary
Lines To Enter 2012 In The Red
Overcapacity To Plague Medium Term, Beware 2013
Table: Snapshot Of Container Lines' Orders
ETR Short And Long Term Benefits To Woo Carrier Expansion
Table: Top 20 World Ports
Port Operators To Face Tougher 2012 As Box Volumes Slow
Container Curse To Hit Box Manufacturers, But Outlook Strong
Dry Bulk
Executive Summary
Chinese Slowdown Threat Double Downside Risk To Dry Bulk Shipping
Vale May Find Solace With South Korea As Chinese Troubles Continue
Lines Need To Up Capacity Reduction Strategies To Ease Oversupply
Dry Bulk Lines In Choppy Waters, Possibility Of More Bankruptcies
Liquid Bulk
Executive Summary
Dirty Tanker Indices Not Very Buoyant
Differing Strategies, Differing Fortunes
Genmar Bankruptcy Just The Beginning
Survival Strategies For Floundering Tanker Operators
Rumoured Chinese Order Has Potential To Sink Crude Oil Shipping Sector
Industry Trends and Developments
Market Overview
Oman Dry Bulk Shipping Overview
Expansion At Salalah To Complement Sohar
Industry Forecast
Port Of Salalah
Port Of Sohar
Table: Major Port Data, 2008-2016
Trade
Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2016
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2016
Table: Main Import Partners, 2002-2009
Table: Main Export Partners, 2002-2009
Company Profiles
Oman Shipping Company (OSC)
Maersk Line
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
CMA CGM
COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)
Hapag-Lloyd
Evergreen Line
APL
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)
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