Malaysia Autos Report Q3 2011
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
Following a record year for vehicle sales in 2010, we expect 2011 to be a tougher year following the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, which is likely to have an impact on available supplies of parts and finished vehicles. While we still forecast relatively strong growth in both production and sales in 2011, we have revised our forecast for both indicators down slightly from our previous projections, to reflect slower growth resulting from supply chain issues. Although total vehicle sales in March 2011 were up 12.7% y-o-y, we believe this includes buyers anticipating a shortage in the months to come, particularly as sales for February actually fell by 0.66% y-o-y. Therefore, we expect much slower sales growth in Q211.
Despite growth of 11.8% in passenger car sales in March, we believe this was due to concerns about supplies of vehicles and parts from Japan and have revised down our sales and production forecasts for 2011. Although car sales for Q111 were 8.2% higher y-o-y, we have lowered our growth projection for the segment to 4.5% with slower sales expected in Q2 and beyond, depending on the length of production stoppages in Japan. Similarly, we have now lowered our commercial vehicle segment forecasts, again based on supply concerns, particularly as commercial vehicle growth outperformed passenger cars in March when total sales spiked, which could signal a more pronounced slowdown in the segment than for passenger cars if more sales have been brought forward. We have lowered our commercial vehicle forecast to sales growth of 3%.
Major carmakers are still attracted to Malaysia for its potential, as any supply constraints are likely to be short lived. German carmaker Volkswagen (VW) announced in March 2011 it will make Malaysia its regional hub for South East Asia, following the signing of its partnership agreement with local firm DRBHicom in December 2010. The project will create 800 new jobs and see VW producing 30,000 units per year at the company's Pekang plant by 2018, by which time VW aims to be the world's leading carmaker. While the initial agreement covered production of the Passat and Jetta sedans, which is still on course to begin by the end of 2011, talks are ongoing to add another model to the line-up.
There are also opportunities in the alternative fuel segment, as Malaysia's Transport Ministry is finalising a standardisation policy, which will enable the introduction of electric vehicles (EVs) by June 2011. BMI believes a strong government policy is vital for the success of major product innovations or changes in the industry. A tax break on hybrid car purchases has already proven this to be the case in Malaysia, where companies will look for similar success with EVs. According to Datuk Solah Mat Hassan, directorgeneral of the Road Transport Department, the standardisation regulations will cover the 'basics', such as battery type, maximum speed and braking systems.
Following a record year for vehicle sales in 2010, we expect 2011 to be a tougher year following the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, which is likely to have an impact on available supplies of parts and finished vehicles. While we still forecast relatively strong growth in both production and sales in 2011, we have revised our forecast for both indicators down slightly from our previous projections, to reflect slower growth resulting from supply chain issues. Although total vehicle sales in March 2011 were up 12.7% y-o-y, we believe this includes buyers anticipating a shortage in the months to come, particularly as sales for February actually fell by 0.66% y-o-y. Therefore, we expect much slower sales growth in Q211.
Despite growth of 11.8% in passenger car sales in March, we believe this was due to concerns about supplies of vehicles and parts from Japan and have revised down our sales and production forecasts for 2011. Although car sales for Q111 were 8.2% higher y-o-y, we have lowered our growth projection for the segment to 4.5% with slower sales expected in Q2 and beyond, depending on the length of production stoppages in Japan. Similarly, we have now lowered our commercial vehicle segment forecasts, again based on supply concerns, particularly as commercial vehicle growth outperformed passenger cars in March when total sales spiked, which could signal a more pronounced slowdown in the segment than for passenger cars if more sales have been brought forward. We have lowered our commercial vehicle forecast to sales growth of 3%.
Major carmakers are still attracted to Malaysia for its potential, as any supply constraints are likely to be short lived. German carmaker Volkswagen (VW) announced in March 2011 it will make Malaysia its regional hub for South East Asia, following the signing of its partnership agreement with local firm DRBHicom in December 2010. The project will create 800 new jobs and see VW producing 30,000 units per year at the company's Pekang plant by 2018, by which time VW aims to be the world's leading carmaker. While the initial agreement covered production of the Passat and Jetta sedans, which is still on course to begin by the end of 2011, talks are ongoing to add another model to the line-up.
There are also opportunities in the alternative fuel segment, as Malaysia's Transport Ministry is finalising a standardisation policy, which will enable the introduction of electric vehicles (EVs) by June 2011. BMI believes a strong government policy is vital for the success of major product innovations or changes in the industry. A tax break on hybrid car purchases has already proven this to be the case in Malaysia, where companies will look for similar success with EVs. According to Datuk Solah Mat Hassan, directorgeneral of the Road Transport Department, the standardisation regulations will cover the 'basics', such as battery type, maximum speed and braking systems.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
Malaysia Autos Industry SWOT
Political SWOT
Economic Industry SWOT
Business Environment SWOT
Global Overview
Table: BMI's Core Views For The Automotives Industry
Business Environment Ratings
Table: Business Environment Ratings -- Auto Industry Asia Pacific
Asia Pacific Regional Overview
One Supplier's Crisis Is Another's Opportunity
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
Table: Indonesia - Economic Activity
Industry Forecast Scenario
Production And Sales
Table: Malaysia Autos Sector: Historical Data And Forecasts
Trade
Table: Malaysia Autos Sector: Historical Data And Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Table: Malaysian Passenger Vehicle Sales
Industry Developments
Passenger Car Segment – Forecast and Analysis
Production And Sales
Table: Malaysia Autos Sector: Historical Data And Forecasts
Company Developments
Commercial Vehicles – Forecast and Analysis
Table: Malaysia Autos Sector: Historical Data And Forecasts
Motorcycles – Forecast and Analysis
Production And Sales
Table: Malaysia Autos Sector: Historical Data And Forecasts
Industry Developments
Company Monitor
Company Profiles
Proton
Perodua
Toyota
Honda
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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