Netherlands Freight Transport Report Q1 2012
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI View
The Dutch economy will lose some momentum in coming quarters as export growth continues to slow and consumer confidence remains fragile. Moreover, fiscal austerity measures should keep the job market under pressure. Nonetheless, we do not expect the economic recovery to be derailed and forecast real GDP growth of 2.2% in 2011, before a modest acceleration to 2.3% in 2012.
Industry-specific factors still allow us to be a little more optimistic about freight transport than the narrow national economy might indicate. This is because freight in the Netherlands receives a huge boost from Rotterdam, the largest container port in Europe The port is again set to see bulk cargo and container volume growth at above-GDP levels. A similar point can be made about the gateway role of Schiphol Airport and the country's rail system, closely linked to the wider European network. In fact, shipping and port activity, air freight and rail will all grow faster than GDP; however, road haulage will lag behind.
Headline Industry Data
US$10.2bn Nord Stream Pipeline Officially Opened
The Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, attended the opening of one of Europe's largest transport infrastructure projects in early November 2011. Along with German chancellor Angela Merkel, French prime minister Francois Fillon and Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, he was celebrating the launch of the 1,200km gas pipeline built to link Vyborg near St Petersburg with Lubmin on the German Baltic coast, circumventing the overland route via Ukraine, Belarus, and Poland, that has previously been at the centre of a series of political and pricing disputes. Dutch company Nederlandse Gasunie has a 9% stake in the project.
Air France-KLM Trims Freight Capacity
Franco-Dutch airline Air France-KLM said it had cut back its full freighter-only flights by 8.8%, in view of difficult air cargo markets. The reduction was a major factor in a 5.2% year-on-year fall in air freight volume registered in October, with capacity utilisation down by four percentage points to 66.3%. Cargo revenue also dipped in most major regions.
Moderate Growth At Port Of Rotterdam
The operating company at the Port of Rotterdam said tonnage grew by 1.7% in the first nine months of 2011 to 327mn tonnes. Chief executive Hans Smits expected growth in cargo traffic to slow down in the fourth quarter as a result of persistent turmoil on financial markets and the related negative impact on producer and consumer confidence. Despite this, Smits expected cargo traffic to grow by 1-2% in 2011, compared to 2010.
Key Risks To Outlook
Since our last quarterly report the main downside risk to our freight forecasts has become more acute: the spread of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis has battered the credibility of the euro. BMI has 'priced in' current concerns into our forecasts. Although we believe the crisis will ultimately be contained (we do not see a major break-up of the eurozone) it is possible that the associated downturn will be deeper than we expect, and that the Netherlands' relative resilience will be weaker than we expect. Such a situation would affect Dutch freight transport in a range of ways: On the one hand, lower cross-European demand would hit exports and freight demand; on the other falling consumer confidence levels would trigger a sharp fall in investment in the industry, with development plans being out on hold.
BMI View
The Dutch economy will lose some momentum in coming quarters as export growth continues to slow and consumer confidence remains fragile. Moreover, fiscal austerity measures should keep the job market under pressure. Nonetheless, we do not expect the economic recovery to be derailed and forecast real GDP growth of 2.2% in 2011, before a modest acceleration to 2.3% in 2012.
Industry-specific factors still allow us to be a little more optimistic about freight transport than the narrow national economy might indicate. This is because freight in the Netherlands receives a huge boost from Rotterdam, the largest container port in Europe The port is again set to see bulk cargo and container volume growth at above-GDP levels. A similar point can be made about the gateway role of Schiphol Airport and the country's rail system, closely linked to the wider European network. In fact, shipping and port activity, air freight and rail will all grow faster than GDP; however, road haulage will lag behind.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 Port of Rotterdam bulk throughput forecast is 4.9%, following growth of 5.8% in 2011.
- 2012 Port of Amsterdam throughput forecast is 9.4%, following growth of 11.2% in 2011.
- 2012 rail freight total tonnage volume growth is forecast to grow 6.1%, following growth of 7.5% in 2011.
- 2012 total trade growth forecast is 3.8%, down from 4.7% the previous year.
US$10.2bn Nord Stream Pipeline Officially Opened
The Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, attended the opening of one of Europe's largest transport infrastructure projects in early November 2011. Along with German chancellor Angela Merkel, French prime minister Francois Fillon and Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, he was celebrating the launch of the 1,200km gas pipeline built to link Vyborg near St Petersburg with Lubmin on the German Baltic coast, circumventing the overland route via Ukraine, Belarus, and Poland, that has previously been at the centre of a series of political and pricing disputes. Dutch company Nederlandse Gasunie has a 9% stake in the project.
Air France-KLM Trims Freight Capacity
Franco-Dutch airline Air France-KLM said it had cut back its full freighter-only flights by 8.8%, in view of difficult air cargo markets. The reduction was a major factor in a 5.2% year-on-year fall in air freight volume registered in October, with capacity utilisation down by four percentage points to 66.3%. Cargo revenue also dipped in most major regions.
Moderate Growth At Port Of Rotterdam
The operating company at the Port of Rotterdam said tonnage grew by 1.7% in the first nine months of 2011 to 327mn tonnes. Chief executive Hans Smits expected growth in cargo traffic to slow down in the fourth quarter as a result of persistent turmoil on financial markets and the related negative impact on producer and consumer confidence. Despite this, Smits expected cargo traffic to grow by 1-2% in 2011, compared to 2010.
Key Risks To Outlook
Since our last quarterly report the main downside risk to our freight forecasts has become more acute: the spread of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis has battered the credibility of the euro. BMI has 'priced in' current concerns into our forecasts. Although we believe the crisis will ultimately be contained (we do not see a major break-up of the eurozone) it is possible that the associated downturn will be deeper than we expect, and that the Netherlands' relative resilience will be weaker than we expect. Such a situation would affect Dutch freight transport in a range of ways: On the one hand, lower cross-European demand would hit exports and freight demand; on the other falling consumer confidence levels would trigger a sharp fall in investment in the industry, with development plans being out on hold.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
Netherlands Freight Industry SWOT
Netherlands Political SWOT
Netherlands Economic SWOT
Netherlands Business Environment SWOT
Industry Trends And Developments
Multimodal/Logistics
Air
Maritime
Market Overview
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Industry Forecast
Air Freight
Table: Air Freight, 2009-2016
Maritime Freight
Table: Maritime Freight, 2009-2016
Rail Freight
Table: Rail Freight, 2009-2016
Road Freight
Table: Road Freight, 2009-2016
Inland Waterways
Table: Inland Waterway Freight, 2009-2016
Trade
Table: Trade Overview, 2009-2016
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
Table: The Netherlands' Main Import Partners (US$mn)
Table: The Netherlands' Main Export Partners (US$mn)
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Regional Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Netherlands – Macroeconomic Activity, 2008-2015
Table: BMI’s Netherlands Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts, 2013-2020
Company Profiles
Geodis Wilson
Air France- KLM Cargo
DB Schenker Rail Netherlands
Country Snapshot: Netherlands Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2000-2005
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Transport Industry
Sources Skip to top